Keemas Bogeys

[keemanan]

Ok, for the last 200 years I've been thinking about bogey teams , the myth , the legend that is etc...
well the time has come to put my sizeable ass on the line and get the bugger started.

I propose to test this system using the following 'logic'
Man City never lose at Norwich , so I went to www.footymad.net , slipped down to the head to head section
, I believe the records begin in 1939 so it's quite comprehensive.
Anyway lo and behold the record shows that in 28 meetings at Carrow rd , Man City won 9 (32%) and drew 14 (50%)

That's quite comprehensive I'd say .

critera:
Away's only (may consider draws later on)
The % must be equal to or greater than 32% away win
Home side % less than or equal to away sides % (this may change to less than 20%)
More than 10 matches contested
equal stakes of 10 points
starting bank 200 points
Dead easy no?
it's a 'perfect system' to coin a phrase - no thinking required
Here goes:

Round 1
---------
Premiership - no qualifiers
ccc 1 qualifier
Burnley 38% Reading 38% 13 matches
League 1 - 1 qualifier
Bristol City 28% Nottingham Forrest 40% 32 matches
League 2 - no qualifiers
Conf - no qualifiers



Bets
Reading 10 points 1.83 (sporting odds)
Forrest 10 points 2.88 (stan james)


starting bank - 200 points
staked 20 points
returns 0 points
c/f bank - 180 points - 2 results to come




edited to includes all leagues plus added 10 match rule

[keemanan]

ooh so close

Reading won 3-0
forest drew 1-1

starting bank -200
staked -20
returns 18.3
new bank 198.3 (-1.7)

[Swooperman]

I like this Keem, nice idea.

Daves gonna come in & say H2Hs have nothing to do with chances of winning, you know that dont you

[keemanan]

aye , he's the best gambler on the forum dont you know :loon
he even made gett1ns famous 'people i can learn from' List (now almost as legendary as Schindlers)

Nah he's ok , you cant get him riled.

It may be worthwhile sticking in the draw too , maybe as a 5 pointer
aye I will . I should have from the start really as it makes sense , I mean to say if city were in div2 and Norwich top of the prem , a city draw would come under bogey

seeing as though I aint backing this up with cash can I change my bets?

adjudication required!!!!!..... who's in charge in this forum????? is it you swoops?

[Swooperman]

Think its a free for all Keem, not sure. I was told I couldnt do it 'just cos I had a system' if I remember rightly

Do what you like, its your system, just edit it & note it, I would

[Swooperman]

Its ODM your screwed mate.........

[keemanan]

nah swoops i'll add it for next weekend, systems evolve I suppose.

anyroad at least I put the rules up unlike mr selfish ODM.



christ he's getting some stick this weekend

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by keemanan

christ he's getting some stick this weekend

Yes I'm not sure I'll sleep tonight

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Swooperman

I like this Keem, nice idea.

Daves gonna come in & say H2Hs have nothing to do with chances of winning, you know that dont you

That's exactly what I thought when I saw this thread, and I stick to that idea. I've yet to hear a convincing argument for why H2Hs make a difference.

Erm, what's Gett1n's list?

[gigo72]

Dave (with a capital D) that has to be the silliest nic I've ever seen.
You need to get out more mate.

[keemanan]

Yes dave but this is a simple pure mathmatical system surely even you can admire the beauty of it's mechanics?

All football fans who have even followed their clubs know what a bogey team is . Obviously you being a cold betting computer all this "DOES NOT COMPUTE"
But I aim to prove you wrong if it takes ten years to turn a profit!!!!

[jasper_77]

The way I see it is that you have to decide whether head to heads can influence a teams performance. In pure statistical terms, the fact that a team might not have lost away at, say, Carrow Road in their last ten meetings is the same as saying the last ten coin tosses were heads therefore the next one will be heads as well. If you believe that a record like that actually influences the way the teams play so that the away team maybe plays more aggressively and the home team is more nervous, then maybe there is something in it.

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by keemanan

Yes dave but this is a simple pure mathmatical system surely even you can admire the beauty of it's mechanics?

All football fans who have even followed their clubs know what a bogey team is . Obviously you being a cold betting computer all this "DOES NOT COMPUTE"
But I aim to prove you wrong if it takes ten years to turn a profit!!!!

I hope you do prove me wrong, I just don't see it happening

[CJ Mars]

Sorry Keema. I've got to (mainly) agree with Dave here. I fail to see the relevance of games played 10 (even 5 years ago) to be honest. I think there might be some sort of correlation with distance travelled to grounds but I think the H to H thing is a quirk more than anything else. There also might be a short term regional thing (like the Virgin trains thing and how crap say Boro are in London).

I'm actually a big fan of using H to H in tennis but that's more a clash of styles thing between players in a relatively short period of time than football teams whose styles and methods of play will be continually evolving and changeing over the years.

Best of luck anyway. I think you'd have a better chance of turning money with this if you were laying the "derby underdog" as well.

[keemanan]

derby's are a whole new system I think CJ

I'm actually a big fan of using H to H in tennis but that's more a clash of styles

That's kind of tied in with the whole bogey thing , could be that Norwich are a traditional attacking team and City are allowed to play at Carrow road and that's to City's advantage.

Remember 'boring' Arsenal , well throughout the 70's and even up to Graham's title winners they were boring and cagey. leeds are dirty , west Ham are flamboyant as are Spurs. Boro are boring and Newcastle always have a high scoring number 9's, well you know what I mean.
this system get's to the heart of the emotional side of the game but uses statistical rules to drive it. It's a beautiful game and a beautiful system.
I wont be disuaded