Beanie's In Running Golf Bets

[Beanie]

On the basis of the last few months I have a pseudo-system, which is technically based on a few selection criteria but those criteria are largely based on personal opinion, which seems to work pretty well so I figure its time to start recording them in here(and since they involve a certain amount of laying and backing they are a bit messy to record in the golf threads(although I'll stick the main bets in there anyway.)

When I say in running i'll just stick to pre-round bets as in round bets aren't verifiable.

Selections are based on two things:

a) how well players 'respond' to poor holes - I noticed that a lot of those that came into contention in the closing rounds of tournaments are those that have been following up bogies or worse with birdies or better on the holes immediately after the setback. The mental side of golf is very important and it seems that this factor serves as a good indicator for who is in the zone in that particular week.

For example, a player can be leading after a low round, but if they rattled off six birdies early on but failed to make any further after their first bogey, then often when further bogies come in later rounds, which they will do, those players often struggle to stabilise their rounds, and when under pressure can begin to sink down the leaderboard without a trace. The converse seems to be true as well, or atleast I hope to prove it is.

b) a player's 'winning potential' - likewise, getting over the finishing line can be a tricky thing in golf, particularly for those that haven't won before, for those that are playing alongside experienced players in the final group, or for those that know a strong pack is chasing them, even if a) is true.

So based on a combination of those things, I'll attempt to judge a player's 'winning potential', add it in to a) and come up with some value punts.

What often seems to happen is that despite great form, great course record etc etc, a players mindset can vary wildly from week to week, and this can make pre tournament betting a bit of a struggle, and so I've found 2 rounds minimum are needed on which to base these decisions, and so bets will only be made prior to rounds 3 and 4.

[trickrick]

Nice one mate - look forward to seeing how this pans out...

Back in the country now Beanie?

[Beanie]

Neeeeeeeeeeeearly trickster - I'm in LA at the moment(which means I can't bet on Betfair ) but flying back to London and then onto Edinburgh tomorrow (just in time for Saturday's X Factor!)

Will run a separate bank of this on the womens events, which I haven't tested or bet on yet, but there is no reason why it can't work there also so will give that one a paper trial.

Will hopefully have some punts tomorrow after the 2nd round of the Champions Trophy.

[Beanie]

Start off with a small one...reasoning in the Golf thread...

2pts Mickelson @ 1.44 with Betfair(HSBC Champs)

[Beanie]

One I've been swithering over all night - I'll stick with it on 2 counts:

1pt Adam Scott @ 2.60 with Betfair(Taiheiyo Masters)

Firstly, he's the class act in the field, and his very presence will put the others under huge pressure, not least the man he'll pair in the final group tomorrow, Brendan Jones. He's won on the tour before but not up against a player of Scott's class down the stretch.

Secondly, Scott is playing the front 9 a couple of shots better than Jones this week - if he replicates that and eats up Jones' two shot advantage early on, then Jones' better performance on the back 9 up to this point will be under huge scrutiny. If he holds up then fair play to him.

In behind, Toru Tanaguchi was clear and blew his position with a 2 over round today - if that's anything to go by he could well struggle to maintain his round even if he starts well. Behind that, the field looks a little too far back to mount a serious challenge.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

2pts Mickelson @ 1.44 with Betfair(HSBC Champs)

1pt Adam Scott @ 2.60 with Betfair(Taiheiyo Masters)

What an idiot Mickelson is, streaks 5 clear before some braindead, nervy golf on the closing holes throws it away, only to come back and win the playoff. He's no Tiger!

Scott's challenge didn't materialise - not sure about the Asian Tour events as the players who usually play on the PGA don't seem to value them as much and so motivation/focus could be a concern.

Creamer is 6 clear in the LPGA - she is a bit of a bottler but it would have to be some bottle job to throw that one away.

[Beanie]

Mastercard Masters:

5pts Aaron Baddeley @ 3.00 with Betfair
0.50pts Rodney Pampling @ 13.50 with Betfair

Chopra leads Baddeley by 1, but I fancy the Aussie for this. He has a cracking record in tournaments held in Australia, and has looked fairly solid all week. Chopra won on the PGA tour recently, and is undoubtedly in good form, but I don't think he has played as consistently as Baddeley this week, and down the stretch I'd fancy the Aussie to hold his game together in front of a home crowd. I'll have a little saver on another Aussie in Pampling in behind - he does have low rounds in him and has looked mentally strong this week.

[Beanie]

World Cup:

4pts England @ 4.90
2.5pts Scotland @ 8.20
0.5pts Argentina @ 22.00

First off, leaders the USA don't inspire me with much confidence - they've done well to lead for all 3 days so far, but I think it's taking its toll as these aren't two regular winners(Slocum and Weekley) and its a mental struggle when atop of a leaderboard. Think they were looking slightly jaded yesterday. Also, it's back to the foursomes which requires greater consistency from both players, and so I'm inclined to look to the more consistent teams.

England first off have the best side of any, with Rose and Poulter both having recent wins and in great form. They'll relish chasing down the Americans and being just one shot back I have to fancy their chances, especially at a price where they finally look backable.

Scotland too should prosper...Monty isnt in great form, but these are the events he relishes, and he and Warren finished second last year, so again, they know each others game and can be relied on to finish well.

As its foursomes, it's not so easy for teams to come from too far off the pace, but if any team in the pack will do it it's likely to be Argentina, who with Romero in the team could easily shoot a very low round(just as easily as they could shoot a very high one.) Worth a small bet.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Mastercard Masters:

5pts Aaron Baddeley @ 3.00 with Betfair
0.50pts Rodney Pampling @ 13.50 with Betfair

Better - this one was an interesting one and might need something to be added to the criteria - which involves a particular type of player playing infront of his home crowd. Baddeley isn't the most reliable when on the PGA Tour, but his record in Australia is very very solid, and in the playoff v Chopra he looked superb, and was much the better player. There's a few other similar players to look out for, as well as the opposite where big name players playing on smaller tour events(ie Japanese tour events) lack the motivaion to sustain a final round push.

Originally Posted by Beanie

World Cup:

4pts England @ 4.90
2.5pts Scotland @ 8.20
0.5pts Argentina @ 22.00

Surprising to see an England challenge not materialise, and the Americans were stronger than expected, but Monty and Warren(who was the star of the show) really seem to bring out the best in each other. Go on lads!

[FC Basher]

Good luck with your system mate,I for one will be following.

[Beanie]

3pts Trevor Immelman @ 2.40 with Betfair

In the Nedbank.

[FC Basher]

Got on Immelman @2.36 with betfair

[Beanie]

Hmmm decisions - not gone exactly to plan.

Gonna stick with it:

5pts Rose @ 1.76 with Betfair

Only really gives a small 1pt bet at evens on Rose(and a big red beside ernie )

[FC Basher]

Thanks for another winner Beanie

[Beanie]

You not switch onto Rose Bash? Good man - glad someone made some cash out of it.

5pts Rose @ 1.76 with Betfair
3pts Trevor Immelman @ 2.40 with Betfair

No complaints from me as I really didn't read that one too well, Rose starting the stronger and finishing the weaker, so I'll count myself lucky to walk away with a loss of just under 1pt.