System talk

[christianu]

Theres not much activity in this thread and probably wont be until new season but doesnt stop us discussing some. There used to be a big discussion thread on the PL but i couldnt make out what they were saying most of the time and there was an awful lot of talking but not much action. Just because you have strange mathematical forumlas dont necassarilly mean you have a good system. It could be as simple as you like.

All last season i was testing some systems/stratergies. The 2/1+ system and the Total goals one had a lot of potential. Both sustained profits for long periods but both needed a bit more discipline. I wasnt and still am not sure wether to use a level staking plan. Is that the best way forward?

If you like, post down any ideas for systems you have in here, whats that one you were working on for 20 years Mickey?? What about the Morton system Komp? Back against them away and for them at home. Ive heard great things about the PP's systems, any chance your ideas could be shared over here. From my betting i just want to come up with a profitable system that i only use instead of bettin randomly accross the board, but is a sustained profitable sysetm achievable?? OOOOooo ill let you answer

[Doc]

succesful systems will rarely be simple IMO - otherwise everyone would do them and the advantage would disappear

IMO, the first thing with any system is to develop a concept, e.g. the 'why' a system might possibly work. Then you try to find a way of formalising this - i.e. gathering and processing whatever data you require. Then you go about back-testing it, e.g. football-data.co.uk

have a look around PP and you'll find lots of successful systems. If you have specific questions, ask. I may be able to give you the answer

[christianu]

Originally Posted by DoctorOfDanger

succesful systems will rarely be simple IMO - otherwise everyone would do them and the advantage would disappear

Just trying to encourage people who have little knowledge ons systems to put forward ideas. You always have to start with an idea, i just meant that you dint have to have an in-depth idea to post. Just wanted a starting point. Should of made that clear. I will do DOD.

[christianu]

Thanks for your response as well

[Doc]

absolutely - first step is the concept.

Anyone got one, post it here....and we'll take it from there.

[MickeyPaul]

To be honest, Christian, I get a bit funny when talking about my system (I'm all secretive). It was originally a draws system and I only had the league tables in the paper to work from as a kid but I managed 5/10 on my first attempt after spending the whole night working my way through every fixture in Britain and awarding each match a number based on my calculations. :think

I returned to it during my spell at PL (anyone recall page after page of my stuff in that ezmembers forum? ) and have started calling it my 'superiority system'. I think it was near 100% in Scots Div 3 actually and it did find me a few crackers from all leagues I may have otherwise overlooked. I aint telling you what it's all about though, so there.

But I might next season so stay tuned.

[traeth]

AS previously mentioned if systems were simple the could be copied/replicated and sold to mugs on ebay after you've done the work. It is because of this that many people are secretive.
As Mickey mentioned getting a draws system to work would be finacially rewarding as draws prices are very similar about 3.25/3.50 .
I realise that back testing systems is a proven policy that should be carried out .
I have not checked any of the prevous seasons results , but this seasons results would have returned a profit , but it requires futher research over the summer.
My betting stratedy / system will be the :
three promoted teams to draw when playing away

the "why" - to survive the EPL these teams require points away from home and to win away in the EPL is difficult [ Norwich did not suceed at all this season]

should the bet be :
three singles
three doubles
trixie
patent

Opinions and comments would be appreciated

I hope I've explained clearly enough

cheers

[christianu]

I like the idea Trath but let me point out again i was tyring to encourage people to come forward and discuss ideas for a system when i said it could be as simple as you like.

Bit pressed for time at the mo so ill comment more later. Initially i like the idea as the promted teams set there stall out away from home and youve summed it up pretty well really.

The staking plan id be adamant should just be 3 singles. 1/3 returning a profit instead of relying on 2/3 for a profitable return. Ive seen a lot of people do well on draws in the PL systems this year so its something id like to get into.

[Doc]

1) singles
2) I'd be careful. Draws are very unpredictable IMO (and that of many very talented and successful gamblers). In particular I believe this year has seen a lot of draws, certainly in the big games. I've done much worse on homes and particularly aways this season than usual, but have kicked ass with my draw bets.

[christianu]

I checked the PP DOD and i will have a much longer look later on this week, i was a little unsure where to look. I hope you stay around these parts in the systems area as im very much a novice and would like all the input i can get. Thanks.

[Doc]

The betting theory section might be a good place to start Christianu

I'll be dropping in here alright. However, it may be worthwhile making the odd post at PP too - it will get a wider audience of systems people there I think - there are some good guys over there who don't visit here AFAIK.

[christianu]

Yeah i looked in the Betting theory Just a little bit different style to the PL. Anyway ill stop mentioning that god forsaken place. Ill have a good look this week then and sign up.

[Keith]

I don't have a system as such in the way that most people seem to think that there is some sort of magical mathematical formula to give consistent returns.

If I had to sum up my strategy it would be called "the hard work and remaining disciplined" approach. I promise there is no substitute for the hard work bit and it is the only way to be in a position to know as much and preferably more than the odds compilers. These people are highly professional and they do a great job.

The advantage that we have is that whereas they have to price up every match and they have to do so days before the event, we do not have to bet on every opportunity and we can wait until greater knowledge is in our domain.

Most gamblers are lazy and undisciplined which is fine if it is no more than a recreational pastime and they want to spend their pound in this way. Personally I gamble because I like to be right and earn a few pennies at the same time.

Value is the key This word is the most used and least understood. The likely outcome of an event compared to the price on offer? A personal opinion but you can only be aided in forming a view by having as much information as possible at your finger tips. That brings us back to the hard work.

Just a couple of tips will follow in a seperate post (I'm scared of typing loads and then losing it- especially with the recent gremlins)

[Keith]

I shall continue to bore you with my thoughts:

When looking at a betting event try not to plump automatically for a team/horse/dog in form and likewise don't decide to select something which is the best out of generally bad form either.

I look at a football match and try to work out first and foremost why a team is unlikely to win. I then see if the opposition are good enough to take advantage. I will then only bet if the price is right

If a game has any of the three results as a reasonable outcome then I very rarely get involved. I think the price of one team would have to be 4/1+ before I would take an interest.

Some of the factors in deciding whether a game has been price wrongly for me include

a). Reputation. How often are Man U, Liverpool, Sheff Wed or Real Mdrid priced up on the basis of the past achievments.

b). The odds compilers under or over estimating recent form. They often fail to take into account that there may have been good reasons or excuses for certain recent results. The hard work that you have done week in week out will give you an advantage in that with your knowledge you can spot were they have erred.

c). Most importantly for my strategy are team changes through injury or suspension. IMO these factors are the most likely to affect a teams performance and give us a greater chance of pulling off a winning bet at a nice price.

You have to scour the local newspapers and fanzines to get the best information.

The BBC may tell you that Rochdale have 6 players out but they don't say that 3 have been injured for 6 months and the other 3 were only fringe players.

However, the Rochdale evening newspaper will give more in depth information and the fanzines will often tell you which players will be truly missed.

Anyway I could and may probably write more but I've got to go home now

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Well you kind of answered what im away to ask Was as i was thinking, does a system have to have a formula to it? As i was looking to doing a system as such, but it would just go by my own back ground reading into stats etc and would contain no formulas.

Would that count as a "system"??