FRENCH OPEN 2007

[rene]

Santoro with good tennis versus Chela. Chela made some unforced errors and bring Santoro back on the track with this mistakes...

[Wittmann 44]

Gaudio-Gicquel

Not sure how an ex French Open winner who has reached the 3rd round or better in his last 5 shows can start an underdog against a player who lost 6-1,6-0 to Gilles Simon recently and whose record here at RG is simply terrible. Gaudio is in turmoil – there can be little doubt about that. I’ve seen him recently against Roddick and against Gasquet and while there is no way he is the player he was I still think he represents real value here.

1.5 Units Gaudio @ 2.28

Henman-Gulbis

Henman’s career well into the wind down but he still might be worth a few quid today against Gulbis whose sole clay victories in the last 8 were against two players ranked outside the top 500. He has lost to Cilic, Summerer and Clement recently which hardly bodes well for today. The Latvian (like Henman) likes it fast – best results on indoor hard and on carpet. Unlike Tim I don’t think he has the experience or ability to cope with the experience of what is only his third Grand Slam appearance and his first at Roland Garros.

2.5 Units Henman @ 1.54

Zabaleta – Calleri

Lots of history between these two Argentinians – Calleri is 3-1 on clay although two of those went to three sets and the form is not very recent. Zabaelta is in as a lucky loser here having fallen at final qualifying. His recent form is showing signs of receovery – he has won Challengers in Bermuda and Spain this year and finished a runner up in Houston. Calleri is operating at a higher current level but he has lost the last 4 from 5 and has a very poor Roland Garros record. Zabalata a speculative punt here.

0.75 Units Zabaleta @ 3.6


Querry-Recouderec

Recouderec has come through qualifiying here trailing a career to date spent at low level Challenger events. He has met 8 players in the top 100 (5 on clay) and lost all bar 1 – he has managed to win 2 sets and loser 15 in those games. Querry is like most of the Yanks not a huge fan of clay but he has a solid serve, has played some useful clay events this year and should have too much experience at a higher level.

1.5 Units Querry @ 1.60

[rcgills]

Well, my day all hinges on whether Gaudio can come from 2-1 down to see off Gicquel. If he can, I'll finish around 1pt in profit, if he can't, I'll be about 3.5pts down. Garcia Lopez threw away a 2 set lead against Wawrinka, which is a bit of a bugger when he's your biggest bet of the day Meusburger also threw away a 3-0 lead (with 2 breaks) in the second set against Schiavone, which cost me that bet. Story of what might have been (looking like the story of my year actually ).

For the outrights, Kohlschreiber's in the mother of all battles to try to beat Dlouhy, currently 14-13 to Kohlschreiber in the deciding set . Even if he makes it through this round, not sure I fancy his chances of going any further.

Of possible interest for the Melzer bet, Gonzalez, who would (if everything went according to seeding) be due to meet Melzer in the 3rd round, is 2-0 down to Stepanek. May open things up a little bit more if he gets knocked out

[Martens]

here i am as i promised

i go with favorites as i explained,especially in early rounds

roland garros second round

my top selectinons for maximum stakes are:

Robredo to beat Ekonomides

Baghdatis to beat Pless

i dont confuse you with prices,for me 1.10 is enough, i watched many games today,i can say i am confident

robredo is a guarantee player,a fighter, playing against 28 old ekonomides,after he did his first grand slam win against poor cuccione

robredo for me no doupt at max even price is 1.05

baghdatis was impressive today against grojhean, the cypriot reminded me some great performances during last wimbledon, he was absolutely efficient, with top shots,and top reactions within the game

for me "ionised" baghdatis" is a sure bet against pless,i dont underestimate the danish,he was quite impressive against federer in dubai, but imo, he can do nothing against "ionised" baghdatis

odds dont bother me,i will take both even they are 1.05-1.10

[Wittmann 44]

..

[Wittmann 44]

Mixed day today with my staking not helping. Has a 12/1 winner which I put all of 0.25 units on while at the same time putting my biggest stake of the day on Henman who got completely gobbed . That man has cost me so much over the years but at least he is usually competitive. As it is he becomes Gulbis's biggest scalp in a long while. Opposed almost everyone here in backing Cilic who got gubbed on as well.

Ollie Rochus had a great effort to take Monfils to 5 - the Frenchman's superior serving the difference. As exepcted Blake and Roddick take early showers. A number of seeds gone from the 3rd quarter - Calleri, Hrbaty, Roddick & Mayer. Performance of the day Kohlscreiber who with Dlouhy tried their best to break the number of games in the epic Santoro-Clement match from 2004. Santoro who won that game in 2004 actually won in the next round so I wouldn't rule out Kohlschreiber at all.

Good stuff Fazeman with 2 from 2. Great stuff from Gaudio as well for me RCGills. Made what would have been a much larger loss on the mens manageable. I'll try and watch his match tonight but he looks to have a mountain to climb against Hewitt.

All the women's selections came home with some nice odds against for a few so nice profit overall.

1.5 Units Cilic @ 1.84 -1.5 Units
0.5 Units Peya @ 3.5 -0.5 Units
0.75 Units Vassselin @ 2.62 +1.15 Units
2 Units Vliegen @ 1.40 +0.76 Units
2 Units Devlider @ 1.73 -2 Units
0.75 Units Melzer @ 3.20 +2.28 Units
0.75 Units C.Rochus @ 2.7 -0.75 Units
1 Unit O.Rochus @ 3.05 -1 Unit
1.5 Units Gaudio @ 2.28 +1.82 Units
2.5 Units Henman @ 1.54 -2.50 Units
0.75 Units Zabaleta @ 3.6 +1.85 Units
1.5 Units Querry @ 1.60 -1.5 Units

Staked : 15.5 Units
Loss 1.88 Units

1.5 Units Garbin @ 1.64 +0.91 Units
2 Units Llagoestra @ 1.65 +1.23 Units
1 Unit Sequera @ 2.66 +1.58 Units
Risk 0.25 Units Lay Petrova @ 1.09 +2.88 Units

Staked 4.75 Units
Profit 6.36 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Garcia Lopez threw away a 2 set lead against Wawrinka

I hate that. Happened me 3 times last year. Didn't get a single one going my way either.

[bulit]

Originally Posted by bulit

What's wrong with Chela?
He can't beat old Santoro. This will be one veeeeeery loooooong match.
C'mon Chela for all us win this match

Chela 3-1
Last week I told everybody to play on Kohlshreiber and after 71 gems he won. I think that he will not have power for one more match. For low stake I'll try against him when I see his oposit in second round.
Tommorow Ivanovic,Henin,Kuznetsova are first picks and also Medina. That will be my first combo all on -1 with medim stake

[bulit]

Wednesday, May 30, 2007
French Open - Paris (FRA) - Men, World
11:00 AM Marat Safin (RUS) 1.12
Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) 4.57
12:15 PM Richard Gasquet (FRA) 1.14
Kristof Vliegen (BEL) 4.27
12:15 PM Tommy Robredo (ESP) 1.04
Konstantinos Economidis (GRE) 6.65
12:45 PM Guillermo Canas (ARG) 1.04
Simone Bolelli (ITA) 6.65
1:30 PM Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) 1.06
Nicolas Lapentti (ECU) 5.90
1:30 PM Nicolas Almagro (ESP) 1.07
Michael Llodra (FRA) 5.65
1:30 PM Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 1.01
Werner Eschauer (AUT) 8.27
1:45 PM Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG) 1.50
Gael Monfils (FRA) 2.25
2:00 PM Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) 1.07
Stefan Koubek (AUT) 5.65
2:45 PM Filippo Volandri (ITA) 1.26
Martin Vassallo Arguello (ARG) 3.15
2:45 PM Juan Monaco (ARG) 1.32
Jürgen Melzer (AUT) 2.82
2:45 PM Potito Starace (ITA) 1.17
Carlos Berlocq (ARG) 3.88
3:00 PM David Nalbandian (ARG) 1.18
Ivan Navarro Pastor (ESP) 3.78
3:00 PM Ivan Ljubicic (CRO) 1.18
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 3.75
3:00 PM Radek Stepanek (CZE) 1.14
Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) 4.27
3:30 PM Roger Federer (SUI) 1.01
Thierry Ascione (FRA) 8.30

French Open - Paris (FRA) - Women, World
12:15 PM Tatiana Poutchek (BLR) 1.90
Youlia Fedossova (FRA) 1.70
12:45 PM Sania Mirza (IND) 1.65
Alberta Brianti (ITA) 1.93
11:00 AM Ai Sugiyama (JPN) 1.20
Eva Birnerova (CZE) 3.45
11:00 AM Alona Bondarenko (UKR) 1.13
Iveta Benesova (CZE) 4.25
11:00 AM Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) 1.01
Laura Granville (USA) 8.00
11:00 AM Ana Ivanovic (SRB) 1.03
Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) 6.80
11:00 AM Anabel Medina-Garrigues (ESP) 1.10
Varvara Lepchenko (UZB) 4.75
11:00 AM Anastasia Myskina (RUS) 2.22
Meghann Shaughnessy (USA) 1.50
11:00 AM Anna Chakvetadze (RUS) 1.09
Alicia Molik (AUS) 4.99
11:00 AM Anne Kremer (LUX) 2.90
Agnes Szavay (HUN) 1.29

11:00 AM Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 1.05
Jelena Kostanic Tosic (CRO) 6.00
11:00 AM Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) 1.30
Tiantian Sun (CHN) 2.82
11:00 AM Elena Likhovtseva (RUS) 1.79
Yung-Jan Chan (TPE) 1.79
11:00 AM Flavia Pennetta (ITA) 1.11
Nicole Pratt (AUS) 4.50
11:00 AM Gisela Dulko (ARG) 1.16
Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE) 4.01
11:00 AM Ioana Raluca Olaru (ROU) 2.90
Julia Vakulenko (UKR) 1.30
11:00 AM Jill Craybas (USA) 2.63
Lourdes Dominguez-Lino (ESP) 1.35
11:00 AM Julia Schruff (GER) 1.67
Alla Kudryavtseva (RUS) 1.94
11:00 AM Justine Henin (BEL) 1.01
Tamira Paszek (AUT) 8.00
11:00 AM Katarina Srebotnik (SLO) 1.14
Anastasia Rodionova (RUS) 4.22
11:00 AM Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) 1.26
Zuzana Ondraskova (CZE) 3.03
11:00 AM Lucie Safarova (CZE) 1.03
Yulia Beygelzimer (UKR) 6.90
11:00 AM Maria Sharapova (RUS) 1.04
Emilie Loit (FRA) 6.26
11:00 AM Martina Muller (GER) 1.39
Rossana Neffa-De Los Rios (PAR) 2.47
11:00 AM Meilen Tu (USA) 1.70
Romina Oprandi (ITA) 1.90
11:00 AM Nathalie Dechy (FRA) 1.34
Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 2.65
11:00 AM Olga Poutchkova (RUS) 2.09
Eleni Daniilidou (GRE) 1.57
11:00 AM Patty Schnyder (SUI) 1.02
Martina Sucha (SVK) 7.00
11:00 AM Shahar Peer (ISR) 1.02
Kaia Kanepi (EST) 7.00
11:00 AM Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 1.01
Ekaterina Bychkova (RUS) 8.00
11:00 AM Vasilisa Bardina (RUS) 2.07
Edina Gallovits (ROU) 1.58
11:00 AM Vera Dushevina (RUS) 1.33
Camille Pin (FRA) 2.71
11:00 AM Victoria Azarenka (BLR) 1.19
Karin Knapp (ITA) 3.50

[bulit]

Gasquet,Robredo,Youzhny,Davydenko,Nalbandian,Stepa nek are mine mans picks for tommorow. Also I go all with handicap for medium bet. Tommorow I'll post some previews

[Beanie]

Great stuff chaps. Good news too with Kirilenko winning easily today...a few more wins and we'll get some televised matches Any excuse for some pics:







I'm compelled to back female sportspeople who attain a certain level of hotness, and I believe our Maria has reached that level, so I'll be on for her second round match against Sam Stosur, a veritable manbeast by comparison. Boooo hisss....

[rcgills]

OK, I'm going to join Wittmann in keeping a record of my bets, just so I can see where I'm going wrong:

Men
Staked: 9pts
Returned: 10.03pts
P/L: +1.03pts

Women
Staked: 4pts
Returned: 4.09pts
P/L: +0.09pts

Back in a bit with picks for today, but am going to restart my PC first, very slow for some reason and driving me round the twist

[rcgills]

Dominguez Lino to beat Craybas @ 1.42 - 3pts

Should hopefully be fairly straightforward, this one (famous last words ). Craybas not much of a clay-courter, 2-5 this year, and in 6 attempts at Roland Garros, has only ever won 1 match, making a 1st round exit in each of her last 5 attempts.

Hartfield to beat Ginepri @ 1.79 - 2pts

Currently 1 set all overnight, but Hartfield has to be favourite here. Ginepri has a terrible record on clay: 0-4 for the past year, 22-31 for his career, and he's gone out in the first round of each of the 4 times he's played here.

Ljubicic to beat Wawrinka @ 1.285 - 4pts

Opposed Wawrinka yesterday and he should really have been finished off by Ramirez Hidalgo (not Garcia Lopez as I called him yesterday for some reason - these Spaniards and their double surnames, gets me all confused ), but fought back from 2 sets down to win in the 5th set. But having just come back from a lengthy injury lay-off, and now a gruelling 5-setter in the first round, I'd hope Ljubicic should be able to see him off fairly comfortably.

Poutchkova v Daniilidou @ 2.64 - 1.5pts

The Greek isn't having a very good year really, and isn't in great clay form - 1st round exits in her last 3 tournaments, and lost to the world no. 325 in the one before that. Has gone out in the first round at RG in each of the last 3 years. Looking at her results, Poutchkova's clay form is patchy at best, but against an out of sorts Daniilidou, I'm not sure she should be the outsider here.

Am also tempted by a lay of Nalbandian. I don't trust him much these days, and reckon he could be vulnerable to Navarro Pastor. Will leave that for in-running though. One other bet pending, but as it's not yet been matched, I'll leave it for now.

[rene]

what about Tipsarevic - Safin?
Tipsarevic won his last Challenger Start on clay in Praque. Safin isn´t a star on clay..

5 set match?
Tipsarevic to win?
any thoughts?

[Wittmann 44]

A few from the early starts


Dominguez Lino-Craybas

Lino hasn’t really made the jump from ITF to the WTA tour but she should still have too much for Craybas who is one of the oldest players on the WTA tour and whose record in RG reads W1 L5. Her clay record outside the US green clay is similarly poor. Of late her victories on clay have been against terribly out of form players and Lino should have enough to see her off.

Edit: Just noticed RcGills sums my thoughts on this very nicely

1.5 Units Dominguez Lino @ 1.46

Knapp-Azarenka

Azarenka retired with a wrist injury in Prague and for a first time senior appearance at RG looks very short. She is a definite star in the making but Knapp could make this more awkward than the prices suggest.

0.5 Units Knapp @ 4.2
0.5 Units Azarenka 2-1 @ 5.8

Myskina_Shaugnessy

Hard to say how Myskina will be having played only 1 game this year after surgery. She is still an ex Champion and Shaugnessy is limited on clay. Worth a dabble.

1.25 Units Myskina @ 2.76

Safarova-Bergylezmier

Another speculative punt against a player with a possibly njury

Risk 0.25 Units Lay Safarova @ 1.08
0.25 Units Safarova 2-1 @ 5.2