Opinions re: Michael Owen please

[Seen]

A friend of mine is thinking about betting M Owen not to break the record for England goals scored (10/3)....

He's on 38 and needs 12 more to beat the record of 49.

Going on his recent injury record (horrendous) and the fact that he clearly has lost a yard of pace, how likely (and therefore is 10/3 value) is it that he'll reach 50 goals?

He'll be 28 this year, what would he international retirement age be expected to be?

He has to have daily rehab sessions EVERY DAY for the rest of his career, apparantly, and has played just 18 matches for Newcastle in 2.5 years.

Any opinions?

[keemanan]

So he's going to tie up his money until Owen retires from England?
He may go on for another 4 years miinmum

[Seen]

Originally Posted by keemanan

So he's going to tie up his money until Owen retires from England?
He may go on for another 4 years miinmum

He's okay with that, he's not short of a few bob (the bet will probs be £5K minimum) and is happy to wait as long as he takes (he only plays antepost/longterm markets).

Can you see Owen playing for England when he's 34? Can he possibly stay injury free? Has he still got the class to score regularly at the top level?

[mrmuzeman]

Its an interesting one.

In the last 10 years (1998-2007) England have played 112 games (not inc the 4 games that are to be played in the remainder of 2007). So basically they play 11-12 games per year.

Owens England goalscoring record is 38 in 84 so 1 goal for every 2.21 games played.

If we presume he scores at the same rate he has in his career so far then how many games will he have to play to score 12 more goals? 26.52 games, so 26 or 27 games more and he should break the record.

Add the 4 games more to be played this year to the amount of games to be played in 2008 and 2009 and you get the 27 games required.

If Owen played every one of those games and scored at the same rate hed break the record basically on his 30th birthday.

However out of the 112 England games played ive said about, that was exactly the same period that Owens international career started - and he has played in 84 of them, so he has been injured for exactly 25% of the games.

Presuming his abscences continue at 25% of games missed there will need to be another 35-36 England games played before Owen scores his 12 goals not 26-27. Which adds on another year or so which would mean he would break the record around his 31st birthday in 2010.

Id have to think about what the above means but the face of it I dont think 10/3 looks bad considering he probably wont score at the same rate and he could have a career ending injury.

[Kop66]

You're too smart and i'm to pretty to be unemployed Muze

I think it's a reasonable bet and one worth waiting for if it's a big wager. Sam Alardice could have a fair say in things and what about competition for places, i think Rooney is the more likely to start ahead of Owen in alot of games, Crouch, Heskey, Defoe and Bent could be used too, i dont think he'll break it.

[Seen]

Thanks guys, some good advice there.

It's a question of value - if he's 50-50 to beat the record then 10/3 is a cracking price (if you're prepared to wait).

One thing which stood out for me is that he'd have to beat the record number of England caps for an outfield player (I think it's held by Bobby Moore at 108 or something) which, considering his injury problems, has to be doubtful.

Also, 3 of the remaining 4 qualifying games are against Russia twice (conceded 1 goal in 8 games) and Croatia, who should be a tough test. Then IF England qualify, the finals are going to tight as well.

He's also well into his horse racing and I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire from International duty if he gets another serious injury and concentrate on his racing syndicates etc.

[all_funkt_up]

Interesting bet because there are many different permutations.

If England draw San Marino for example in the World Cup Qualifying campaign, Owen could be looking to get 6 in 2 games. Didnt Germany put 13 past them not so long ago?

One factor that will go in Owen's favour, is the lack of a long term replacement. If we had someone to replace him with, we might tire of his injuries and force him in to retirement. But there doesnt seem anyone able to fill his boots, in the medium to long term. Successive managers have shunned Defoe and then I cant really think of an English striker who would give Owen a run for his money.

The Jersey is his for as long as he wants it/is able to wear it.

[Seen]

Originally Posted by all_funkt_up

One factor that will go in Owen's favour, is the lack of a long term replacement. If we had someone to replace him with, we might tire of his injuries and force him in to retirement. But there doesnt seem anyone able to fill his boots, in the medium to long term. Successive managers have shunned Defoe and then I cant really think of an English striker who would give Owen a run for his money.

The Jersey is his for as long as he wants it/is able to wear it.

Yes, this is the main worry I think, AFU - not only is there a fair chance Rooney could become highly injury-prone, but you can't see the likes of Defoe, Smith, Crouch being ahead of Owen in the pecking order.

[all_funkt_up]

I know he might be injury prone, but unless someone like Derbyshire proves to be a world beater, I cant see anyone forcing him out of the team. The prospects we do have on the fringes of the International set up (Walcott, Young, Agbonlahor) would be troubling Mr Rooney for his place in the team rather than Owen.

[slick]

Seems a fair bet to me, especially in the current climate where we have no decent strikers with hardly any coming through either.

If he can keep himself fit then there's another 4 or 5 yrs in him yet and he is beginning to look lively again.
He'll always score goals and a fully fit Michael Owen should reach that target within a couple of yrs, probably even quicker if we manage to qualify for the Euro's as we'll have a shed load of friendlies in the warm ups.

Friendly goals do count don't they? as i'm sure it only has to be a full international friendly or not.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by slick

Seems a fair bet to me, especially in the current climate where we have no decent strikers with hardly any coming through either.

I think Seen's friend's bet was for Owen *NOT* to beat the record, Slick.

[slick]

, soz i better get my reading specs on, this bit threw me..

how likely (and therefore is 10/3 value) is it that he'll reach 50 goals?

If thats the case then i wouldent take it personally unless i knew a Mafia don was also on the bet.

[Winrew]

Two goals so far for Owen tonight

[mrmuzeman]

Presuming his abscences continue at 25% of games missed there will need to be another 35-36 England games played before Owen scores his 12 goals not 26-27.

Make that 30 games more now after tonight.