French Open - 3rd Round On Selections Here

[rcgills]

No worries Bulit Hopefully Safarova will beat Chakvetadze later to ensure I don't lose too much today.

Looks like you're having a good day so far

[bulit]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Looks like you're having a good day so far

Good day? It's amazing. 3/3 with big stake.
Jankovic 6-1 first set and I think Bartoli will give up. She has some problems with injures but who cares only important is Jankovic wins.

I'll skip Safarova but yesterday she was excellent against Mauresmo. On the other side Chakvetadze is also in great form so best solution for me is to skip that match. I hope that Safarova will win this match only for you rcgills

[bulit]

Jankovic 2-0
Than you JJ

[rcgills]

Crap day today. Both bets lost, and my one remaining outright on Medina Garrigues is also gone.

Men
Staked: 38.6pts
Returned: 28.57pts
P/L: -10.03pts

Women
Staked: 22.4pts
Returned: 25.82pts
P/L: +6.42pts

Overall: -6.61pts

[edtkh]

With the business end of Roland Garros dawning upon us, it's about time I got involved after escaping a couple of shambolic results in the early rounds...

Starting with the last of the 4th Round matches on Monday.



25pts Djokovic-Moya-Andreev (2.44 @ Ladbrokes)

Bjorkman-Moya is a mismatch, in all honesty. Bjorkman has had a hell of an adventure making the 4th round, equalling his best-ever performance at Roland Garros in 1996. That said, you've got to feel his adventure is all set to end tomorrow against the experienced Moya whose pedigree would still be too strong for many better than the Swede. When you further consider how Bjorkman has been pushed the distance in the earlier rounds (a couple of 4-setters and 5-setters), it's hard to ignore the fact it'd invariably take its toll on his ageing body.

Djokovic, while hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders with a couple of dodgy performances against unfancied Patience and qualifier Recouderc in his earlier rounds, is obviously in better shape than Verdasco in the buildup to Roland Garros. Verdasco, with the exception of his win over Ferrer in the last round, has hardly done anything of note on clay this year (which is quite unlike him, really) and on the back of the Serb's form which has seen his meteoric rise to stardom this year, it's hard to see past Djokovic for this one. As with a couple of earlier tournies which Djokovic has done well in, he's one of those whose game gets better as the tournament wears on. I can't see past the Serb for the win even though Verdasco has a 2-0 h2h lead over him (Djokovic is evidently a rising star and the h2h clearly serves very little purpose in terms of reflecting the reality of both players' form at present).

Lastly, I think Baghdatis is grossly overrated on this surface - Baghdatis simply hasn't done much to impress, really. Wins over over-the-hill Grosjean and a mediocre Hajek (through retirement although the Cypriot was already very much in command at that point) are nothing to shout about and I earnestly believe Andreev will give him a test he has yet to face at this tournament so far. For those who know little about Andreev, he's the last man to beat Nadal on clay prior to Federer ending the Spaniard's 81-match run. That said, I've been following Andreev for a couple of years now and much as he has a knack of going the distance unnecessarily, the Russian's obviously someone who has got nerves of steel - that, very often, has seen him through and I'm convinced his claycourt pedigree coupled by his experience in tight, nerve-wrenching matches will see him prevail. Should the Russian prevail as expected, his anticipated QF showdown with Nadal will be a mouth-watering prospect indeed - but that's a story for another day...



8 pts Nadal to beat Hewitt 3-1 (3.85 @ Betfair)
2 pts Nadal to beat Hewitt 3-2 (11.00 @ Betfair)

We all know what happened when the pair met at the same stage last year with Nadal prevailing 3-1. In that encounter, Hewitt wasn't even half the player on clay he has been over the last 3 weeks IMO.

One of the biggest surprises for me this year has got to be Hewitt's improvement on clay - he's easily in the form of his life as far as his performances on the red dirt go. Looking at how tight the SF clash between the pair at the Hamburg Masters a couple of weeks ago was and how Hewitt battled back from 2-0 down against Gaudio to turn the tide, there's really no discounting the massive improvements Hewitt has made on clay since he parted ways with Roger Rasheed (his ex-coach).

In essence, with two grinders whose determination and perseverance are right up there with the finest in the game, I do envisage a long, drawn-out affair that will be anything but lob-sided. Although I still feel Nadal will prove too strong for Hewitt eventually, I certainly don't see the Spaniard taking this one in straight sets. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Hewitt should provide Nadal with the sternest test in the entire tournament bar the final.


Cheers & Good Luck!

[rcgills]

When I saw you'd posted in the rugby thread the other day, I wondered whether you'd be popping over to the tennis thread, Ed. Remember your tennis posts from PL. Good to see your thoughts in here anyway

Two for me today:

Djokovic to beat Verdasco @ 1.49 4pts

Nothing much to say on this one that Ed's not already said. Decent result for Verdasco in the last round, but I'd expect Djokovic to be a step too far for him now.

Nadal v Hewitt over 34.5 games @ 1.833 3pts

Along similar lines to Ed's set betting on this game, but also covering the option of it being over in 3 closely-fought sets (a 7-6, 7-5, 6-4 or something like that would do me). Of course it doesn't cover 4 not-so-closely-fought sets, but you can't have everything Agree with Ed, Hewitt should make this one tough for Nadal. They've met twice on clay, last year's French Open (total of 38 games) and Hamburg this year (29 games, and that was best of 3 sets).

[rene]

a double for me in ATP today.

Djokovic - Verdasco
Baghdatis - Andreev

Verdasco leads the H2H 2-0, 1-0 on clay in a clear 2 set match 6-4,6-3 last year in Hamburg. Verdasco beat the good russian Tursunov and his spanish mate Ferrer.
Djokovic had only underdogs as opponents on the court in Paris so far. Patience,Recouderc and Giraldo aren´t the greatest names to beat. The spanish has a good chance to win here ... 2.42@bwin

Andreev and Baghdatis had both a good tourney.But the russian played more solid tennis in my eyes and beat the better players so far. 0-0 H2H but Andreev looks better to me 1.43@bwin.

[fazeman]

Baghdatis - Andreev

I've seen the match between Igor and PH and I saw a in-very-good-condition player. More than in the pat the russian seems ready for the important jump. Today he has the possibility against a not-really brilliant Baghdatis. Stake 5\10

Prediction 1
Odd 1.60 (pinnacle)

[edtkh]

rcgills, I had been out of town for the first couple of days when Roland Garros got under way, so thought I should spend the weekend watching some games to get a hang of how this year's tourny is going... Anyway, pretty good start to my personal wagering for this tourny - a pity Hewitt couldn't force a 4th set. Anyway, on to tomorrow...

10pts Vaidisova to beat Jankovic (3.55 @ Betfair)

For the life of me, I can't make much sense on how this one has been priced up. It's ridiculous, really.

Jankovic, for the great run she has had coming into RG and the tournament she has since had, isn't exactly a seasoned claycourter that much better than Vaidisova as her odds would have you believe. Afterall, we're talking about someone who hasn't gotten past the 3rd Round at the French Open prior to this year and actually trails Vaidisova 2-4 on h2h (with Vaidisova winning the only previous claycourt meeting between them). Vaidisova, on the other hand, has been here before when she made the SF last year (and having had the experience of beating Mauresmo and pushing Kuznetsova the distance last year).

Terrific value on the Czech here IMO.


10pts Serena Williams to beat Henin (2.58 @ Betfair)

Another terrific value bet here. For me, this is as good as the final - I can't see the eventual winner of the tourny emerging outside the winner of this clash.

That said, Henin's had a rosy time at Roland Garros over the last couple of years when she seemed to have set one record after another. However, Serena Williams remains for me (and a couple of people are probably sick of how highly I rate her since the PL days , but she remains for me the greatest female tennis player since Steffi Graf) the best player on the tour when she's on top of her game - and her form clearly suggests so. After the sloppy start against Pironkova, she has basically picked up her game so much that she is easily playing her best tennis at the French Open since her triumphant efforts in 2002.

If someone's capable of stopping Henin on clay, it has got to be Serena with her all-encompassing, all-surface game which would overwhelm most ladies on the tour. 2.58 for a 70-30 shot has got to be worth a crack IMO.


20pts Federer-Sharapova (1.47 @ Ladbrokes)

This has got to be the banker bet of the day if there's one to be had. Federer to beat Robredo is pretty much self-explanatory.

I'm pretty surprised with Sharapova's price admittedly. While Sharapova did struggle to see off Schnyder in her last match, I think too much is made of that match, really. If anything, Sharapova's experience and power-oriented game should prove too much for Chakvetadze, who hasn't exactly made light work of unfancied opponents as born out by her tough-battling encounter against Szavay in the 2nd round.


Cheers & Good Luck!


Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 126.00 pts
Profit/Loss : 26.00 pts

PS : There's something wrong with the "bold" function it seems. Can a mod sort out the text which shouldn't be bold?

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Ok think i have your post like you want it Ed

Like RC says, good to see you back posting again. Good luck with your bets mate.

[bulit]

Tuesday 5th of June, 2007

1.36 J Jankovic 3.00 N Vaidisova 11:05

1.53 S Kuznetsova 2.37 A Ivanovic 11:05

1.53 J Henin 2.37 S Williams 12:45

1.40 M Sharapova 2.75 A Chakvetadze 12:45

1.05 R Federer 8.50 T Robredo 14:30

1.72 G Canas 2.00 N Davydenko 14:30

I'm finished with big bets on French Open.Now I'll play for fun.
Jankovic to beat Vaidisova
Jankovic played short match with Bartoli and she had one they more to rest. She is in excellent form and I think that she will win Vaidisova. Vaidisova didn't play a lot's of big tournaments this year and she isn't in form from last year. Jankovic is big favorit here and I hate to bet on supricec in tennis.

Kuznetsova to beat Ivanovic
This will be great match. Ivanovic have great chance to make the best result in carier and Kuznetsova wants revange. Ivanovic beat Kuznetsova in final few weeks ago but I must manshion that Kuznetsova played very hard match with Henin in semis the same day when she played finals with Ivanovic. I think Kuznetsova is better player and even I'm big fan of Ivanovic I'll go against her.

Canas vs Davydenko
I don't like to bet on under/over but in this case I'll try with over on this match. Both players are in good form this year and I think this will be very long match so over for me

GL

[Martens]

Davydenko to beat Canas @2.2

Serena to beat Henin @ 2.5

you will not see me again here until wimbledon,as andrew murray's fan, we are in preparations of the grass grand slam, where we expect the maximum for murray,

anw, davydenko is a very hard working player,in top physical condition,always giving his 100%, not at the class of andreev, but truly hard working and fighting as dog all balls,from the other side we have canas...lol, who is canas??? i dont know,what i know for sure is that the guy was banned from atp events due to dope drugs using,do you still trust him?

personally i dont, if he progress further in roland garros,it would be shame

i m not willing to watch a player of such status, imagine mariano puertas to cme back!, anw davydenko is a guarantee player, i trust him, and i am sure he can beat the argentinian, unless of a super dose doping

as for serena, i am confident he can win again over henin,as he did in australia final, i am not watching women tennis, but this is something like "gift"


today everything was exactly as i predicted, except for the result,bagh was in very bad day, very very poor first serve, and thats was the one and only reason he lost to the top class russian horse andreev, tennis is very strange sport, based on every single individual, we cant be sure of anything, as for djokovic andreev clash,surely i am on russian, no doupt, but i am not sure if he will win, so no bet

see you in wimbledon

[Wittmann 44]

Some nice winners for people today and yesterday here. Hopefully will carry over to the last few days.

Been away entertaining my good lady wife for the weekend so no betting and no tennis bar seeing Djokovic swat Vedrasco aside today. My third biggest bet of the event Dementivea went down in flames to turn my modest profit into a small loss. Have a good feeling about tomorrow.

2 Units Mathieu to beat Simon @ 1.46 +0.87 Units
2 Units Nalbandian vs MOnfils @ 1.71 +1.35 Units
1 Unit Volandri vs Ljubcic @ 2.5 +1.50 Units
Lay Fed vs Starace @ 1.05 -0.25 Units
0.75 Units VLiegen to beat Canas @ 4.7 Units -0.75 Units
0.50 Units CAnas 3-1 @ 4.0 +1.43 Units
1.5 Units Ferrero @ 2.00 -1.50 Units

Today - Staked 8.00 Units Profit +2.69 Units
To date - Staked 34.25 Units -Loss 4.62 Units

Williams to beat Jankovic 1 Unit @ 3.2 -1 Unit
Jankovic 2-1 vs Williams @ 4.2 +1.52 Units
5.5 Units Dementieva @ 1.49/1.50 -5 Units

Today - Staked 7.00 Units Loss -4.98 Units
To date - Staked 24.75 Units Profit +3.25 Units


Of My QF Predications 7 from 8 back before the start of play came in with only Gasquet falling. I went with what I felt was value (ha) and so the only outright alive is Robredo and I can’t see a shock there.

[Wittmann 44]

Some tasty looking QFs coming up in the next two days.

Robredo-Federer

The question here must be can Tommy nick a set from the great man. History doesn’t look good. He is W1 L 15 in his 7 losses to Federer. Like Youznhy another player who Federer well and truly owns, the mental pressure on Robredo must be huge. From what I’ve seen of Robredo he has actually played fairly well so far but you’d have to figure he himself thinks he is beaten here as soon as he steps onto court. Ascione and Youznhy pushed Fed to tiebreaks they both lost. Robredo has the talent but probably not the willpower. Should be straight sets again but price looks too tight.

No Bet

Davydenko-Canas

This looks a toss up to me. Davydenko will play on the front foot aggressive tennis and Canas will soak it up and hope for errors from the Russian. Canas has had some strange results this year – losses on clay to Horna, Simon and Chela and very tight games against the likes of Serra. He was poor I thought against Monaco and it was as much Monaco folding rather than any brilliance on Canas’s part that won that. He has had a fairly straightforward run to the last 8. Davydenko to me looks a bit of value but no more. A 5 setter here wouldn’t surprise bit another no bet.

The ladies looks a lot better from a betting point of view.

Jankovic - Vaidisova



I’d echo Edtkh’s comments re Vaidisova. Jankovic has definitely kicked on from 2006 but I don’t think she has kicked on enough to send her off at 1.39 against a player who has beaten her 4 times and who has takjen a set off her in both defeats. When Vaidisova lost to Jankovic back in January the Serb was a best priced 1.82 on the exchanges. Things have not changed that much in the last 4 months. A bet on the underdog with a cover on the 3 setter is a cracking piece of value.

1.25 Unit Vaidisova @ 3.55
0.75 Units Jankovic 2-1 @ 4.2

Kuznestova- Ivanovic

The split is 2-2 between the two women with Ivanovic winning the most recent final in Berlin when the Russian girl had to play two games in the same day to overcome various rain delays. Kuznetsova has been very impressive so far here – she hasn’t dropped a set to date and her serving has been fairly consistent. Ivanovic was made to work in the 4th round (as you would expect) by Median Garrigues but has played well within herself to get to this stage. Her form this season is the equal of Kuznetsova’s in my view – she has beaten Jankovic (twice) and Sharapova (by retirement admittedly) and the price on her looks large. Another tight match looks likely here.

1 Unit Ivanovic @ 2.74
0.5 Units Kuznestova @ 4.1

Henin-Williams

On any other surface than clay William’s price would look massive. On clay Henin is the woman’s equivalent of Nadal – this is also a grudge match of major proportions after the infamous RG match in 2003 where the crowd turned very nasty at Williams and led her to complain of racism. How the crowd will be tomorrow and how Williams will react is a major imponderable now. I think Henin will win this but I’d prefer to keep my money in my pocket and enjoy this one.


Sharapova-Chekvetadze

Not all is well physically with the Goddess in my view. Her serving has been erratic and the shoulder injury is not healed. The question is can Chekvetadze take advantage. She was very lucky to beat Safarova in the end in the last 16 and she also just about outscored Sugiyama who is not a claycourter. Sharapova bulldozered her in Roland Garros in 2005. Chekvetadze’s record against the top 10 (into which she broke last month) is poor – since 2006 she is W4 L12 and one of those victories was a retirement. She has lost all 5 2007 meetings with this elite and she has also lost all 3 meetings with Sharapova. Questions of fitness aside this would in normal circumstances be an easy match for Sharapova.Clay is not however her surface and she has struggled recently against players like Rezai and Radawanska. What swings it for me in Shrapova’s favour is her incredible QF record – she has won 43 of 51 career QFs and is 26-2 since 2005. Both losses were coincidentally on clay and both to Henin. This is not one for big stakes but I’d still make Sharpova shorter than 1.5 here.

2 Units Sharapova @ 1.50

[rcgills]

As always, seems to be a case of 1 step forward and 2 steps back for me in this tournament. Djokovic a winner, the Hewitt bet an agonising loser (if Hewitt had taken the tie-break, it would've come in, as even a 6-0 to Nadal in the 4th set would've given us 35 games).

Men
Staked: 45.6pts
Returned: 34.43pts
P/L: -11.17pts

Women
Staked: 22.4pts
Returned: 25.82pts
P/L: +3.42pts

Overall: -7.75pts

For today, much as I agree with what Wittmann and Ed have said with regard to Jankovic v Vaidisova, I cannot bring myself to go against Jankovic here. Agree that she's too short a price though, so I'm going to wait for in-running, but if I can get something around 1.6 in-running, I'll be backing her (well, assuming it's a reasonable price for the position she's in - 1.6 if she's a set down wouldn't be a reasonable price). Will wait and see anyway.

Williams tb Henin @ 2.6 2pts

This one should be close, but at this price, Serena has to be worth a shot.

Sharapova v Chakvetadze is one to avoid for me. Admittedly I've not seen as much of the tournament as I would've liked, but from what I have seen, I've not been overly impressed with Sharapova. No way I'd want to be backing her at 1.5, I don't think.

Lay Kuznetsova v Ivanovic @ 1.56, liability 2pts

Again, a price that just has to be taken in what looks set to be a close match. Both players in fantastic form, but Ivanovic has already shown once this year that she can beat Kuznetsova on clay, so at this price she's worth a couple of points.


Federer (-6.5 games) v Robredo @ 1.62 3pts

Can't see Robredo troubling Federer at all, to be honest. Robredo has always struck me as a decent player, borderline top 10, but not the kind of player ever in serious contention for the big tournaments. A Spanish Tim Henman, if you like Two previous meetings on clay, and Federer has cleared a 6.5 game handicap in both of them, despite them being best of 3 sets rather than best of 5 - a 6-1 6-1 in Rome 2003, and a 6-2 6-3 in Hamburg 2005.

No bet for me on the Davydenko v Canas game. May possibly take an interest in-running, but for the time being nothing.

Good luck all for today.