French Open - 3rd Round On Selections Here

[rcgills]

It's true that Sharapova was poor there, far too many unforced errors and double faults, but credit to Ivanovic, I thought she was superb. Twice in that match Ed's comments about mental strength went through my mind. First time was when Ivanovic was broken when serving for the first set at 5-1, and she responded by breaking Sharapova to 15 in the next game. The second time was when she was 0-30 down on her serve when 2-0 up in the 2nd set. She promptly went and served an ace, then 3 perfectly played points to hold to 30.

Whoever wins the other semi, it should be a great final.

I'm going to go along with that bet on Jankovic +3.5 games, I think.

Jankovic +3.5 games v Henin @ 1.833 - 2pts

Have also just taken a little bit on Ivanovic to win the tournament @ 3.9. Jankovic is currently 3.55 on Betfair to beat Henin, and after the way Ivanovic has played in the QF and SF, I wouldn't expect her to be much longer a price than that if she plays Henin the final, unless Henin absolutely destroys Jankovic. If Jankovic makes the final, Ivanovic will be nowhere near 3.9 for the final.

Ivanovic to win tournament @ 3.9 1.5pts

[Wittmann 44]

Terrible performance by Sharapova – worst I can remember seeing from her. Ivanovic was solid and didn’t let the occasion get to her. Don’t care for Sharapova much so very happy to see Ivanovic make the final.

I definitely think she’s not 100% health wise. She might have forced herself too hard here as well to be 100% competitive at Wimbeldon. I’ll be looking for a dark horse like Vaidisova for Wimbeldon glory this year.

[rcgills]

Has to be said Jankovic is looking nervy here. Not looking good for the +3.5 games bet at the moment

[Wittmann 44]

She's getting gubbed here

Straight sets Henin here

[Wittmann 44]

Jankovic

That was fairly disappointing.

Started with two winners with Ivanovic and Nestor/Knowles winning in straight sets but Henin then proceeded to take lumps out of Ivanovic. I compounded the earlier 2 losing bets on Jankovic by adding a third loser. Very nasty all round. A profit of 0.10 on the day .

Mental strength the key here. As soon as Jankovic won the 5th game of the second set against serve I knew instantly she would then follow up by failing to hold serve – the difference between being good like she is and being great like the Belgian gnome is.

Am heading back towards a profit with the men and down towards a loss with the Ladies. Looks like a small loss / small profit at the end the way things are going.

Ivanovic 1.25 Units @ 2.2 +1.43 Units
Henin 2-1 0.75 Units @ 4 -0.75 Units
Jankovic 2-1 0.50 Units @ 6.4 -0.50 Units
Jankovic +3.5 Games @ 1.83 -1.25 Units

Staked today 3.75 Units
Loss today -1.08 Units
Staked Event 34 Units.
Profit Event +2.28 Units

Knowles/Nestor 2 Units @ 1.62 +1.18 Units

Staked today 2.00 Units
Profit today +1.18 Units
Staked Event 38.25 Units
Loss Event -2.24 Units

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Yeah both semi's were very disappointing as i expected two great matches but they were both as one sided as you could get.

Was Henin that good or Jankovic that poor?

Sharapova must have played her worst for aslong as i can remember. So many errors in her game there.

Hopefully the men will be more exciting

[rcgills]

Men
Staked: 50.1pts
Returned: 34.43pts
P/L: -15.67pts

Women
Staked: 33.4pts
Returned: 37.51pts
P/L: +4.11pts

Overall: -11.56pts
Well, it's looking like I'll finish in profit for the women's event, even allowing for that Ivanovic bet (the odds on that didn't go the way I've predicted, presumably due in part to Henin thrashing Jankovic rather than just beating her).

Kiko, I'd say Henin played well, but she never really had to step out of first gear, Jankovic made far too many errors and never really managed to get herself into the game.

I'm still hopeful though that Ivanovic might actually give Henin a run for her money in the final. Not sure though whether I may be afflicted slightly by the Beanie syndrome there though in wanting the good looking players to do well :wasntme

For tomorrow, not sure there's much of interest for me. Davydenko yet another player that seems to have a psychological barrier when it comes to playing Federer - 8-0 Federer on H2H, and 18-4 on sets. Can't see him beating Federer here, but handicap bets on Federer are dangerous, as I found out in the last round when Robredo took a set off him 6-1.

May possibly be interested in some kind of handicap or games betting option for Nadal to beat Djokovic, but will wait and see tomorrow.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Im considering laying both Fed and Nadal winning 3-0.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

I dont really think Fed or Nadal have played as good as they could so far and have had a relatively easy route through.

I know H2H doesnt favour Davydenko but i rate him as a better chance to get a set due to the form he is in right now.

Any thoughts welcomed

[Wittmann 44]

Im considering laying both Fed and Nadal winning 3-0.

I don’t see Djokovic getting anything from Nadal. I think he’s been pretty average to date to be honest. This is a grudge match of sorts for Nadal after Djokovic making all sorts of wild claims about how much better he played than Nadal when retiring 2 sets down at Roland Garros last year. I expect Nadal to pound on him from the off.

Think Fed might drop a set against Davydenko – the H to H makes horrible reading but Davyenko had a poor record against both Canas and Nalbandian as well and he managed to come through both those in good style. He makes a ton of ue’s but he will play on the front foot the whole time which in my view is the only way to get any joy from Federer. Davydenko had two set points in Australia 2 years ago to go two – one up so he has been able to put Fed under pressure in the past. I also think mentally he is probably the strongest player that Fed has played to date. I’m committed on this match on a first set correct score but if I wasn’t I’d be laying the 3-0 Fed score.

[rcgills]

Despite what I said earlier in the week about leaving this alone from now, I could yet be tempted back. I'd go along with Wittmann on both of those, I'd say. I'd be surprised to see Nadal drop a set against Djokovic - they've met twice on clay, and Nadal has won all 4 sets played. Nadal has also won all his matches here in straight sets. As Wittmann mentions, it's also a bit of a grudge match, and Nadal's already put Djokovic well and truly in his place earlier this year in Rome with a 6-2 6-3 on clay. Am torn between 3 possible bets on this one: Nadal (-7) @ 1.833, Nadal 3-0 @ 1.87, or under 33.5 games @ 1.833

For Federer against Davydenko, I'm not sure whether Davydenko can get a set here, but I'd expect him to make them close fought sets. On that basis, I could be interested in the over 34.5 games @ 1.833. If it goes to 4 sets, the bet is pretty likely to come in, and even in 3 sets, something like a 7-6 7-5 6-4 would do it.

Will think on them for a while though, still a couple of hours until the start.

[derlis]

FEDERER, Roger --- DAVYDENKO, Nikolay 94.37 % 5.63 %
DJOKOVIC, Novak --- NADAL, Rafael 12.97 % 87.03 %

[bulit]

I have Nadal and Federer with -1 handicap in my local.
Nadal -1 @1.34
Federer -1 @1.4
Something's wrong with them but I must take that. Thats like gift.
Maybe the reason is because here in Serbia,after great match yesterday of Ivanovic all beleive that Djokovic can win against Nadal. Idiots

Welcome on TDP derlis

[rcgills]

Federer v Davydenko over 35.5 games (Sporting Odds have shifted it up by 1 game since this morning ) @ 1.833 2pts

[Wittmann 44]

Have taken Nadal to win 3-0

1.75 Units @ 1.88 (Betfair)

[Wittmann 44]

Very very early doors but Federer looks very out of sorts.