Beanie's In Running Golf Bets

[Beanie]

Boo won.

Gonna open up my trading for the BMW Asian open with a few punts - the presence of some of the bigger names in players like Goosen and Stenson means some pretty meaty prices on the names at the top of the leaderboard.

The reputation/class of players like those isnt in question - but their form in China/energy after the Masters and other US tournies might be. Those that need these wins so much more will be far hungrier for this, and so I dont particularly see any value in those players, but plenty elsewhere.

This tourney does look a tricky one to read tho, so just small stakes for now...

2pt Darren Clarke @ 8.00
1.6pts RJ Derksen @ 9.80
0.8pts Tunnicliff @ 20
0.4pts Wen-Tang Lin @ 50
0.2pts Illonen @ 95
0.2pts Mu @ 140

Darren is back after a short rest and looking fresh and good, a lot more like his old self. If he is back to his best then the 8s are huge. RJ is top of the leaderboard and playing well - he can handle these situations and for a 2nd round leader looks a little big.

Tunnicliff is a very consistent, steady player, and so if the conditions are tricky again he should stay well in contention. Same goes for Wen-Tang.

Illonen, on the other hand, is exceptionally streaky(was in contention after R1 before going +5 for his first 4 holes in R2.) He could easily do that again and play himself out of it, but likewise from off the pace he's still a live contender. Mu is an amatuer, hence the huge price despite only being 3 off the lead - so I'm prepared to take a chance on the unknown local.

[Snodser]

Boom Boom Boom ?

So now you're a Mazda?

[Beanie]

Disclaimer* Just cos I like the genius of the boom boom boom doesn't mean I like the rest or think it will even qualify

Much the same as Dustin really...

[Snodser]

Absolutely no idea who that "clip" was........ but don't you worry Rick


"I'm never gonna give you up , never gonna let you down............................................."

Sweet dreams

[Beanie]

Nice day - Clarke 1st, RJ 2nd, Wen-Tang 4th and Mu 5th.

------------------------------------------

Onto the PGA:

I'm not overly confident on how this one is going to pan out yet, but as usual when Adam Scott flies out the traps as he has done here, there are some big prices to be had elsewhere.

Opinion on how good Scott is as a 'closer' is pretty divided, but at only 5/2 with the field bunched up behind him I couldn't back him, especially given how he has blown up in the past.

So just a couple of bigger prices that I think could shoot low today...

1pt Hoffman @ 17.00
0.5pts Na @ 34
0.25pts Lickliter @ 55

All are playing well and still in the mix. Both Na and Hoffman have shown sparkling form in fits and starts in recent weeks, and if they can just kick on from here then they have the ability to win.

Whether they have the mentality to do so is another matter entirely. Lickliter just looks a little overpriced given that he is only 3 back and tore up the course yesterday.

[Beanie]

The Hoff is still in with a sniff - into around 13s, only problem is Adam Scott has scooted clear and dominates the market but he's not always the most reliable out front.

Will post up any further punts tomorrow on that one.

No further punts on the BMW - happy with the strong position on Lin, Derksen and Clarke - should be one of the last two of those that win, and if its Dinwiddie, then so be it, but I cant see it.

(From a non financial point of view - come on DC!)

[FC Basher]

Im fed up of saying well done to you all the time Beanie

But you nailed Darren Clarke

I thought he would never come back again.

[Snodser]

Good stuff Beanie .

Great news for DC too. I was on the future DC & he still has a way to go. My big 7 bet on the PGA covers me though .

[Beanie]

Hmmmm...looks like a tough one to read in Spain.

Garrido is a hopeless leader as he showed by sweating up in front today, only shooting level par which around this course is pretty miserable. If he can't hack it in round 3 then in the final group with Jimenez tomorrow I think he'll struggle even more.

His stellar 2nd round will give him every chance regardless of what he shoots tomorrow but I cant see him closing it out.

The problem then is who catches him. There quite a few bunched up behind but none are sticking out as likely to fire the necessary score to take this by the scruff of the neck. Jimenez looks good but is plenty short enough at just under 3/1.

If Garrido isn't going to go out and shoot a solid round then -16 could win this, and given that -8/-9 is possible round here then that potentially brings those on -8 and even -7 into outside contention.

Of those the pick would be Nystrom and Jonzon - huge huge outsiders though.

Into the main pack and Lawrie looks a little overpriced for a guy that is able to shoot low and hold it together.

Up top its a toss up between laying Garrido and taking Jimenez, but at better odds i'll do the latter, maybe just a little value in the near 3/1. He is in the last group with Garrido and given the way he has played the opening 9 this week will heap on the pressure early on. After that its a case of avoiding anyone shooting the lights out from the chasing pack.

3pts Jimenez @ 3.70
0.5pts Lawrie @ 36
0.1pts Nystrom @ 330
0.1pts Jonzon @ 650

[Beanie]

Lawrie wins

Onto the PGA, where I thought Kim played with great maturity yesterday, and with a 4 shot advantage I think he looks a cracking price to close this one out.

Just a small punt tho.

3pts Kim @ 1.71

[Beanie]

Kim wins...little stats update too...

Staked: 175.58pts
Returned: 194.29pts
Yield: 10%

That brutal run in the middle has calmed the yield down a little, but hopefully its back in business.

[Snodser]

Originally Posted by Beanie

That brutal run in the middle has calmed the yield down a little, but hopefully its back in business.

Beans,

Its getting into the "meat" of the season . Not a time to be breaking down . The rugby is almost done so we have to find a way to get food on the table, & not just beans

[Beanie]

Sure thing snods - still plenty tweaks and amendments I think can be made to improve this further.

I need to do some analysis on the bets so far - I'm pretty sure the Euro Tour is a much better fit for the system than the US, as the US events tend to play out slightly differently...the bouncebackability factor doesnt seem quite so prominent, and as a result I'm not employing it so much in the US anymore. Picks for the last few weeks have ignored it completely really.

Euro Tour tho was what it was based on initially and still looks easily the most predictable...but as I say I'll need to take a few hours to look at that in more detail.

[Snodser]

You take your time my good man .

It's a dammned hard station at the best of times so you do what you have to. Its pretty hard over in the rugby & there's only 2 teams, never mind 100+ odd.

I'll post my bets but excuse me if I take advantage of your thoughts, Bets of luck

[Beanie]

The Italian Open looks a little trappy and I'll just stick a tentative toe in the water here. Karlsson shot the lights out today but its always a big ask to do so again after a round like that.

With the pack bunched up at 3-5 shots back, just over even money looks plenty too short - on a standard course fair enough, but around here where -6 is the norm with every hole a good birdie chance then that lead can evaporate in no time.

There's quite a few live contenders who look well placed for a big round tomorrow, and Karlsson dominating the market means the prices look decent...

2pts Otto @ 11
2pts Hansen @ 11
1.5pts Foster @ 13
0.6pts Fraser @ 50
0.6pts Archer @ 40
0.4pts Dredge @ 24

A look at the Players Champs in the morning.