A return to Spread Betting

[Colbro]

Its been a long time since I last had a spread bet. Around 7-8 years in fact. At the time I set aside an amount I was prepared to lose and hit that amount before a long term bet came in which meant I ended up in profit.
It scared me enough to put me off for a while but for some reason for the last day or two I have felt the urge to try again so I would like to track my progress here in the hope I will keep my discipline.
If all goes wrong tonight it could be a short thread.

Two for tonight
Buy Wigan tries @ 5.4 against Hull
An end of season game with nothing at stake as Hull will finish second and Wigan are safe but Wigan need a performance and hopefully it will be high scoring.
Sell total goals Hull v Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.1
Price is tight but with both sides out of form hopefully they will both settle for a point and take few chances.

[ONEDUNME]

FUCKIN HELL.Just turned the TV on and it's 1-1 after about 12 minutes in the Hull Sheff wed game.

Squeeky bum time for a bit.

[ONEDUNME]

2-1 18 MINUTES

[Colbro]

The joys of spread betting eh?

I have forgotten to put down the stakes and Bookie as well I have just noticed.
It was 50 pts on the goals and 100 pts on the tries and at half time it is 3 goals and four tries. May try and close out a bit in the early part of the second half - not sure yet.

[Colbro]

Wigan score an early try in the second half to make it 5 so far so I have closed it by selling at 7.6. I have also bought the total goals in the hull game at 4 for a loss there.

[Hippy Dave]

I've said it time and time again (although I stole it from someone else originally), the biggest mistake spread bettors make is to cut their winnings and chase their losses. In reality you should be cutting your losses and chasing your winnings.

You have to have an exit strategy when you place the bet. And that strategy is to keep the bet running until something goes against you.

For example.

Sell goals @ 2.1
When I place this bet I might decide that I will close the bet if there is a goal within the first 25 minutes. Or I might decide to close the bet as soon as a goal is scored, whenever the goal is. Of course, you might end up worse off than letting the bet run, but you aren't going to win much, whereas you could lose a lot if it ends up 4-3.

Buy trys @ 5.4
I might decide that I would close the bet if there were less than 3 trys by HT. In this situation, 4 by HT, and you're likely to make a decent profit anyway - why sell and lose a lot of potential profit when the downside is so small.

[Colbro]

Final make ups were Total Wigan tries 7 and Total goals 3.

I've said it time and time again (although I stole it from someone else originally), the biggest mistake spread bettors make is to cut their winnings and chase their losses. In reality you should be cutting your losses and chasing your winnings.

In summing up I was actually going to say I probably made a basic error in closing the goals bet too early. If that had been my only bet of the night I would maybe have let it run. I was not watching the game (another mistake) but watching the rugby and decided that if Wigan were to score an early try in the second half (To make it 5) I would close at anything better than 7.5. There was always a danger they would ease up after another score and even if they didn't 8 was the max I could expect so why not trade at around the max price I expected.

The goals bet was closed because the bits I saw showed the game to be very open and not as I expected. I also closed to guarantee a profit on the night.

I do agree with your points though Dave - I did not have time to explain my thinking at half time though (and I hope it is OK now and not seen as after eventing).

Anyway a profit on the night of 125 points.

[Colbro]

Sorry - Just to add the goals in the Hull v Sheff Weds game all came within the first 18 mins. This is unusual and another sometimes when this happens it is easy to panic and trade too soon. I was waiting for a period without a goal to trade at a smaller loss but when the goals come that quick it became impossible. It happens that way sometimes and I have to take it on the chin.

After 50 mins the price had dropped to 4 so I decided to cut the losses then - a mistake in hindsight but the decision I decided to take at the time and was happy with.

[ONEDUNME]

I think that's the best you can hope for. If, in the thick of the action, you decide that you're happy with the price and the amount then you need to take it.


It's no good relying on hindsight for inspiration.

[Hippy Dave]

Good start Colbro.

Just to be clear, I wasn't actually criticising what you were doing, I just like to get my preaching head on whenever Spread Betting is mentioned

[Colbro]

Just to be clear, I wasn't actually criticising what you were doing, I just like to get my preaching head on whenever Spread Betting is mentioned

Fair enough - be good to have a deabte about spread betting.
Onwards anyway and sell corners in Charlton v Portsmouth for 50 pts @ 10.7 on spreadfair.

[Colbro]

Corners made up @ 13 so a 115 point loss.

Bet 4 is a buy for 100 points of Aston Villa supremacy @0.12 on spreadfair which has been matched.
I am not a great fan of these supremacy bets as usually the downside heavilly outweighs the upside but on this occasion the price seems ok. Villa outplayed West Ham last week and should have scored several more goals than they did. Hopefully they will convert more this week.

[Colbro]

Forgot all about this
Total bank now -2 points

Buy Bookings @37 in the Man City v Watford game at 3 points.
Neither team is particually dirty averaging around 1.5 points each but referee Mark Clattenburg has a season average of 4.5 cards per game and seems to be the sort to try to make up around the 5 mark whatever type of game it is.
There is often a couple of softish bookings when he is around so hopefully that will continue tonight.

[Colbro]

Buy Ian Bells' runs in the second innings of the second test @58 for 1 point.

England have no chance of winning now and need to bat out the day. The pitch is still not doing much but obviously Warne remains a danger.
40 point downside but if he can bat a long time hopefully plenty of upside potential.

[Colbro]

Bookings made up at 40 and Ian Bell was out for 26 so a loss of 23 points so bank is -25 points

Today there are three
buy bookings at 32.8 for Spurs v Boro on Spreadfair 3 points
sell bookings at 39 for Charlton v Blackburn Spreadfair 3 points
sell total goals at 2.2 for Charlton v Blackburn Spreadfair 3 points.

The referee for Spurs Boro is Mike Hallesy who averages 2.88 cards per game. Boro average three in every away game so if these hold up and throw in a Spurs booking there could be value in the price.
The referee for Chartlon v Blackburn is Chris Foy who has issued the least cards in the premiership so far. Interesting his avarage is boosted by games involving Boro which influenced the above bet. Blackburn are a worry as they average over two cards per game away from home but with spread betting the value is normally with the selling and I think the quote is too high.