FRENCH OPEN 2007

[rene]

4-2 in the 5th set for Hartfield.
Hope that the Gaucho make his homework and beat the american ...

[rene]

Hartfield is through .. and my 9.25 also .. what a good start

Now I go to buy me some more RAM storage for my laptop .. paid by bwin

[Napoleon Solo]

Well done rene!

Gonna chance Monfils @ 3.00 against Chela. I think he's a bit overpriced considering his current form on clay.

[rcgills]

Enough signs for me in the opening few games that Navarro Pastor can make a decent match of this against Nalbandian.

Lay Nalbandian @ 1.23, liability 1pt

Great bets flying in from all parts here - Rene with his 9.25 double, and Wittmann's lay of Gasquet paying off too, plus Olaru beating Vakulenko

[engineer]

And one from me, as I laied 2:0 victory of Na Li against Parmentier. I like betting against asian players, since they're always capable of shite performance. Go, French lass!

[engineer]

Cool, Kirilenko wins second set and is back in the match.
Hopefully she'll make it, I even had a bet on her

[rene]

Well done rene!

Gonna chance Monfils @ 3.00 against Chela. I think he's a bit overpriced considering his current form on clay.

thanks.

If I have more holidays I´ll have more of these bets in tennis. But I have to watch the players before I bet on them. Stats aren´t the best facts in Tennis.

Like the livebet 9-11 games in first set Sharapova - Liot. Would bet on it after the first couple of serves but the bookie was faster than me .. saw that Liot has a good day and Sharapova has to feel good on the court to be good. And she had some problems with the starts on clay. odd: 2.70 ... a shite ...

I have a look on the tomorrows lineup and hope that the clouds stay away from Paris!

[bulit]

It's raining again I hate rain when I'm watching tennis

[Wittmann 44]

Nice stuff with Monfils there Rockin Cherub .

I backed him all last week but thought he'd run out of steam this week.

[Beanie]

Kirilenko outsted in a tight match by old grotbag Stosur...life isn't fair sometimes.

Onto an outright bet...Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 500 on Betfair...a cracking punt on the face of it. Ok he will meet Federer in the 4th round if he wins his next match, but anyone with designs on winning this thing will have to face one of the big 2 soon enough...and i'd much rather it was Fed. Ferrero has seemed in good form so far this tourney, likes the surface, likes the tourney...ok nowhere near the form he was in when he won but that's not to say he can't get back there someday, and thats gotta start somewhere. Fed has been untroubled too, but he looked just a little bothered when Ascione put him under a slight bit of pressure in the 3rd set, and if Ferrero can get the upper hand early on and unsettle the no. 1, then why not? 1pt for me, and untold riches if it comes off.

[Wittmann 44]

A few from the men’s games tomorrow.


Mathieu-Simon

An all French clash here. Mathieu easily beat Simon in their sole clay clash in 2005 and I’d expect him to have too much again today. Simon hit a lot of unforced errors when muddling to a 4 set victory against Spadea while Mathieu was more economical in seeing of f the more useful Mayer. Mathieu having a good season on clay with wins in Casablance and semis in Estoril. He is a very impressive W11 L4 versus top 100 player s on clay this season. He made the third round here in 2005 and 2006 while this will be Simon’s first appearance beyond the first in 4 outings.

2 Units Mathieu @ 1.46

Tursonov-Verdasco


Tursonov is not a natural clay courter but he still looks very big against Verdasco who stuttered somewhat against Haehnel before beating him in 4. Prior to that Verdacso had lost 7 on the bounce (admittedly against some very good players). He is a poor 7-13 for the year to date and this is his first time beyond Round 1 in three efforts. Tursonov has done nothing of any real note on clay but he has pushed better players than Verdacso hard and quotes of 3.15 should be tighter in my mind.

0.75 Units Tursonov @ 3.15

Karlovic-BJorkman

Bjorkman belied his years by coming from 2 sets down to beat Luzack while Karlovic bombed down 22 aces when seeing off Blake with relatively little fuss. Bjorkman’s main focus will be on a third doubles title in a row here with partner Miryni and I really can’t see him chasing this one too hard if it looks like slipping away from him. Karlovic’s serve will help him win cheap points here.

2 Units Karlovic @1.54

Kohlsreiber_Hernandez

I intended to back Hernandez here as I assumed he would start a nicely prized underdog around 2.5 but instead he goes off at just over evens. This makes KOhlsreiber serious value in my mind. He had a marathon 5 setter to beat Dlouhy first round and has lost both meetings (on clay) with Hernandez. One was however back in 2003 and the other was in the middle of a post injury mini slump. This year he has made the QF in Monte Carlo, won in Muncih and beat some fairly big names along the way (Youznhy, Baghdatis, Nalbandian among them). Hernandez is having an excellent year as well but he is operateing at a lower level to KOhlsreiber and I make the hard hitting German decent value.

Kohlsereiber 2 Units @ 1.94

Zabaleta – Patience


With Zabaleta fresh from an excellent win against Calleri and a great return to form in 2007 I cannot see Patience troubling him too much. Patience's victory against Davydenko a high point this year but one I backed myself as the Russian was widely known to be carrying an injury at the ntime.Patience hit a lot of ues in the first round something which a better player than his French wildcard opponent would have capitalised on. Sole meeting on clay a victory for the Argentine. Patience made heavy enough weather beatinga wildcard in the first round and prior to that Francis Aldi (who??) beat him which is more typical of his patcy record.

2 Units Zabaleta @ 1.45

[Wittmann 44]

Another profitable day today with a small ATP and WTA profit. Started badly but 3 from 3 at the tail end of the ladies helped stem the tide. I must stop betting on Melzer. 3 times I’ve backed in the last month and all losers. Backing Myskina witha single game played all year a very stupid play. Opposing players with knocks again very profitable with a big winner in Vliegen at nearly 9/1 and Olaru at 3/1. Playing possibly 5 sets with blisters or a gimpy ankle not as possible to play through the pain as a 3 setter.

Risk 0.25 Units Lay Gasquet @ 1.13 (i/r) +1.83 Units
1.25 Units Melzer @ 2.92 -1.25 Units

Today - Staked 1.50 Units Profit 0.58 Units
To date - Staked 17 Units Loss 1.30 Units

0.75 Units Heish @ 3.8 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Dulko @ 4.2 -0.25 Units
1.5 Units Dominguez Lino @ 1.46 -1.50 Units
0.5 Units Knapp @ 4.2 +1.52 Units
0.5 Units Azarenka 2-1 @ 5.8 -0.5 Units
1.25 Units Myskina @ 2.76 -1.25 Units
Risk 0.25 Units Lay Safarova @ 1.08 -0.25 Units
0.25 Units Safarova 2-1 @ 5.2 -0.25 Units
0.75 Units Olaru @ 3.0 +1.43 Units
0.50 Units Vakulenko 2-1 @ 4.5 -0.50 Units
2.5 Units Muller @ 1.7 +1.66 UNits
2 Units Tu @ 1.7 +1.33 Units

Today - Staked 11 Units Profit 0.69 Units
To date - Staked 15.75 Units Profit 7.05 Units

[rcgills]

Ended up slightly down yesterday, thanks mainly to Dominguez Lino failing to beat Craybas. Hartfield and Poutchkova won, Navarro Pastor and Dominguez Lino lost, and outright bet on Melzer is also down the pan (and included in the below). Ljubicic match not included for the moment as he didn't end up playing yesterday.

Men
Staked: 13.5pts
Returned: 13.53pts
P/L: +0.03pts

Women
Staked: 8.5pts
Returned: 7.93pts
P/L: -0.57pts

Onto today's matches:

Montañes to beat Gulbic, Mathieu to beat Simon, Karlovic to beat Bjorkman, treble @ 2.86 2pts

Gulbic beat Henman in the first round, but I suspect that tells us more about Henman these days than it does about Gulbic. Montañes having a decent season, and should be able to see off Gulbic.

Mathieu is having a pretty good season on clay, winning in Casablanca and making the semis in Estoril. Simon's 1st round win against Spadea was his first win at Roland Garros in 4 attempts.

Clay might not be Karlovic's best surface for his lethal serve, but he's still capable of getting results on clay. Bjorkman's career record of 10-39 on clay shows what he thinks of it Came from 2 sets down to beat Luczak in the first round, but at his age, 5 set matches in the first round must be the last thing he wants.

Tursunov to beat Verdasco @ 3.2 1.5pts

I've always found Verdasco to be a pretty frustrating player. Can play some great tennis at times, but lacks consistency. He's struggling for form of late, 3-7 for his last 10 matches. Unlike most of the Spaniards, clay is not really his preferred surface. It's not Tursunov's either, admittedly, but unless Verdasco shows up on top form, Tursunov's more than capable of making a match of this one IMO.

Lay Nadal v Cipolla @1.02, liability 0.1pts.

Based purely on the possibility that Nadal might pull a muscle or something, obviously not on the chance that Cipolla might actually beat him. For a tiny outlay, I'm prepared to accept a 1 in 50 chance of that happening.

For the women:

Lay Schnyder v K Bondarenko @ 1.23, liability 1pt
Schnyder in decent form of late, but struggled in her 1st round match, dropping the first set before fighting back to beat Sucha. Bondarenko, meanwhile, was destroying Ondraskova 6-0 6-1. Bondarenko in good form on clay, 12-5 this year, and I reckon this is closer than the odds suggest.

Lay Peer v Gallovits @ 1.08, liability 0.5pts
At this price, have to take a chance on Gallovits. In superb clay court form, albeit obviously at a lower level than Peer. Her first round win here took her to 19-3 on clay for the year, with 2 tournament wins so far. Peer should be a different class, but I can't ignore Gallovits with the momentum she's currently got behind her.

Cibulkova to beat Muller @ 2.14 2pts
Cibulkova 9-4 on clay this year, and has beaten the likes of Dulko, Medina Garrigues and Dushevina, and taken a set off Vaidisova. Muller meanwhile is in indifferent form, and is 4-6 on clay. Not so sure Cibulkova should be the outsider here.

[rcgills]

I forced myself not to read your comments before placing my bets, Wittmann, as I always like to do things on my own judgement rather than getting swayed by others. Very reassuring though to see that we agree on Mathieu, Karlovic and Tursunov

I decided to leave the Kohlschreiber one purely on the basis that I've already got him on the outrights.

Have decided to add Mathieu on the outright bets too, 1.5pts at 330. If he beats Simon, a 3rd round clash with Massu or Andreev is winnable, as is Baghdatis (if everything goes to seeding) in the 4th round. Djokovic or Ferrer in the QF will be tougher, but if he's made it that far, the price will have dropped a fair bit, you'd think.

[Wittmann 44]

One from the early Ladies starts

Srebotnik-Dushevina

Srebotnik not having a particularly good year but she is still a class above Dushevina in my book. Dushevina has not kicked on from a reasonable 2005 and her recent record is very poor. Srebotnik made only 13 UEs in her first round win and her consistency should be too much here.

2 Units Srebotnik @ 1.62

We’ll sink or swin together today RC Have a very big bet on Karlovic. Weight of money has cut him to 1.44. Bummed at Wawrinka getting the extra day recovery against Lube. Makes my bet from yesterday a lot less pretty