Tennis 11-18/6/2007 (ATP Halle & Queens, WTA Birmingham & Barcelona Clay)

[rcgills]

Cheers Wittmann. I'm starting to feel dizzy, I'm going to actually break into profit for the week on a tennis thread Looks like Youzhny will beat Stadler, but if Szavay can see off Schiavone it'll round off a very nice day.

How did Salierni get on, do you know? She was on my shortlist this morning, although I ended up deciding against it, can't remember why now.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Top stuff guys

[rcgills]

And Szavay thrashes Schiavone 6-1 6-1

Mens:

Staked: 12.9pts
Returned: 13.47pts
Profit/Loss: +0.57pts

Womens:

Staked: 6.5pts
Returned: 11.89pts
Profit/Loss: +5.39pts

Overall P/L: +5.96pts

[Wittmann 44]

Great stuff today RC Gills. Should have opposed Schiavone as well. I missed the time on Betfair.

++++++++++++++++




Terrible day for me on the women’s front with 4 from 5 losing

Mirza l ost – 3 set points blown when serving for the game – lost the tiebreak


Sugiyma lost – Up a break in the decider and then lost 5 games on the bounce


Tu – Up a break in the second set, squandered it and lost the tiebreak

Biggest stake of the day on Kerber won but other than that little to cheer about on the WTA.

2 Units Tu anyprice over 1.80 -2 Units
1.25 Units Mirza @ 2.34 -1.25 Units
2.25 Units Kerber @ 1.76 +1.62 Units
2 Units Sugiyma @ 1.52 -2 Units
1 Unit Salierni to beat Kanepi @ 2.92 -1 Unit

Today Staked 8.50 Units
Today Loss -4.63 Units

Event Staked 10.00 Units
Event Loss -6.13 Units


Much better on the men’s fronts with some big prices coming in.Great efforts by both Kendrick and Baker but neither had the class to win their respective games. Not complaining as made a nice bit on both their games. Backed Djokovic at the end of the first set for a tidy profit there. Baker could and should have won – had more chances but his nerve obviously failed him. Bogdanovic not a player to trust as a strong favourite.

Llodra does my least favourite thing and retires after losing the first set. Unfortunately with BF stakes in play if first set completed. Monfils loses when serving for the set .
Mahut brings in a big priced winner with nice stakes at nearly 3/1 – very sweaty game indeed but he wins after a lot of effort.

Lay Djokovic @ 1.15 (0.5 units risked) -0.5 Units
Djokovic 2-1 @ 4.5 (0.25 Units Risked) +0.83 Units
Lay Bjorkman @ 1.53 (1.75 Units Risked) +3.13 Units
1.5 Units Llodra @ 1.66 -1.50 Units
2 Units Tursonov @ 1.44 +0.84 Units
1.50 Units (i/r) Djokovic @ 2.02 +1.45 Units
MOnfils in running at 2.3 (0.75 Unit) -0.75 Units
Lay Bogandovich @ 1.29 (0.5 Units Risked) -0.5 Units
0.5 Units Bogdanovich 2-1 @ 4.7 +1.76 Units
Lay Kohlsreiber @ 1.31 (0.5 Units Risked) -0.5 Units
0.5 Units Kohlsreiber 2-1 @ 4.5 -0.5 Units

Today Staked 10.25 Units
Today Profit +3.75 Units

Event Staked 38.25 Units
Event Loss -1.39 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Lots of tomororws games priced with very heavy favourites. Some brief thoughts:

Halle

Mayer-Davydenko

Melzer had his chances against Davedenko who won in 3 but did not take them. Melzer subsequently pulling from the doubles with a wrist injury makes the win of Devydenko slightly suspect. Mayer withstood a mini barrage of aces from Kohlmann to win in 2. Davydenko didn’t become a world beater on grass overnight and Mayer is a tricky player.

Lay Davydenko @ 1.77 (1.25 Units Risked)

London

Ginepri-Gonzalez

Ginepri looks a bit too long here. Gonzalez stuttered through a 3 setter with Tipsarevic blasting down nearly 20 aces but Ginepri was impressive against Serra on the big points and might have some momentum. I think he can at least nick a set of the big serving Chilean who tends to make a lot of ues with his aggressive style. 1 – 1 in the H to H.

Lay Gonzalez (1 Unit) @ 5.4
Gonzalez 2-1 0.5 Units @ any price over 4.1

Mahut – Ljubcic

Mahut created lots of opportunities and shot 13 aces against Bjorkman but had difficulty converting his many break points. He has won one ATP match against Lj in 2007 which he won 6-4, 6-4 at odds of nearly 9/1 and I think he’s worth a shout again today. Ljubcic is awkward moving on grass and he doesn’t like the classic s & v types as defeats to the likes of Bjorkman, Miryni and Clement show.

1 Unit Mahut @ 3.30

I’m debating laying Tsonga against Cilic. Their two 2007 meetings have been very close, he has played a lot of tennis and might suffer a reaction after the win against Hewitt. Cilic shows the win against Henman no fluke with a fine follow up against the useful Falla. Will wait to see Tsonga’s price drop.

[Wittmann 44]

In Barcelona

Pennetta-Loit

Loit made liitle of quotes of 2.80 when beating Pennetta on clay back in February. Just as that price looked wrong then making her a big odds on favourite looks wrong now – Pennetta is in a bad slump but she has an amazing record on QF on clay (W19 L4) and has won 14 of her last 15 going back to 2004. The lady rises to the occasion quite plainly. Loit is a sold top 50 clay courter but her form is only marginally better than the Italians this year and she has lost 8 of her last 10 QF on clay.

1 Unit Pennetta @ anyprice over 2.5

In Birmingham

Waiting for prices to harden but will be looking to back Kerber, King and Danildou when prices firm at heavy odds against. Matches look tighter than the quotes would suggest.

[rcgills]

Mayer to beat Davydenko @ 2.34 2pts

Nothing to add on this one that's not been said either by Wittmann today or myself when I opposed Davydenko in the previous round.

Becker to beat Gicquel @ 1.72 2pts

Becker a very solid grass court player, 10-3 for his career, and playing in his home country. Gicquel had a decent win over Nalbandian in the last round, but I'd still rate Becker's chances of taking this one without too many problems.

Lay Kanepi v Gallovits @ 2.04 3pts

I've gone with Gallovits in each of the last 2 rounds, and can't see any reason here why I shouldn't do so again. Her 2 wins here have taken her to 31-12 for the year, and 22-5 on clay. Kanepi meanwhile is 12-13 for the year, and 5-6 on clay. To be fair, 3 of those defeats were to top 20 players, but there were also a couple to players ranked lower than her. With Gallovits' recent form, I'd make her a much clearer favourite than those marginal odds would suggest.

May also be interested in Szavay to beat Shaughnessy, and in Nadal v Mirnyi going to 3 sets, but I'm going to wait a while on those, let the prices settle a little bit.

[rcgills]

Was trying to lay Shaughnessy at 1.83 for a liability of 2pts. Managed to get 1.3pts matched, but the price has now started climbing (currently 2.04) and so I don't fancy my chances of getting the rest matched. Happy enough with that though, seeing as it's looking like Szavay will be starting as favourite. Reasoning pretty much the same as yesterday really, Szavay a decent clay court player and having a good season so far. Shaughnessy, prior to this tournament, was 7-14 for the year, and 6-7 on clay.

Lay Shaughnessy v Szavay @ 1.83, liability 1.3pts

[Wittmann 44]

1 Unit Each

Danildou to beat Hantchova @ 3.45
Lay Bartoli vs Kerber @ 1.44
Lay Bondarenko vs King @ 1.45

Danildous best surface is grass and the h to h is 2-2. Kerber beat Bartoli (back in 03 admittedly) but is in great form and demolished Rolle. Ditto with King. Very mobile and has a steady serve. Bondarenko as had injury issues.

Have added 1.5 Points on Becker to beat Gicquel at 1.71. Same logic as RC

[DAO]

hello
what do u think about santangelo?
i think it's good choice after Vakulenko's not so good play yesturday

[rcgills]

I've got to be honest, DAO, I don't really know all that much about either player's ability on grass, and so I can't really help you out much there I'm afraid. Good luck if you go with Santangelo though

One more bet for me:

Nadal v Mirnyi over 23.5 games @ 2.7 1.5pts

Seems quite a big price to me. Didn't see his 2nd round game, but Mirnyi's serve was looking pretty ominous against Verdasco in the first round, and I'd fancy his chances of nicking a set here. Even a 7-6 7-5 would do for the purposes of this bet though

[Wittmann 44]

Hi Doa

Santangelo saved 3 match points against MKirza yesterday and won despite the Indian girl serving 15 aces so she had a fairly decent game based on the stats alone. She plays with a lot of spin and slice so has a nice style for grass – she made QF here last year and beat Sugiyama. Vakulenko pulled twice from events in May with wrist problems and I don’t think she is 100%. Problem is that Santangelos price has gone quite low now – down to 1.62 and it’s a bit skinny. I think she’ll win this but I’d personally want better odds.

[prinze]

RC, Wittman have to join you both on the bandwagon against Davy.
Davy looks somehow not at ease on the fast grass surface. His game against Melzer showed it and as Wittman put it the injury Melzer cited for withdrawing from the doubles says it all. Another positive point I would cite for Mayer is Davy seems to be having trouble after being hit by the ball in the eye in the first round. Although I don't rate him high Mayer at 11-6 on the grass looks a bet worth a few quids.

[jackynwa]

Baghdatis wins
Thats 6 in 6 this week!

[jackynwa]

Nadal, R -4.5 games 10/11

Nadal will run away with this. A very reliable source in the tennis game has informed me Mirnyi is feeling under the weather mentally and physically. Despite a few wins he had a fall in practise and needed medical attention. Although he is unlikely to have strapping today as he is keen not to give Nadal any inkling that he is under the weather.