System talk

[Keith]

WAS Part 3

I am a novice in the world of gambling forums but two things in particular stood out for me during my 8 months of participation at PL.

Many tipsters would trot out stats of past meetings over say 10 years between two sides. So what! Others would tell us that the form stats this season were team A 9-2-3 and team B 3-5-7, Therefore team A must win. Statistics have a role to play but IMO a minor one only.

The odds compilers know the stats just as well as everyone else and they take such factors into account when giving us their overound book. We have to find other reasons to bet.

The other thing I noticed was the mindset of many punters. They can't seem to accept that a team at a big price has a reasonable chance of winning. If I posted an opinion that say Blackpool at 5/4 were a good bet to beat Wrexham I would get feedback and a fair amount of enthusiasm from others.

However, if I suggested that Crewe at 3/1 or Millwall at 9/2 were worthy of a maximum 10pt stake then invariably such opinions were met with silence from everyone.

You have to get away from the idea that there are an abundance of "bankers" out there. Yes we'd all love to have a strike rate of close to 100% but it will never happen. Mine is only about 40% but if the price is right then the profit will follow.

I must have posted bets at PL of in excess of 350 but only about 6 would have been odds on chances. My profit on turnover has been over 16% in each of the last 2 years

I could write more but it would only put you to sleep.

In summary, stats deserve no more than a passing glance. Firstly look for reasons why a team won't win rather than why someone might win. Forget that elusive search for bankers. Read as much as you can (The Grimsby Evening Telegraph is on the net) and know the form book inside out.

Be bold and be brave. If you've done your homework and you can't understand why Burnley are 6/1 at home to beat Liverpool reserves then double your stake.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Great posts WAS and I agree with that vast majority of what you say except for the stats bit.

Like you I have no interest in how Team A has performed against Team B in the past few seasons. The fact that Liverpool with John Barnes in the side often beat Man Utd with Norman Whiteside in theirs, has no bearing on the two Premiership teams today.

However I do look at a teams recent 6 game form and I do look at their recent home and away record.

Furthermore odds compiler's at different bookies often come out with a different book to their competitors (I found Odds Comparison good to compare) and you can find real value as a result. If most so called experts who are odds compiler's come out with a price of 4/5 on the home side and Paddy Power quotes 5/4 I would often give that a little look. True value can be found here.

By the way I don't have a system other than to look for value. My posts and bets are all over the place on the PL, and as you will see - should anyone bar me care to examine - I'm up for the past two seasons.

[Doc]

Was, and others.

There is only one way to consistently turn a profit on gambline, and that is to be able to identify value - i.e. the price you are being offered is greater than the fair price (the inverse of the true probability of the event happening).

In terms of identifying the value, one might classify two approaches:

1) Studying form, assessing all the qualitative information and coming to a conclusion as to what the fair price is - then taking 'value prices'. For many punters the 'fair price' might never be explictly defined. To take an extreme example - Argentina played the Lions in rugby last night, a game in which the Lions were priced at 1.02 to win. Laying the Lions to win was effectively backing them not to win at 51.0. Just looking at that, I felt that Argentina had a better chance than 1 in 51 of winning. Without further study I couldn't be precise, but 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 seems in the right ball park. There was value therefore in opposing the Lions.
2) Developing a set of rules or rubrics that can be applied to a set of data, which if anyone else applied the same rules, would produce the same selections as having value. IMNSHO, if these rules or rubrics don't produce an estimate of the fair price, then they are unlikely to work long term. This approach is what I would term a 'system'

Some punters will mix and match between the two approaches, but I would say a 'system' is characterised by the latter.

[ONEDUNME]

I'm not one to blow my own trumpet. Just as I'm not one to inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide (in other word's, I'm lying) but I've started five system threads on the internet and every fukkin one of them is in profit as I type this.

Together, they add up to the best part of two grand I reckon.

The reason I mention this is not to gloat (oh alright then it is) but to ask how I can possibly do this and then ..HOW THE FUCK I CAN MAKE SUCH DAMNED STUPID BETS AND LOSE MONEY ON A REGULAR BASIS.

I can spend hours working out weekend bets on football. Lose a bit here, win a bit there, end up (for instance) only 20 quid up on a Saturday after all that effort (granted I enjoy it too). The I'll go out for a pint and watch a Sunday game, buy bookings and lose 60 quid! Where's the sense in that

[christianu]

Thanks for your informative post ONEDUNME How great are you again?

What happened to your swimming against the tide system? Now you were being an ass then Tellin us were all shit. I had 2 out of 4 profitiable systems and im not complaining, i think there'll do well for me next year. Betting on weekend football is all great fun but oyu end up betting on games you dont even feel that strongly about so thats why i love a good system.

Are we talking about systems still? Nah, come on lets have some good ideas for a system laid down then we can work from there. Please

[traeth]

[quote=Was]WAS Part 3


Many tipsters would trot out stats of past meetings over say 10 years between two sides. So what! Others would tell us that the form stats this season were team A 9-2-3 and team B 3-5-7, Therefore team A must win. Statistics have a role to play but IMO a minor one only.

QUOTE]

Totally agree with what you say about past meeting ,I cannot believe that a fixture 5 years ago has relevance on this season's fixture as "fortunes" change - Chelsea are not the same team as 5 years ago, Everton results are not the same as they were in 2004/2005 as 2003/2004 and few people forsaw their improvement [including me] Bolton have consistently improved in recent years , Charlton stop playing after 40 points , Fulham played excellent football after they realised they were safe.

I am a firm believer in current form i.e. their last 4 games playing away if the fixture is away and current form playing at home if fixture is at home. This makes predicting at the start of the season difficult and I tend to take into account if they have "anything to play for " at the end of the season.I am usually looking for the away win , which do the better value.


One of my claim to fame that I am proud of is that one of my selection was used in the "swimming against the tide" system

[christianu]

I know you all dont beleive in the last 10 yrs meetings between two sides and i generally dont, but what about bogey sides?

For example City have never beaten Middlesborough in the premiership nor for about 15 years. Season before last they had zero shots on target and won 1-0 because of a flukey own goal. there keeper made some amazing saves. This season they have a free kick all game in the midst of being cramped in there own are and draw. We miss a penalty in the last few seconds just for a laugh too. This kind of thing has happened no end iwth Boro.

[MickeyPaul]

I don't read much into head to heads outwith the actual season either but I do believe in psychology and I never rule out the prospect of what appears to be tiny, negative/positive things like 'bogey teams' get into a player's mind and affecting performance. Always best to keep an open mind imo.