Tennis 14th- 20th (ATP Hamburg, WTA Rome & Morocco)

[rcgills]

A few bets for today:

Lay Nadal v Hewitt @ 1.1, liability 1pt

Just a speculative one really, Hewitt in decent form, and has a good H2H against Nadal, albeit with Nadal winning their only meeting on clay. Someone some time surely has to beat Nadal, and fingers crossed it can be Hewitt today

Jankovic v Schnyder over 21.5 games @ 1.833 2pts

Both players in very good form this week, can see this one going to 3 sets, and if it does then the bet's as good as won (barring 3 very one-sided sets)

Olaru (-3.5) v Sequera @ 1.833 4pts

Olaru has played three qualifying rounds and three rounds in the main event, and has won all 6 in straight sets, beating a 3.5 game handicap in all 6. As I mentioned yesterday, she's in great form on clay and was on a roll coming into this tournament.

[Martens]

hamburg semis

federer v moya correct score 2-1,or 1-2 two lines

nadal v hewitt correct score 2-1 or 1-2 two lines

i think both moya and hewitt can win at least a set against huge favourites today,

however, tennis is not the ideal sport for betting, especially saturday noon, lot of soccer options,my idea is without money involved, i am clear to all readers, actually this is a hope,or a wish to see the outsiders winning today, but i am away of any money risk

good luck to all

[asto85]

Over 19.5 games NADAL v HEWITT @ 5/6 sporting odds.
staking on Laying NADAL is surely just wasting money (?)

[Wittmann 44]

Hello Martens

Welcome to the Daily Punt.

Been very impressed with Moya so far in Hamburg. His mental strength yesterday was very impressive. He squandered a chance when serving for thefinal set but then won when breaking Djokovic when the Serb was serving to stay in it. I've been backing him for the last two rounds but there are question marks over his victories in my mind - Blake is not a clay courter, Berdych can be spotty and Djokovic is carrying an injury. Having said that a great achievement to make his first Masters SF in 3 years. He is 0-6 vs Federer (last game 2005) but Fed is definitely showing weakness. Moya is nearly 31 and I'm not sure how good the engine is anymore.

Based more on Feds possible weakness than Moya's strengths I'm having a small dabble on Moya

0.5 Units Moya @ 11.00
0.5 Units Federer 2-1 @ 4.9

I think Nadal will beat Hewitt comfortably. The Aussie serving looks patchy from what I've seen (didn't see yesterdays game) and Nadal will be all over his second serve like he was with Gonzalez. Hewitt will always give 100% but I'm not sure he has the weapons to trouble Nadal on clay.

As mentioned yesterday I really rate Jankovic and I think her mobility will be far too much for Schynder. Patty has beaten Serena Williams for the first time in 7 and I can see a comedown here. Jankjovic is good at the business end of events - the last players to defeat her at a SF stage have been Henin Hardenne (*3), Mauresemo (*2). I don't bracket Schynder with those. She chokes when it matters (lost last 5 semis) and I think Jankovic will have too much here.

Jankovic 2 Units @ 1.44

In Fez I'm going to take a position on the Olaru - Sequera game. Olaru is definitely a young player on the rise but quotes of 1.48 look very skinny in my view. This is her 7th game in as many days and Sequera is no mug at this level. She has won 6 of her last 8 ITF semi finals (one of the losses was a retirement) and she is definitely the best player Olaru will have met to date. This will be closer than the prices indicate.

Sequera 1 Unit @ 3.05

Had 2 winners and a loser yesterday. Odds against shouts Moya and Wozniak won while Kloessel lost a tight 3 setter in Fez

ATP today staked 1.5 Units
ATP today profit 2.16 Units

ATP event staked 25.25 Units
ATP event Profit : 17.39 Units

WTA today Staked 2.00 Units
WTA today profit 0.63 Units

WTA event staked 9.75 Units
WTA event Loss 1.12 Units

[rcgills]

Ridiculous game between Jankovic and Schnyder - 12 breaks in 16 games. Schnyder didn't manage to hold serve once in the entire bloody match

[bulit]

easy win for Kuznetsova like I said

[Martens]

unbeleivable match nadal v hewitt was it!

great great fight by the aussie, he smelled the miracle, but he failed because opposite was a real giant, mental giant

anyway i correctly predicted the scores, i think the today's battle was a warning for those backed nadal to win the french open at so low price as 1.77 it is

i have to admitt that is even more difficult to face him and hope to win in a three setter match,however, i woudnt touch him at so low

as for tomorrow's final, my opinion is that a federer of a normal level would win, but the guy looks bad at the moment, so NO BET for me

bye bye

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by asto85

Over 19.5 games NADAL v HEWITT @ 5/6 sporting odds.
staking on Laying NADAL is surely just wasting money (?)

Well it gave me a good run for my money, Asto Covered my stake anyway when Hewitt got ahead, so didn't lose out.

Looks like a good day all round in here so far - winners for Wittmann, Bulit and Asto, good call on both men's games by Martens. In fact, the only one without a winner so far is me Still, Wittmann's had 2 winners today, it'd be greedy to ask for another one, so hopefully Olaru will overcome Sequera. Actually, thinking about it, we can both win. A 7-6, 0-6, 7-6 win for Sequera would do nicely, as Olaru would still cover the handicap

[Martens]

Hamburg final

Nadal @1.37 v Federer @3.65

it seems that nobody beleives in the swiss any longer; bettors are truly convinced that spaniard is unbeatable/ i disagree


i go against public opinion, and i bet on federer to win the final
price is great for the number one of the world

i understand very well the opposite idea that surface (clay) is really heavy here, not like in rome where i noticed fast clay, and rafa is the king of clay, but i return that rafa is king, not superman, not somebody arrived from out space,not to mention my ideas of using doping drugs by athletes today

Federer to win the final hamburg @3.65

small stakes

[asto85]

[quote=rcgills;408889]Well it gave me a good run for my money, Asto .


Yes RC I have never liked Hewitt --- but I give him due credit for taking it so close to one of the top players on that surface of all time ( in my opinion) I didnt watch the match, but unless Nadal was below par it must have been a classic. I actually posted cos I dont like folk losing dosh on a potential bad punt but I was close to being wrong! well done!!

[bulit]

Tommorow I can't see anything so good for betting. I'm still waiting for odds for French Open especial for qualifications.
Maybe I will try over on Jankovic but I'm not sure in that. For me best solution is to save my money for monday for big betting.
GL guys tommorow:K

[Wittmann 44]

Good day yesterday with winners in all 3 matches selected. Sequera wins a tie breaker in the final set for a tasty 3/1 shout.


ATP today staked 1.0 Units
ATP today profit 1.85 Units

ATP event staked 26.25 Units
ATP event Profit : 19.24 Units

WTA today Staked 3.00 Units
WTA today profit 2.74 Units

WTA event staked 12.75 Units
WTA event Profit 1.62 Units

Today Nadal’s worst enemy will be himself. He’s beaten Federer when the Swiss has been at the top of his game so when Fed is not playing particularly well as he his at the moment hard to make a case for Federer. I almost never oppose Federe howver so no bet.

Jankovic would make some appeal in the match against Kuznestova if a bigger price but the bookies can’t split them and neither can I . The H to H (All hardcourt from 2006) are in Kuzenstova’s favor but I think that Jankovic is better on the slower surfaces (although Rome is fast clay). Neither player has dropped a set in getting here. Kuzenstova has lost 5 of her 6 clay finals. Too close to call. Another no bet.

The only game that will encourage me to get my hard earned out today is in Fez where the experience of Sequera will probably see off young Canadian Wonzniak. Sequera came from a set down to beat the useful Romanian Olaru yesterday and I think she has played better players than Wozniak en route. It is Wozniak’s first Tier II final. Prior to the event herein Fez she was having a mediocre season. Sequera’s serve is a worry. Her double faulting is amongst the worst but I think Wozniak might just run out of steam today. Reduced stakes.

1.25 Units Sequera @ 1.86

[rcgills]

Nice call on Sequera, Wittmann . Thought it was looking good for my Olaru -3.5 bet when she took the first set 6-0, but wasn't to be.

Nothing of much interest for me today. May possibly be tempted into something in-running in Jankovic v Kuznetsova, possibly backing whoever loses the first set, but other than that nothing else.

[rene]

btw I watched Kohlschreiber - O.Rochus today in german tv (team chamoionsship).
He done a great job versus Rochus and I put him on my list for his next start in an ATP tourney..

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

So Federer finally does it eh?

I thought his price was itneresting pre game but thought he had lost it 1-0 down in sets and then 1-1 and 2bps for Nadal. Fed just looked like he had mentally gone but credit where credit is due and what a turnaround from him.

To win something like 11 games straight on clay against Nadal is something else, especially with how comfortable it got towards the end.