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Re: Baseball Streaks XXIII: The Final Fight
Well I think about half of the loss for the month is attibutable to having double stakes on the 'double streak' games that have had such a poor record so far. Looking at last years data I do not see that it was ever justified in doing this, so I will be going to flat 1 point stakes on everything from now on.
So, that staking mistake apart, a 5 point loss for April is acceptable as it was always a bit of a dodgy decision to start right at the beginning of the season.
Another plus point is that the games that have been filtered out are showing heavier losses, despite the yankees woeful efforts which have delivered 3 wins by teams against them at odds of over 2.3. The trouble is the yankees opponents are so often over-priced, but they don't usually win this often. This distortion is going to continue until the yankees start winning again or the odds finally start to reflect reality instead of history.
I have also been keeping a record of the streaks of the opposition teams because it seems to me that, all things being equal, a team on, say, a 3 game winning streak will win more times in the long run against, for example, one on a 2 game losing streak than one on a 2 game winning streak. Obviously 1 month's data is insufficient, but it may be another filter to try later in the season.
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Baseball Streaks XXIII: The Final Fight
- for those of you who don't understand calendars as well as me - and I will be making a couple of tweaks and then starting tomorrow I will be backing the selections with cold, hard cash again.
- pretty frightening stuff.
