Tennis 7-13 May (ATP Rome, WTA Berlin and Prague)

[Wittmann 44]

Some interesting possibilities today


Roddick- Chela

Roddick 6-1 ahead on the H to H (all hard) and playing very well yesterday starts as underdog which makes no sense to me. Chela blows hot and cold and his record against big servers (Hewitt, Ljubicic) is very poor. A good win against Andreev yesterday but the limited Giguel took him to 3 on the first day and he has never gone beyond the 2nd round here in 6 attempts. Big stakes here.

Roddick 5 Units @ 2.08

Massu – Gonzalez

Olympic double winners square off against each other. Lots of history here but Massu has come through qualifiers and he broke down twice in April during games so I think his fitness is suspect. Gonzo has a better record here as well.

Gonzalez 2 Units @ 1.47

Simon-Robredo

This is one for trading but Robredo struggled yesterday against Hernandez and both previous games with Simon have gone to three. Simon dispatched and injured Murray and a disinterested Canas in previous rounds but with Robredo defending his Hamburg title next week he might have one eye on that.

Simon 1 Unit @ 2.6

Bagdatis – Djokovic

Opposed Gasquet yesterday as I felt he would be fatigued and I’m going to try the same today against Djokovic who has a lot of tennis under his belt and who looked tired against Soderling. The Swede had many chances to win in the final set but choked badly.

Baghdatis 1 Unit @ 4
Djokovic 2-1 ½ Unit @ 4.5

In Prague one bet caught my eye with Pin playing Meuseberger. Pin beat heavy favourite Castano yesterday and holds a 5-0 h to h over Meusberger. Meuseberger is definitely the better clay courter as her record shows but the H to H really cataches my eye.

Pin 1 Unit @ 2.6

Another trading possibility is in Germany in the Kuznestsova match where she plays local girl Muller. The Russian finished her match yesterday against Bammer with a leg very heavily bandaged and moving badly. The H to H is 3-0 in favour of Kuznetsova but Muller too a set off her last year here in with a home crowd behind her is worth a nibble at a big price.

Lay Kuznestova @ 1.18 (1 Unit to Win 6.5)

[bulit]

Davydenko 1.9 - Starace 1.73
Davydenko lead 1:0 h2h and he is in great form now. Why the bookies think that Starace is favorit? Starace has a positive score this year but Davydenko is first class of world tennis and he good on clay court.

Davydenko to beat Starace @1.9

[rene]

Roddick lost 0-6 and 4-6

[rcgills]

Seems Nadal may be having some trouble. Translated from Marca:

Rafa Nadal went to a hospital in Rome to be examined after suffering dizziness on Wednesday, although he still says he wants to play tonight against Russian Mijail Youzhny. Despite visiting a doctor on Wednesday morning after feeling unwell, Nadal played and won hours later against Italian Daniele Bracciali, admitting afterwards that he was still slightly dizzy and was going to return to the doctor, who had previously told him he couldn't see anything wrong.

As he still wasn't fully recovered, he decided to go to hospital to undergo various tests to find the causes of his problem. The results of the tests are not yet known, but sources close to the player insist that he wants and intends to play his match tonight against Youzhny

Nadal out from around 1.6 to 2.2 to win the title on Betfair, and Youzhny has been backed down from a high of 16.5 to a current price of just 9.2.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rene

Roddick lost 0-6 and 4-6

Unlucky with that Rene. I didn't touch the game, as I've backed Chela outright for the tournament, but I have to admit I thought Roddick would win this one.

Chela now down to 44, I'll look to lay a bit off on him, probably just enough to cover my stake plus the already lost stakes on Ferrero and Chakvetadze. Going to leave it a little while yet though, as Federer is currently 0-3 down against Volandri (two breaks for Volandri). Still very early days, but if Volandri could knock out Federer, that would surely knock Chela's odds even lower, as he'd be due to meet Federer in the semis

[rcgills]

Federer out , loses 6-2 6-4 to Volandri. Anyone see the game? Was Federer injured or anything, or was he just outplayed?

Chela's odds have indeed come down, have laid off at average odds of 28.54, enough to cover the 4.5pts I had on all the outrights (Chela, Ferrero and Chakvetadze), so I'll break even at worst on the outrights. Will leave it like that for now and have another look at it after tomorrow's QF. Well, I will if Chela's on first. If he's on in the evening, I'll have to see what I do, as I'm off for the weekend

[bulit]

Originally Posted by bulit

rene Schüttler lost today 2:0 so that was some kind of suprice but I still beleive that F. Mayer goes in final this week.
About ATP tournaments this week:
Kuznetsova is in great form and I only see her win tommorow. I bet on Kuznetsova 2:0.


I was watching Ivanovic and she played excellent. She easy won 2:0 and she is in good form but on the other hand Bondarenko is also in good form and she won against few good players last weeks. For me, I think Ivanovic will win but it will be very hard. I will put her with handicap for low stake.
Cibulkova is very interesting for me. She is young but strong player. She likes clay courts and in first match she won 6:2 6:1 I think so I will put her tommorow.
All in all lot's of interesting matches tommorow but from me NO big stake
GL

Cibulkova 2:0
F. Mayer 2:0
Ivanovic 2:0
Kuznetsova 2:0

[rene]

Federer out , loses 6-2 6-4 to Volandri. Anyone see the game? Was Federer injured or anything, or was he just outplayed?

I said it yesterday RC .. the most player play better when they´re on the home court. No traveling and the whole stuff.

[Wittmann 44]

Chela plays Gonzalez next round and based on todays performance will wipe the floor with him. Gonzalez – Massu was like a WTA match. Lots of unforced errors and breaks of serve by both players. Gonzo couldn’t make a backhand to save his life. Massu tired badly in the final set when a break up and threw it away.

Unless Chela suffers a major negative reaction to this win I would expect him to face the winner of Berdych – Volandri in the semis. Against Berdych he will probably be slight underdog, against Volandri a slight favourite. Didn’t see Volandri’s match but apparently Federer wasn’t moving well and gifted the match to him. I saw Volandri beat gasquet in three and he was poor. His serve is weak, he hit lots of wild shots but the Italians will give him the late evening start in an effort to get a full house behind him so I would not rule him out against Berdych.

The main problem for Chela is he is in uncharted territory. He is played 7 lost 7 in Masters quarter finals albeit against arguably better opposition than either Bedrych or Volandri and has never made a semi.

GL anyway .

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by bulit

Cibulkova 2:0
F. Mayer 2:0
Ivanovic 2:0
Kuznetsova 2:0

Nice work, Bulit, although strictly speaking Ivanovic didn't win 2-0, Bondarenko retired when 5-0 down in the 2nd, something I'm absolutely delighted about as it means I got my stake refunded on a bet I'd already written off as a loser - I'd gone for over 20.5 games.

Cheers for that, Wittman, interesting stuff. As I said, the worst I can do now on the outrights is break even, so I'll just wait and see for now. Price is drifting on Chela too, out to 40 now.

And nice call on Pin, by the way

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Federer out , loses 6-2 6-4 to Volandri. Anyone see the game? Was Federer injured or anything, or was he just outplayed?

Chela's odds have indeed come down, have laid off at average odds of 28.54, enough to cover the 4.5pts I had on all the outrights (Chela, Ferrero and Chakvetadze), so I'll break even at worst on the outrights. Will leave it like that for now and have another look at it after tomorrow's QF. Well, I will if Chela's on first. If he's on in the evening, I'll have to see what I do, as I'm off for the weekend

Never seen Federer hit so many errors i dont think. This whole RG is messing him up imo.

Agree with Wittman about Chela. Gonzalez game was laughable wasn't it.

[rene]

Chela has to be good at the moment. A player who beat the Ace-player Roddick 0-6 and 4-6 must be on top at the moment.

Roddick has one of the fastest 1st serves .. 0 games for him in the first.. unbelievable great effort by Chela

[bulit]

Originally Posted by bulit

Davydenko to beat Starace @1.9

2:1 for Davydenko

Friday, May 11, 2007
WTA Berlin (GER) - Claycourt, World
10:00 AM Justine Henin (BEL) 1.01
Maria Elena Camerin (ITA) 7.50
11:15 AM Nadia Petrova (RUS) 1.80
Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 1.80
12:30 PM Ana Ivanovic (SRB) 1.55
Patty Schnyder (SUI) 2.14

WTA Prague (CZE) - Claycourt, World
12:00 PM Marion Bartoli (FRA) 1.43
Jarmila Gajdosova (SVK) 2.42
1:15 PM Julia Schruff (GER) 2.09
Klara Zakopalova (CZE) 1.55
2:30 PM Victoria Azarenka (BLR) 1.31
Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) 2.87
3:45 PM Akiko Morigami (JPN) 1.70
Camille Pin (FRA) 1.91


ATP Masters - Rome (ITA) - Red Clay, World
1:00 PM Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 1.80
Tommy Robredo (ESP) 1.80
2:15 PM Tomas Berdych (CZE) 1.52
Filippo Volandri (ITA) 2.20
3:30 PM Rafael Nadal (ESP) 1.09
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 5.14
8:30 PM Fernando Gonzalez (CHI) 1.83
Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG) 1.77

[Wittmann 44]

Another absolutely dire day today . 2 from 5 with Roddick’s loss causing special carnage. Checking his records he has only suffered two other 6-0 set losses one of which was to Federer. Thought Baghdatis might put me near break even but he squandered 2 break of serves to lose the second set against Djokovic.

Some might stop at this point but its like the charge of the Light Brigade here.

There is one bet tomorrow that is in my view an absolute cracker. That can be taken with a pinch of salt given my week this week but I’l give the game and the details.

Azarenka vs Sibilkova (Prague)

Azarenka junior US and Australian Open champion in 2005 is set to be the next big thing in women’s tennis. The 17 year old Belarussian started her full match quota this year and last week underlined her promise with a run to the finals in Estoril (on clay) beating 4 top 50 opponents before losing a 3 set final to Greta Arn. She started this week on fire again knocking out Sucha in the first round and the 5th seed Dechy (49 in the world) in the last round. She faces Slovkian Sibilkova in the QF a player she has beaten on hardcourt and grass. Azarenkas record at this stage of tournaments is amazing. She is played 16 and won 14 in QF. Only 3 were WTA events but even in the ITF events she has beaten some useful players. She is unbeaten in a quarter final since March 2005 (10 events).

Sibilkova is ranked 75 places below her. She has already played qualifuers here so this will be her 6th match in seven days. Clay is probably her best surface but bar Dulko (who had played a lot of tennis) she has beaten no one of note in the last year. This will be Sibilkova’s first QF at this level. Her QF record is P9 W6 but all at lower grade events.

Azarenka to put a smile on my face.

4 Units @ 1.5

Zapalkova vs Schruff

1 -1 in the head to heads but Zaplkova has won the sole clay encounter. Schruff usually falters badly at this level. She has lost 8 of her last 9 QF and her sole win was against a player ranked in the 400s. Zaplakova has won 7 of her last 10 QF (8 of them WTA events) and 3 of the 4 clay QFs. She beat the useful (on clay at this level) Razzano and Strycova in the last rounds and made the semi finals here on her only other appearance in 2005. Schruff had a good win last round but with her record at the business end doesn’t appeal much. My main concernis fatigure on the past of Zapalkova as she has come through the qualifiers.

Zapalkova 2 Units @ 1.74


Berdych - Volandri


Berdych should have too much for Flip Volandri tomorrow. Won the last 3 meetings (all on clay) and demolished Acasuso last round who was expected to trouble him. Federer was the architect of his won downfall today and Volandri has never gone beyond a Masters QF in 4 efforts with a set count that reads W1 L8. Berdych is 11-3 on clay this season with the defeats to Nadal, Roddick and Youznhy. Volandri in an injury dogged season is 7 – 4 on clay.

Berdych 2 Units @ 1.58

I’d fancy Robredo to be too consistent for Davydenko but its too close at the prices. I liked Chela against Gonzo based on their respective performances today but Gonzalez raises his game when it counts and the split H to H of 3-3 tells how close it is likely to be. Chela never beyond a Masters QF has a tough ask tomorrow and at odds on no appeal.

Ivanovic – Schynder

In Germany schynder leads Ivanovic 4-1 on the H to H and had an excellent win over Hingis today including a 6-0 second set drubbing. Schynder is top 10 on clay which is Ivanovic’s least favourite surface. Schynder is flaky but I’d still make this a coin toss so some small value in the Swiss at what looks like being around 2.3 or 2.4 on BF.

Schynder 1.5 Units @ anything over 2.3

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Some might stop at this point but its like the charge of the Light Brigade here.

I know the feeling well, Wittmann. Keep plugging away though

Can see where you're coming from on Azarenka, but I'd just be a bit concerned that tiredness might start setting in soon, after reaching the final last week and now a decent run this week too. On form she's clear favourite, but I don't think I'd want to back her at such a short price.

I can't bring myself to oppose Schruff, having already done it once this week (against Poutchkova) and lost. Know nothing about Zapalkova, I have to admit.

Agree on Berdych, and may well go with him myself. Slight concern I guess about the home crowd factor, but that can only take you so far.

Would also agree that Ivanovic v Schnyder looks like a coin toss, both been in fantastic form this week, but 2.3 on Schnyder does look to be a decent price.

For me, may be interested in Bartoli to beat Gajdosova, although that one's just about to start, may see how it's going in-running before betting.

And Djokovic is a pretty big price to beat Nadal. Nadal hugely impressive, but Djokovic is an excellent player, on his day he's well capable of giving Nadal problems.