Rickj's U.S Sports Plays

[rickj]

Monday we were -1.05 units. 1 play and it lost. Minnesota really never got close to covering.

Today 2 plays in the nba...

Seattle +3 -105
Wash/Pho under 231.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 56-49-1 +4.62
o/u 19-11 +7.68

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 41 bets + 5.27 units +12.85% Return
Total 369 Bets + 44.08 units +11.94% Return

[rickj]

Tues we were 0-2 for a -2.10 unit day. we lost the total by a half point..and seattle by 2.

This is clearly the biggest drawdown since I started this method. If you are exercising good
money management you should be fine. If not....this should be a lesson. No matter what methodology you are going to have drawdowns. We are only at 7 to 8 unit drawdown now...and I suspect somewhere along the line we will get at least a 15 unit drawdown...whether this is it only time will tell.

Also.....the only other concern I have is the nba sides. We are only +3.57 units on 112 plays....that is only an 3.19 percent return...I would suggest lowering your unit bet until we get back over a 5 to 7 percent return in the nba sides...also I am going to tighten a bit my parameters on nba sides.

So...today....looks like only 1 clear play in the nba this morning...

Golden state under 205.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 56-50-1 +3.57
o/u 19-12 +6.63

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 43 bets + 3.17 units +7.37% Return
Total 371 Bets + 41.98 units +11.29% Return

[rickj]

Wedn we lost -105 units on the under on golden state. We were never in jeopardy of winning this bet.

Our high point so far has been +51.63 units and that was on jan 16th. So in 9 days we are on a 10.7 unit downswing. This is called variance or perhaps reversion to the mean The only question is where is the mean on this method..only time will tell.

Again good money management will keep you in the game....if you dont have it you really dont have a chance.

1 play in the nba today.....

Chicago +5.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 56-50-1 +3.57
o/u 19-13 +5.58

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 44 bets + 2.12 units +4.82% Return
Total 372 Bets + 40.93 units +11.00% Return

[rickj]

Thurs we were +1.0 units with a win on chicago in the nba.

Today nothing i can see in the nhl but 3 plays in the nba.

Good Luck

Phil +5 -105
Milw +10.5 -105
Detroit/washington under 204.5 -105

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:
mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 57-50-1 +4.57
o/u 19-13 +5.58

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 45 bets + 3.12 units +6.93% Return
Total 373 Bets + 41.93 units +11.24% Return

[rickj]

Friday we were +.95 units. We split on the sides.... milw hung in there and covered but phil couldnt despite the line dropping to phil even. Detroit under though was an easy winner.

When you get a big line move as in phil its best to lay off the game. The nba lines are pretty tight this time of the season...so usually cant fade more then .5 to 1 pt off these plays.

Today nothing in the nhl I can see...but 4 plays in the nba.

Lines as of 6.57 am pst

phil +4.5 -105
no +5 -105
Denver under 210 -105
Golden st under 211.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 58-51-1 +4.52
o/u 20-13 +6.58

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 48 bets + 4.07 units +8.48% Return
Total 376 Bets + 42.88 units +11.40% Return

[rickj]

There were no plays yesterday...the day before we went 2-2 for -.10 units.

Today 1 play in the nba.....

denver under 214.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 60-51-1 +6.52
o/u 20-15 +4.48

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 52 bets + 3.97 units +7.63% Return
Total 380 Bets + 42.78 units +11.26% Return

[rickj]

Monday we lost our total on the denver game by 2pts. So -1.05 units.

Today 1 play in the nba.....

Boston +9 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 60-51-1 +6.52
o/u 20-16 +3.43

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 53 bets + 2.95 units +5.53% Return
Total 381 Bets + 41.73 units +10.95% Return

[rickj]

Thats what happens when i dont have my coffee in the morning..denver under was a winner

updated stats

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 60-51-1 +6.52
o/u 21-15 +5.48

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 53 bets + 4.97 units +8.48% Return
Total 381 Bets + 43.78 units +11.49% Return

[Mahatma]

Have you run a chitest on your results rickj? 11.49% return over 381 bets is very tidy and enough to see me place some of those bets.

[rickj]

what is a chitest?

[rickj]

Tues we were +1.0 units when boston covered. Its nice to get a break our way with a last min run to cover the spread.

Today 3 plays in the nba

lines as of 7:28 pst

Boston +6 -105
Memphis+7.5 -105
Sacremento +5.5 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 61-51-1 +7.52
o/u 21-15 +5.48

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 54 bets + 5.97 units +11.05% Return
Total 382 Bets + 44.78 units +11.72% Return

[Mahatma]

It's a test to see if your results are statistically significant or not. There is a function in excel that can do it for you if you have the average odds of your bets.

[rickj]

Wedn we were +.95 units. We went 2-1 with bost failing to cover but sacr won outright as a dog and Memphis covered easily.

Jan was an interesting month. We started out on a 10-0 run...but then saw our first real draw down in 380 bets,,,it was an 11 unit drawdown. For those of you that have no money management in place it was probably a very difficult drawdown for you. A good positive expectation along with good money management is very hard to beat. Without both its very difficult to come out on top.

All in all though Jan was a good month...with 57 bets +6.92 units and a 12.14% return.

Today there are 2 plays 1 nba total and a rare nhl play

Good Luck

Phoenix under 208 -105
Edmonton +145

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/


Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-27 +6.31
Nba
Side 63-52-1 +8.47
o/u 21-15 +5.48

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14% Return
Total 385 Bets + 45.73 units +11.87% Return

[rickj]

Friday there were no plays. Thurs we went 1-1 for a 0 unit day.

Today there are 3 plays in the nba all totals and 1 nhl play.

wash under 217.5 -105
charlotte under 213.5 -105
phoenix under 217 -105

nhl
minnesota even

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 28-28 +5.31
Nba
Side 63-52-1 +8.47
o/u 22-15 +6.48

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14% Return
Feb: 2 bets +0.00 units +0.00 Return
Total 387 Bets + 45.73 units +11.82% Return

[rickj]

We had no plays on Sun and we were 3-1 Sat for +1.95 units.

Today 1 play in the nba

Denver +8 -105

Good Luck

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
nfl
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 29-28 +6.31
Nba
Side 63-52-1 +8.47
o/u 24-16 +7.43

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Return
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Return
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Return
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14% Return
Feb: 6 bets +1.95 units +32.66 Return
Total 391 Bets + 47.68units +12.19% Return