French Open - 3rd Round On Selections Here

[Wittmann 44]

A Spanish Tim Henman, if you like

Can there ever have been a crueller put down of a tennis player aspiring to greatness ?

[rcgills]

Right, a tentative dip into the world of doubles, women's doubles to be precise.

Chan/Chuang tb Molik/Santangelo @ 1.72 2pts

Chan and Chuang are 4th in the official doubles race, and are 5th seeds here. Molik and Santangelo are 17th seeds, but they don't regularly play together. As a team they're ranked 55th in the race, although Santangelo is higher in teams with other players. Taking the individual player rankings (for doubles), Chuang is 12th, Chan 13th, Santangelo 21st and Molik 59th. Chan and Chuang, to my relatively novice eye, look like they should be bigger favourites than they actually are.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Martens

anw, davydenko is a very hard working player,in top physical condition,always giving his 100%

Now whether there's any truth in the rumours or not, I don't know, but there are always quite a few rumours about Davydenko and strange patterns in his matches, I'd say there would be quite a few people that would disagree with you that he always gives 100%

Originally Posted by Martens

i m not willing to watch a player of such status, imagine mariano puertas to cme back!

Funny you should say that - http://es.eurosport.yahoo.com/050620...-competir.html

Link is in Spanish, but it seems Puerta is making his comeback. Not sure whether it's today or tomorrow, seeing as the article says Tuesday 6th June .

Good luck with your picks anyway, Martens, and see you back here for Wimbledon.

Fantastic performance from Ivanovic against Kuznetsova Lost her way a little bit in the 2nd set, but in the 1st and the 3rd she blew Kuznetsova away.

Meanwhile, I'm learning a lesson in why to stay away from betting on doubles (doubles in terms of tennis, not in terms of betting), as Chan and Chuang are 6-3 3-0 down

[Wittmann 44]

I don't know, but there are always quite a few rumours about Davydenko and strange patterns in his matches,

I've serious questions about him at some of the lower ranked events as well. There have been rumours about him and some dodgy betting circulating for a while in the tennis world. I can't see it as an issue here. The French Open is simply too big and worth so much to the winner in terms of both money and prestige.

I think Canas will win this. He makes far fewer errors than Davydenko who is always trying to force the game. Look at who has beaten Canas in Roland Garros in his last three starts - Puerta (Finalist that year), Gaudio and Costas (winners the year they beat him).

Goingto 5 sets here is a strong possibility in my view - 8 of Canas's 20 appearances have gone to 5 and Davydenko will surely do enough to hang around.

Great performance by Ivanovic - watched it in streaming alongside the Vaidisova game. Kuzentsova was the architect of her own downfall to a certain extent howerver. Vaidisova should have taken it to a third set. Served well and had lots of chances but folded when the pressure was applied. So sorry I didn't take Jankovic when she was 20s a month or two ago.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Good call on Ivanovic

Followed on here and have just laid Henin @ 1.22 and Sharapova @ 1.11. Hoping to trade at some point. Sharapova already at 1.20 but hoping for 1.50+

[Wittmann 44]

1.25 Unit Vaidisova @ 3.55 -1.25 Units
0.75 Units Jankovic 2-1 @ 4.2 -0.75 Units
1 Unit Ivanovic @ 2.74 +1.65 Units
0.5 Units Kuznestova @ 4.1 -0.5 Units
2 Units Sharapova @ 1.50 +0.95 Units

Today - Staked 5.50 Units Profit +0.10 Units
To date - Staked 30.25 Units Profit +3.35 Units

Small profit on the day, marred again by poor staking. Bit unfortunate that Vaidisova wasn’t able to take the game to a third set. Played well but faltered on the big points. I’ll be opposing Sharapova next round I think. Very hard to see beyond another Henin win here.

[Wittmann 44]

Down to the second set of men’s quarters tomorrow.

Moya-Nadal

Nadal in a match up against fellow Majorcan and mentor Carlos Moya. Not much to say really. I can’t be the only one who is finding the Federer-Nadal axis making for some very boring games. Nadal might go easy on his good friend here which is realistically the only way Moya will nick a set. A complete turn off in betting terms for me.

Andreev-Djokovic
This looks a very tasty tie. I had Andreev down as making the quarters but I’m still slightly surprised he has. He has had a relatively straight forward passage to my mind – Roddick is not a clay courter and neither is Baghdatis who he fairly easily beat in the last round. The toughest game was probably the rain interrupted game against Chilean clay court specialist Massu but even that never looked like being anything other than a minor speedbump. Djokovic has stuttered here – unheralded Frenchman Patience took him to 5 sets and he dropped a set to French qualifier Recouderec in the second round. My own reading is that he has played too much tennis recently and that he might be running out of steam. He let Verdasco blow himself out in the last 16 without having to exert himself too much but Andreev has some mental toughness that will make this tie a lot less straightforward. They met in Portugal in a clay match that Djokovic won on a 3rd set tiebreak. It could easily be as close again. I would like to recommend Andreev but I just can’t despite my misgivings over Djokovic. The Russian has had 9 clay losses this season – besides the reasonable ones to Nadal and Djokovic he has lost to Grosjean. Volandri and Ferrero in Europe and some lesser lights in South America. Andreev is probably in better physical shape but the young Serb is the classier player and he gets my slightly reluctant support. I would get on sooner rather than later as I can only see his price contracting


2 Units Djokovic @ 1.63

[engineer]

Yesterday I made some profit from French Open at last, and today I'm going with Andreev to win this one. BET365 offers a decent price - 2.50, till the beginning it could increase even more.
It won't be easy for the Serbian today, Andreev is not Verdasko or Recouderc... I really don't like backing Russians playing on clay, but yesterday Davydenko disproved me, and I rate Igor as a better claycourter. I'm going with the value one more time:

Andreev - 2.50
Novak to win 3:2 - ~6.50 to cover it

[rcgills]

And yet again, a nice winner for me cancelled out by several losers

Men
Staked: 48.6pts
Returned: 34.43pts
P/L: -14.17pts

Women
Staked: 28.4pts
Returned: 31.21pts
P/L: +2.81pts

Overall: -11.36pts

I think that may well be it for me in this tournament. I generally tend to do better (not that you'd know it going on the above ) in the earlier rounds, by the time you get to this stage of the tournaments the bookies seem to have things pretty much spot on, not many chances of a surprise, and generally not much of interest from a betting point of view.

Certainly nothing that interests me today anyway in the men's QF. Maybe tomorrow in the women's SF, will have to see.

Good luck to everyone today anyway.

[rcgills]

OK, tempted back in Have taken a little bit on Andreev @ 6.4 when a set down and a break down in the 2nd (just pulled back to 2-3). Still think he can run Djokovic close, and Djokovic has made hard work of some of his games this tournament. Will look to lay this one back later if Andreev gets back into the game.

Andreev to beat Djokovic @ 6.4 1.5pts

[jackynwa]

Poor staking, Djokovic is a class above.

[engineer]

Yeah, too strong Djokovic...

[jackynwa]

And thats game set and the match Djokovic, 6-3 6-3 6-3.

[rcgills]

That's as may be, Jacky, but Djokovic is several classes above Patience and Recouderc, and he struggled against both of them. I'd have expected Andreev to at least take a set of Djokovic, and if he'd managed it I dare say that price would've come down. Wasn't to be on this occasion, but given the chance again, I'd take the same bet again.

[Wittmann 44]

Djokovic wins but Andreev was terrible. Think the occasion got to him. I noticed last night that while Andreev has an excellent recent record against top 25 players it has usually been at the earlier rounds. He has only once beaten a player ranked below 20 at a QF or higher stage – that’s a total of 29 games and the sole victory bizarrely enough against Nadal in Valencia over 2 years ago. Should have been a bigger stake in retrospect but has my three biggest stakes this event have all lost I was nervous.

2 Units Djokovic +1.20 Units

Ladies SFs tomorrow and two cracking matchs in store

Henin-Jankovic

The current best retriever in the game (on clay anyway) takes on the best clay player of the last 10 years. Henin swatted aside Serena Williams in the last 8 while Jankovic played it patient and allowed Vaidisova to make the running and rack up the errors in her QF. This will be close – all 5 meetings have gone to 3 sets including the 3 this year and the 3 that have been on clay. Henin has won them all despite interestingly enough going a set behind in 4 of the 5 games. One reason has been that Jankovic’s serving has not been consistent and her second serve is weak. She will defend and run along the baseline all day but she’ll need Henin to make errors.

Mental strength will be the key here and Henin has a large edge – she has won 7 of the last 8 Grand Slams she has contested including beating Jankovic in the US Open last September. She has only lost 1 of her last 8 clay SFs on European clay and that was when she had to play 2 games in a day against Kuznetsova. Jankovic has faltered against the very best to date – she is W1 L5 against Mauresmo, W0 L3 against Sharapova , W0 L6 against the recently retired Klisters. Jankovic has been competitive but no more against the best and Henin on clay is the best of the best.

Having said all that above can Henin be value at 1.44? I would think that it is about right. I would also think that Jankovic is talented and gutsy enough to make this akward. A 3 setter beckons here and if Jankovic is to win this I can’t see it being easy so the play is for the game to go the distance.

0.75 Units Henin 2-1 @ 4
0.50 Units Jankovic 2-1 @ 6.4

Ivanovic-Sharapova

Ivanovic made me very happy by beating Kuznestova in a game that was easier for her than the 3 set scoreline might indicate. In her first Grand Slam SF she gets to meet Sharapova on her least favourite surface and with the Russian girl carrying a dodgy shoulder. It is a measure of Sharapova’s discomfort on clay that of her 41 career SFs only 2 are on clay and she has lost both those. Sharapova has the ultimate power game suited to faster surfaces. The clay is definitely playing faster now has the top layer of clay has been blown away and the weather has gotten hotter the ball is travelling faster but I still think it will be too slow for her. Ivanovic is definitely better on this surface – she is W5 L2 against the top 10 on clay including wins over Kuznstova (2) Mauresmo and Jankovic. The issue here is she ready to beat one of the most competitive players on the tour – Sharapova chases everything , never gives up and has been at this Grand Slam stage before. Its first time for Ivanovic and if she starts slow here Sharapova might not let her back in. I’ve thought about this one for a while and if I was smart this would be one to swerve. It will however be my last bet on the ladies this Roland Garros and I will plump for Ivanovic’s superior surface abilities to tell.

1.25 Unit Ivanovic @ 2.20