The Race for 4th Place

[all_funkt_up]

We're entering the business end of the season at the moment, the time when managers that have rotated their squads and rested players throughout the year usually accelerate away from the rest and come into their own. The race for 4th place in the Premiership, according to the media, is well and truly on.

They know Liverpool will get there in the end, but they still talk up the chances of Villa, Everton and until recently Pompey and City too. I suppose they have to fashion a bit of a story where there isnt one, hype up one group of supporters and get them all excited only to drop them from a height when they fail to achieve the promised land.

Lets have a look at the runners and riders then for the 4th place spot:

4	Everton	27	20	50
5	Liverpool	26	24	47
6	Aston Villa	27	15	47
7	Portsmouth	27	11	44
8	Man City	27	3	44

I have included right the way down to 8th place though I dont think either Pompey or Citeh can close the gap. The consistancy, form and goal difference isnt there to the extent they need in my opinion.

So if we assume that the only serious contenders are Everton, Villa and the 5 times European Champions; Liverpool - lets have a looky looky at their next fixtures and also the guesstimate of how many points they will get from each.

Everton

Pompey (h) - 3
Sunderland (a) - 1
Fulham (a) - 1
West Ham (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 0

Villa

Arsenal (a) - 0
Boro (h) - 3
Pompey (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
United (a) - 0

Liverpool

Bolton (a) - 3
Wesh Ham (h) - 3
Toon (h) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
United (a) - 0
Everton (h) - 3

Liverpool have 4 home games out of the next 6 and have some teams that of late have capitulated of late - Reading, Newcastle and Bolton spring to mind. There's a crucial tie with Everton at home that Sky will no doubt build up as the match that decides the 4th place spot - but I think it will be pretty much all over by then in anycase.

By the end of March, this is how I have predicted the table will look, with everyone having played an equal number of games:

4 - Liverpool - 62 points
5 - Everton - 58 points
6 - Villa - 54 points

Home and hosed.

[mrmuzeman]

Oh I how I love your unbiased analysis AFU

Why do Liverpool win their away game at Bolton yet Everton win neither of their aways at Sunderland OR Fulham? Makes no sense at all and hence distorts your points totals. Everton may well go on and not win either but going with logic youd expect us to win 1 of them. Either one just as likely as Liverpool winning at Bolton anyway for sure.

Good thread though and I will now cast my unbiased and totally reasonable predicting eye over precedings to form an entirely more fair reflection on matters.


Everton

Pompey (h) - 3
Sunderland (a) - 1
Fulham (a) - 3
West Ham (h) - 3
Liverpool (a) - 0/1

Villa

Arsenal (a) - 0
Boro (h) - 3
Pompey (a) - 1
Sunderland (h) - 3
United (a) - 0

Liverpool

Bolton (a) - 1/3
Wesh Ham (h) - 3
Toon (h) - 3
Reading (h) - 3
United (a) - 0
Everton (h) - 1/3

---------------

Everton - 60/61pts
Liverpool - 60pts
Villa - 54pts

In Liverpools 2 games where I have predicted a win or draw scenario, I have assumed they will win 1, draw 1, which is perfectly fair.


As is evident, the merseyside derby is a massive game. Even in AFUs results, Everton would be just 1pt shy going into that game, clearly a very key game.

Home and hosed my sweet arse (ooh er)

[mrmuzeman]

As for my prediction of the eventual 4th place, I would just about side with Liverpool still. Ive looked at the outcomes comprehensively and I think itll run to the last game of the season but we will get pipped on GD or by a single point

Villa also will close the gap from the table above as they have a pretty tasty run in of games, especially at home. I think they will be just 2 or 3pts shy come the end.

[all_funkt_up]

Its good to see an unbiased anlysis from you Muze, even if it is wrong. The 'home and hosed' comment was somewhat tongue in cheek, but I do think we'll do it.

I think we face easier teams frankly. Sunderland are dogged at home and have been all season and will be tough test for you. We on the other hand face Bolton who recently got whacked 4-1 by an out of sorts Blackburn. I think we have more win-able games mate and by the end of March we will see the gap opening.

Also, I think we have greater strength in depth too and a massively "in-form" Fernando Torres and I think thats 4th place safe for us.

Not so confident about next year though, I think if Spurs have another summer of big spending, they could be serious contenders next time around mate. Lets face it, the reason they werent in contention this year was because the board undermined Jol in the summer and then got shut at a terrible time in a terrible way and that knocked them for six.

[mrmuzeman]

Sunderland fair enough. Still dont see why you dont think well beat Fulham though, it is the most likely outcome. Fulham away is easier than Bolton away.

Another key factor which we cant quantify at this point in time is the effect on both teams if they continue progressing in Europe. If Liverpool make the champs lg semis for example I can see them dropping a lot of unexpected points ala 2 seasons ago. The same can be said for Everton this time round though so its horses for courses. Its something to keep an eye on though because it will have an affect if one gets knocked out and only has the Prem to focus on, it could make all the difference.

Not so confident about next year though, I think if Spurs have another summer of big spending, they could be serious contenders next time around mate. Lets face it, the reason they werent in contention this year was because the board undermined Jol in the summer and then got shut at a terrible time in a terrible way and that knocked them for six.

That and a shit defence

But yeah I think if they play to potential and Woodgate can remain mostly fit they will be there or thereabouts for sure. They did come 5th in the 2 seasons before this one afterall.

[traeth]

a neutral point of view
i can see the two sides being within two points of each other before the derby match.
in the derby match anything could happen and it could result in the fourth placed being "won or lost"
i'm looking forward to this match

[Scottieboy08]

Jeez, are you sure we've (Pompey) been mentioned for 4th AFU? I find that quite astounding. I'm at Goodison on Sunday and yeah I can't really us winning up there, might nick a point though.

As for 4th, Liverpool, but they have to improve and get the best out of all the squad domestically.

[slick]

From what i've seen since Chrimbo it has to be Everton for me, there are the most consistant side out of that pack and proving very hard to score against. Johnson coming back at a nice easy pace should see them through to the end of the season quite nicely IMO should anything happen to Yakubu.

Liverpool should be giving them a run for their money but the longer they stay in the Champs league the more unpredictable they become in the Premiership due to Rafa's selection policy in wanting to save the best for the Champs League.

Even so Everton look a solid outfit at the moment with every player giving there all for the cause.

I can see a similar situation happening again should Liverpool win the Champs League in that Everton will finish 4th and am i right in thinking that this time only the 4th spot will go through to next yrs champs league?

[mrmuzeman]

I can see a similar situation happening again should Liverpool win the Champs League in that Everton will finish 4th and am i right in thinking that this time only the 4th spot will go through to next yrs champs league?

Its actually the opposite. If Liverpool win Champions league and another team (say Everton) finishes 4th, then Liverpool would get into the Champs Lg and 4th will become a Uefa cup spot. It better not fucking happen!

[mrmuzeman]

Rule 1.3 states: At the request of the national association concerned, the Uefa Champions League title-holders may be entered for this competition ... if they have not qualified via the top domestic league championship.
"If, in such a case, the title-holders come from an association entitled to enter four teams for the Uefa Champions League, the fourth-placed club in the top domestic league championship has to be entered for the Uefa Cup."

[mrmuzeman]

After it happened last time a few years back (when there wasnt such a rule in place) both Liverpool and Everton were allowed in as we know. This rule was made so only 1 would gain entry. Although it is still up the FA which team they would pick, they fully implied back then they would give it to the competition holders. Although i guess the decision could be contested but at the end of the day the FA have to favour 1 over the other. Not an enviable spot for the FA! Shouldnt happen though its probably at least 20/1 it comes to pass.

[Cinny]

would be great to see verton get into the group stages of the champions league be a nice change. I fancy everton the way their playing to win their next 4.

[all_funkt_up]

Cinny, indeed it would. I would love nothing more than to see Everton finish 4th and us win the Champions League.

It would be great to see the bitters denied a Champions League space at our expense

[mrmuzeman]

Everton dropped two points in their bid for a Champions League place as West Ham earned a well-deserved draw.

Yakubu's powerful finish gave Everton the lead after eight minutes and he had a goal wrongly ruled out for offside seven minutes later.

Yeah really deserved when barring a linesman fuck up we would have been 2-0 up after 15min and would have almost certainly won. I see what theyre saying as after that West Ham put in a good performance but that never would have happened if that linesman mistake hadnt unfairly changed the game, they woulda been dead and buried. A real shame I thought cos if Liverpool lose at Man Utd tomorrow a win would have seen both teams on level points going into the derby which would have been great fun.

Anyway, one things for sure we have to win at Anfield next weekend to stand a chance of 4th. And to be fair if you cant beat your rival you probably dont deserve to finish ahead of them when the seasons done.

[mrmuzeman]

Btw Villa have really surprised me, theyve fallen away terribly really, picking up 1 point out of Boro and Sunderland at home is shocking. Im grateful for it though as 5th place and the only Uefa Cup spot is looking good barring a fairly big cock up