Beanie's In Running Golf Bets

[FC Basher]

No I just let it ride mate, only had a small bet anyway when I saw you teling us to back Rose I thought you must of had a heavy saturday night
Beanie, I think Rose has been In place a few times On the US tour and never finished the job off,he has had plenty of top tens and a couple of 2nd and 3rd places the last couple of seasons,slightly away from in running betting,it might pay to buy his finishing position in some tourneys next season.

[Beanie]

Yeah, I'd agree with that, although Immelman isn't much better. I think Trevor's bogey-bogey-bogey finish, only to be trumped by Justin's double at the last, is the conclusion a battle between those two deserved to be honest

[Beanie]

Risk 3.22pts Lay Adam Scott @ 3.15 to win 1.5pts
3pts Peter Lonard @ 5.20
1pt Cameron Percy @ 60
0.50pts Michael Brennan @ 300

[Beanie]

For the final round, add in:

0.50pts Adam Bland @ 17.50

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Risk 3.22pts Lay Adam Scott @ 3.15 to win 1.5pts
3pts Peter Lonard @ 5.20
1pt Cameron Percy @ 60
0.50pts Michael Brennan @ 300

Good old Pete Lonard, steady as a rock as Sabbatini blows up on the final stretch, winning it pretty easily in the end. Scott chucked in his wobbler in round 3 as hoped, so some good profits on this one.

[Beanie]

Quick stats update(especially as it looks rather rosy at the moment):

Staked: 24.23pts
Returned: 56.626pts
Yield: 133%

[Beanie]

SAA Open

4pts Ernie Els @ 5.60
2.8pts James Kingston @ 8.4
2.5pts Andrew McLardy @ 9.4
1.7pts Richard Sterne @ 14
1.3pts Oliver Wilson @ 18

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

SAA Open

4pts Ernie Els @ 5.60
2.8pts James Kingston @ 8.4
2.5pts Andrew McLardy @ 9.4
1.7pts Richard Sterne @ 14
1.3pts Oliver Wilson @ 18

Another safe winner - Kingston and Wilson 1st and 2nd and safely clear for most of the final day.

Staked: 36.53pts
Returned: 79.12pts
Yield: 117%

[trickrick]

Nice one dude...Didnt even know this was hidden here...

And here's me thinking you were just a reality market whore nowadays...

[Beanie]

Well almost, I've even given up the SPL for the time being after a dodgy half season so far.

I don't know tooooooo much about golf - but I sat down with a couple of websites full of stats earlier this year, as I knew that somewhere, somewhere in all those numbers there had to be some kind of indicator as to who was gonna surge up the leaderboard, as I was tired of punting on it as nothing more than a lottery.

So I decided to look at the winners scores a bit more, a pattern was hidden in there, with more often than not their 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds involving a run of birdies after a bogey.

The mentality point is an obvious one if you've ever watched a run in in a major tournament - its one of the most mentally tough games in the world, and shouldn't be, given that you get time to set yourself up, do what youve done thousands of times before, with no other 'team' upsetting you or working against you.

So add them both together, the bouncebackability for the 3rd round based on round 1 and 2 scores, add in the mentality factor for round 4, and I think there is a very very real edge there.

[Beanie]

No time for reasoning - in a big rush:

Merc Benz Champs:

2pts Mike Weir @ 5.40
0.5pts Calcevecchia @ 27.00
0.5pts Stricker @ 21.00
0.25pts Campbell @ 85.00

Missed the 1000 on Fred Funk by about 0.5secs (and no liquidity on him now) so fingers crossed he doesn't fire today!

[Beanie]

Not far off another big winner as Stricker is beaten at the 4th playoff hole

[Beanie]

Ok, bit of a problem this week given that I'm about to go out, the liquidity isn't great on Betfair, and they don't cancel unmatched bets before play starts again, so I'm going to have to cut a few would be selections on the basis of poor liquidity in the Joburg Open

Wide open field so i'll use the criteria to get a variety of runners onside:

2pts Carlsson @ 18.50
2pts Backstrom @ 20
1pt Fereirra @ 38
1pt Boyd @ 44
1pt Cruse @ 55
0.5pts Struver @ 55
0.5pts Williams @ 130
0.5pts Praegant @ 320

Woulda beens if market had liquidity
Haindl
Walters
Mulroy

[Beanie]

Adding 1.5pts Larrazabal @ 15.00
2pts Mulroy @ 18.00

[Beanie]

Mulroy throws it away, and then he and Carlsson lose at the 2nd extra hole in a playoff. I did back the winner and Darren Clarke as both were improving based on the criteria, but it doesn't help the system stats(even though it proves its still picking em well - 12 point loss rather than 36 point return.