French Open - 3rd Round On Selections Here

[igor5]

I was reading some previews......

Until now, last year’s U.S. Open was the only time Jankovic made it past the fourth round of a grand slam.

Compare that to Henin, who has five grand slam titles – three in the past four years at Roland Garros – and needs only to win Wimbledon to complete the career grand slam.

What’s more is Henin has bumped into Jankovic recently. She now holds a 5-0 record against her in their career meetings. Henin beat Jankovic in the semis at Warsaw and again in the quarters at Berlin in her two lead-up tournaments to the French Open. Both matches took three sets, but both were also on clay.
What is interesting about the series between these two is that all five meetings have needed three sets to decide.

I like Henin too and that price is probable fair but i would go also with the H2H and I’m going to follow you Wittmann on Henin 2-1

I have Davydenko@34 from the start but i think tomorrow FedEx going to deliver in 3 sets he shouldn`t have any problems against the Russian......

[edtkh]

A couple of pretty straightforward games in the women's semis IMO...

[b]20pts Henin-Sharapova -1.5 Games (2.50 @ Ladbrokes)

I personally find it a shame the way the top seeds were seperated in the women's draw this year as there's little doubt the 4 emerging from the Henin and Jankovic (the other two being Serena Williams and Vaidisova) half would have more than given the other 4 (Sharapova, Ivanovic, Kuznetsova, Chakvetadze) a run for their money. In all, that just makes for what looks set to be a less-than-eagerly-anticipated final on Saturday.

Nevertheless, on to the semis itself. I said before the quarters I strongly fancy the victor of the Serena Williams-Henin clash to go all the way and I just can't see past Henin for the win here. No disrespect to Jankovic, who has had an awesome run en route to the last 4, but it's hard to make a case for her seriously testing what's arguably the finest claycourt specialist of her generation. Incidentally, even though Jankovic has never lost to Henin in straight sets in her last 5 meetings, it's worth noting Henin has won them all. It's all pretty straightforward for me.

I think Ladbrokes are a little silly to be pricing up Sharapova -1.5 games at 1.83 for this clash - there's definitely massive value on this over the 1.66 for Sharapova to win the match. Let's face it, what odds Sharapova wouldn't clear a -1.5 game handicap if she should prevail? That said, I'm backing Sharapova for this simply on the basis of experience - being totally honest, experience at this level is of paramount importance in the women's game where a vast majority are overwhelmed by such massive occasions (Dementieva's totally pathetic performance against Myskina in the 2004 final is a fine testament ). In essence, there's very little seperating the pair as neither is particularly adept on clay with both sharing a similar style of play. That said, Sharapova's experience and mental toughness should see her through.


Cheers & Good Luck!


Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 115.40 pts
Profit/Loss : 15.40 pts


PS : Kiko, thanks for sorting out the problem with the bold function the other day - would need you to sort this one out again once more...

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Done

Just give me a shout when you need to go to the toilet and need your arse wiped

Great stuff again guys and goo luck

[Wittmann 44]

In the men's doubles tomorrow veteran pairing of Knowles and Nestor look value to see of Bhupati and Stepanek. K & N have been a doubles pairing since 2003 and have racked up 20 titles in that time including 7 on clay. They've a sole Slam in the US to their names but with the top two seedings of Bjokrmann/Mirnyi and the Bryan twins out they will never get a better chance to win at Roland Garros - prior to this they were W4 L15 against the Bryans. En route to the semis they have yet to drop a set although the only real tests were against Pavel/Waske in the 3rd and Kohlmann/Schuettler in the QF. They have plenty of Slam experience although I would think that clay is their weakest surface.

Their opponents are a fairly recent pairing although Bhupathi has a long and excellent Slam tradition in double and Stepanek has had some lesser doubles successs - Bhuptahi has 4 Slams to his name (2 at RG) althogh the last was back in 2002. He started playing with Stepanek in mid 2006 but they haven't really hit the heights together - they are W19 L12 and are W12 L6 on clay. They scored a mjaor upset over Bjorkman/Miryni in the last round but Bjorkman had to play the doubles aftre being demolished by Moya theprevious day and he had a heavy singles schedule prior to that which devalues the 3 set victory of B & S in my mind. A more telling stat for me is that against the top 5 pairings (Bryans, Bjormkan/Miryni, Damm & Paes etc) the are W2 L5. This is only their 3rd semi together and easily the biggest. Stepanek has been in wretched singles form and I think the occasion might be too much for him tomorrow as he has only played RG doubles twice and this is his first doubles SF appearance at a slam in 10 efforts.

Experience to tell here

2 Units Knowles & Nestor @ 1.62 **

** This is current Betfair price but it might raise somewhat so hold off until tomorrow morning if interested.

[rcgills]

PARIS, France – Three of the four semifinalists at Roland Garros will be venturing into uncharted territory when they step onto Court Philippe Chatrier on Thursday afternoon, but with a place in the final of the year's second Grand Slam up for grabs, the crowds are sure to be treated to two encounters of the very highest quality.

(1) Justine Henin (BEL) vs. (4) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) - Henin leads, 5-0

Jankovic, the No.4 seed, enters her clash against reigning champion Henin with the daunting prospect of having to overcome a player she has never defeated in five previous meetings. In the Serbian's only other Grand Slam semifinal appearance she also ran into the elegant Belgian and on Thursday she will be hoping to reverse the three-set defeat she suffered at Flushing Meadows last September. In fact, all five of the pair's meetings have gone to three sets, the two most recent of these taking place at last month's clay court events in Warsaw and Berlin. On both occasions Henin was pushed all the way before edging tight final sets, but after the dominant display Jankovic gave in ousting Nicole Vaidisova in the quarterfinals on Tuesday, she will fully believe it will be sixth time lucky out on Philippe Chatrier.

Henin was no less impressive during her quarterfinal victory over former champion Serena Williams, a display signaling to the rest of the draw just how difficult it will be to wrestle the Roland Garros crown from her. The straight-set win over a player viewed by many as the biggest obstacle between the 25-year-old and her third straight title, was the world No.1's 19th straight triumph in Paris and her 27th of the season. Jankovic and Henin have been arguably the two most consistent players on the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour this season, racking up an impressive six tournament victories between them and if their semifinal clash is anything like their previous meetings, it could well be one of the best matches of the fortnight.

"She doesn't make a lot of errors and she also hits with a lot of pace and she fights so hard," Henin said on playing Jankovic, "she also is really good mentally. I mean, she's always upbeat and she doesn't let the pressure affect her. I believe that if I'm able to organize a good tactical game plan and execute it to the best of my abilities then I'm very confident I can win. It will definitely be a tricky match though and I will have to be very consistent if I want to win the match. I think the player who will be the most consistent will be the one who wins the match."

"I'm confident and I will try to do my best against Justine," Jankovic stated, "and although I've never beaten her before, I will try to find a way to win somehow. I feel if I base my tactical game plan around her then I think I can do it. For me it's just a matter of staying concentrated and being mentally tough throughout, because I feel that I'm really physically very fit and I feel like I've been moving so well on the clay."


(2) Maria Sharapova (RUS) vs. (7) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) - Series tied, 1-1

The semifinal in the bottom half of the draw will see two of the Tour's brightest young stars pitted against one another for a place in the year's second Grand Slam final. Sharapova and Ivanovic will both be appearing in their first semifinal in Paris and with a place in Saturday's championship round tantalizingly close, the stakes could not be higher. Ivanovic has had a wonderful first half of the season, rising to a career high world ranking of No.7 as well as capturing her second Tier I title at the prestigious clay court event in Rome. The 19-year-old Serbian has performed well at Roland Garros in the past, making it all the way to the quarterfinals two years ago, before eventually falling to Nadia Petrova in straight sets. On Tuesday Ivanovic met another Russian in the form of Svetlana Kuznetsova and despite a second set blip, the No.7 seed triumphed in three seesaw sets to reach her maiden Grand Slam semifinal.

After troublesome shoulder and hamstring injuries Sharapova participated in only one warm-up event prior to Roland Garros and despite making a slow start to the tournament the world No.2 has got better and better as she has progressed through the draw. The 20-year-old Russian star eased through her opening round encounters and did not face a significant test until her fourth round clash with Patty Schnyder. This match saw the No.2 seed demonstrate just why she is one of the Tour's most feared competitors, fending off two match points in the final set before winning an epic encounter, 36 64 97. However, this remains the only set the Russian has dropped and if she can repeat the commanding quarterfinal performance she gave to defeat compatriot Anna Chakvetadze, she has every chance of making the final of her fourth major.

"I really think Ivanovic plays pretty similar to Chakvetadze," Sharapova stated, "and she hits the ball pretty hard and flat. She's had some good success this clay court season and done really well in some tournaments, so it will definitely be a very tough match and one I'm looking forward to. Last year I played a good match against her in Austria and although unfortunately I couldn't complete the match with her this year, I'm looking forward to my first semifinal here."

From the official WTA site http://www.sonyericssonwtatour.com/1...ContentID=1416

[rcgills]

Men
Staked: 50.1pts
Returned: 34.43pts
P/L: -15.67pts

Women
Staked: 28.4pts
Returned: 31.21pts
P/L: +2.81pts

Overall: -12.86pts

Not having a good tournament here, but I'm still in profit on the women's event, hopefully that can continue today.

May be worth considering the handicap betting on Jankovic v Henin. Sporting Odds have Jankovic -3.5 games @ 1.833. Of their previous 5 meetings, Henin has beaten that handicap twice, but both times were on hard courts. Of their 3 meetings on clay, Henin won by 3 games in Charleston 2005, by one game in Berlin this year, and it would've been a handicap tie in Warsaw this year. Not sure on that one yet though, going to think on it for a while.

The one bet I have already taken is Ivanovic to beat Sharapova. I think the most important stat here is Wittmann's:

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

It is a measure of Sharapova’s discomfort on clay that of her 41 career SFs only 2 are on clay and she has lost both those

Ivanovic seems much more comfortable on clay, and already has the Berlin title under her belt this year on clay. Was very impressed with the way she saw off Kuznetsova in the last round, and I reckon she can see off Sharapova today too.

Ivanovic tb Sharapova @ 2.1 3pts

[Wittmann 44]

Sporting Odds have Jankovic -3.5 games @ 1.833.

Great spot. I've had 1.25 points on that. Can't see Henin running away with this.

[rcgills]

Just realised, obviously that should have said Jankovic "+" 3.5 games, not "-"

[engineer]

I took Ivanovich +1.5 sets at 1.833 (Sportingodds). If Sharapova wins that game it'll be very hard for her and she'll have to fight for each point. Ivanovich should be able to win one set at least (it won't be a surprice if she wins 2:0).

The other game I wouldn't get involved in. IMO, if anyone can beat Henin, it's Jankovic, exactly. Dunno...

[rcgills]

Think you're getting mixed up there, Engineer. Sporting Odds have Ivanovic +1.5 games @ 1.833, not +1.5 sets.

[engineer]

You are right RC, I liked so much the look of that bet, that I got blind.
Anyway, it's placed and it could be nice if Ivanovic wins a set kinda 6:2 or 6:3

Next time I'll put my glasses on :gett1n

[Wittmann 44]

There’s a potentially very good value bet on the first set market tomorrow in the Federer – Davydenko match up with Stan James.

There is what amounts to a correct score bet on the total games.
Amongst other options you can back Federer to win 6-4 or to win 6-3 (both at 6/1). These look a decent price to me. The options assume a single net break of serve in favour of Federer with either him serving first (6-3) or Davy serving first (6-4). If either option comes off it is a combined payout of 5/2.

The stats make this look a reasonably inviting bet:

Davydenko – Federer have played 22 sets – 10 have finished with the score above;

Of the 8 games they have played 6 have had the first set score as either 6-3 or 6-4;

Federer is a career 104 sets at Roland Garros- 50 have finished with a single net set break;

0.5 Units 1st set Federer 6-4 @ 6/1
0.5 Units 1st set Federer 6-3 @ 6/1

[Wittmann 44]

I've taken Jankovic with +3.5 games . I assumed that was what you had meant anyway RC. Think its a bit of value.

[engineer]

What a win for Ivanovic.
C'mon for a serb final

[edtkh]

Absolutely mind-boggling. I'm not even sure if it was Sharapova who actually turned up - that said, if you're only going to hold serve twice in 7 service games, you hardly deserve anything...

Great call for those on Ivanovic.