Tennis 11-18/6/2007 (ATP Halle & Queens, WTA Birmingham & Barcelona Clay)

[bulit]

Monday, June 11, 2007

ATP - Halle (GER), Grasscourt, World

12:00 PM Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) 1.15 Gilles Simon (FRA) 4.14

12:00 PM Robin Soderling (SWE) 1.08 Stefan Koubek (AUT) 5.40

1:15 PM Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) 1.14 Michael Russell (USA) 4.27

3:30 PM Tomas Berdych (CZE) 1.09 Nicolas Kiefer (GER) 5.14

4:45 PM James Blake (USA) 1.10 Sam Querrey (USA) 4.92


ATP - London Queen's Club (GBR) - Grass, World

1:30 PM Alexander Peya (AUT) 1.25 Jamie Baker (GBR) 3.21

1:30 PM Arnaud Clement (FRA) 1.25 Ivan Navarro Pastor 3.21

1:30 PM Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 1.76 Max Mirnyi (BLR) 1.84

2:45 PM Hyung-Taik Lee (KOR) 1.46 Alex Bogdanovic (GBR) 2.35

2:45 PM Julien Benneteau (FRA) 1.60 Alejandro Falla (COL) 2.05

2:45 PM Oscar Hernandez (ESP) 4.01 Danai Udomchoke (THA) 1.16

2:45 PM Radek Stepanek (CZE) 1.09 Davide Sanguinetti 5.14

4:00 PM Andreas Seppi (ITA) 2.97 Chris Guccione (AUS) 1.29

4:00 PM Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) 2.10 Feliciano Lopez 1.57

5:15 PM Jonas Bjorkman (SWE) 1.20 Justin Gimelstob (USA) 3.60

5:15 PM Michael Llodra (FRA) 1.09 Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) 5.14

5:15 PM Thomas Johansson (SWE) 1.38 Juan Del Potro (ARG) 2.58

Odds are from bwin

[jackynwa]

Mirnyi to do a job over Verdasco

[Wittmann 44]

Awful looking coupon in Halle tomorrow with lots of short priced favorites that should come in but that at odds I hate backing.

Bagdatis-Simon

I’m going to break a rule that I very rarely break and advise something below 1.40 and say Bagdhatis looks some value here. The next best price I could find was 1.22 with Stan James on the big Cypriot. Simon has not been right since an injury in February and has very little grass experience. His serve is so-so as well. Bagdatis will be a live contender at Wimbeldon and this should be straightforward enough. The 1.22 looks closer to the price than the 1.33 on Betfair right now.

Bagdatis 2 Units @ 1.33 (BF)

Soderling-Koubek

Under normal circumstances Soderling should mangle Koubek who is simply picking up a cheque here but the Swede retired at Roland Garros and I’m reluctant to get involved.

One match that hasn’t been priced up from what I can see is Wawrikna-Korolev. I would think that it will be priced with Wawrinka a slight favourite (maybe 1.80). If it is on Betfaair I will take that price. Wawrinka is the better player and has slightly more experience on grass than Korolev who pulled injured in his last game with a flu that seems to have been severe enough to keep him out for over a month and a half.

One double from Halle.

2 Units Blake, Youznhy (odds 1.53) Stan James.

Blake and Younzhy have reasonable grass form and are cuts above their opponents Querry and Russell. Querry has a good serve but not much else and he lost in Surbiton to Jim May a player outside the top 500. Youznhy has played Halle a number of years and has made a QF and SF here in the past.

[Wittmann 44]

At Queens Stella Artois

Veradsco-Miryni

I’m going to go have to slightly reluctantly go against jackynwa and plump for Verdacso to beat Miryni. The Belarusian is a doubles man these days – he has played a mere 18 singlkes game this year and has only won 5 – he has also lost the last 7. Verdasco has beaten him twice on clay and hardcourt. Verdasco is a clay courter who is actually fairly decent on grass – he made Wimbeldon 4th round last year and made the QF here at Queens last year prior to that.Verdasco is a confidence player and with a good run in Roland Garros behind him he is a very tasty price here.

2 Units Verdacso @ 1.87

Falla-Benneteua

Benneteua looks a slightly false favortite here to me. He’s in a very poor run of form since exiting in Indian Wells back in March with no-one of any note beaten after that. He is a negative 6-9 on grass and meets Falla who has warmed up on grass in Surbiton by going out to eventual winner Tsonga at the QF stage. Benneteua is 0-3 here and might have some trouble adjusting to the change in surface.

1 Unit Falla @ 2.36

Hernandez-Udomchoke

Very speculative punt on the Spaniard Hernandez here. Hernandez is L2 on grass but I still don’t see how Udomchoke can start a 1.21 favorite here given he has lost 8 of the last 9 and is a wretched W13 L16 for the year to date. You can put a cover bet on Udomcoke 2-1 if there is any decent liquidity up on Betfair later.

Lay Udomchoke @ 1.22 (0.25 Units Risked)

Lee-Bogdanovic

Lee looks decent value here to continue a good run at Queens that has seen him make a QF and a SF here in recent years. He has had a poor clay season (as expected) but his serve is strong and his opponent is W2 L5 here and is off a bad defeat to countryman Bloomfield. Not much liquidity right now but should firm up. This will be live in running.

1.5 Units Lee any price above 1.65

Guccione-Seppi

Big serving Australian Guccione looks to me to have far too much on grass for the clay loving Seppi. He is just off SF appearances on grass iN Surboton and Manchseter where he went out to the winner and finalist in both events respectively. Seppi was playing a challenger on clay in the Czech republic last week and while he made the SF in Nottingham last year I think that the change in surface and the power of the Aussiese serve will be too much here.

2 Units Guccione @ 1.47

Another double on grass here with Bet365

2 Units Stepanek, Ginepri @ 1.45

Both Ginepri and Stepanek have had forgettable 2007 so far – the curse of Hingis has struck Stepanek while Ginepri seems a shadow of the player who made the SF in the US Open in 2005. There are reasons for hope here however – Stepanek is top 10 on grass and a run to the SF doubles in Paris must mean his serve and volley game is in some shape. HE also faces a player he has beaten 4 from 4 (albeit all very tight) including on grass. Sanguinetti is also back from a 2 month injury lay off so must be ring rusty. Bloomfield needed a painkilling injection when exiting to Guccione in Surbiton so I'd have questions over his fitness. He also holds a miserable W1 L18 record against players in the top 100 – the sole win on grass against the clay loving Berlocq. If the favourites turn up in any kind of mood they should easily win these games.

Lopez-Mathieu

Lopez not in any kind of form but still looks a reasonable shout here. He has a decent record on grass and holds a 3-2 H to H against Mathieu. Mathieu is 3-10 on grass but he has had some terrible draws (Fed, Philiposusos). Lopez should win but the 1.73 looks mangy.

[rcgills]

Going to have to go against you on Seppi v Guccione I'm afraid, Wittmann. Guccione's SF in Manchester was last year wasn't it, unless Tennis Insight is out of date? He lost in the SF there to Britain's Josh Goodall (ranked 368 at the time), and the tournament was won by India's Harsh Mankad (ranked 396 at the time), so I'm not sure that run there can really be used to argue a case for Guccione here. Fair enough, he's got one grass tournament under his belt last week in Surbiton, and a run to the SF there, but Seppi's stats suggest he's no mug on grass, with a 15-7 record, and I don't see him as anywhere near this big an outsider for this match.

Seppi to beat Guccione @ 3.15 2pts

I will go along with you though on Verdasco to beat Mirnyi. Verdasco leads 2-0 on the H2H, one on clay and one on hard court, and his grass court record is a pretty reasonable 17-8, and 8-2 for the past 12 months, with runs to the last 16 last year here at Queens (coming through the qualifiers, before losing 2-1 to Nadal, only losing those two sets on tiebreaks) and then at Wimbledon (beat Nalbandian in straight sets, before losing in 5 sets to Stepanek). Mirnyi is on a poor run this year, falling at the first hurdle in his last 6 tournaments. Erm, that's pretty much just recycling what you've already said, really

Verdasco to beat Mirnyi @ 1.8 4pts

[rene]

what about the young british player Baker?
He´ll meet Alexander Peya from Austria - both aren´t important players but Baker with home advantage.Peya played only one tourney on grass last season (Wimbledon) and was out in round 1.Baker played 3 grass tourneys but all time out in the first round...

Wimbledon Andreas Seppi 3-6 7-6(3) 4-6 3-6
Queens Club Mardy Fish 1-6 3-6
Surbiton Richard Bloomfield 4-6 5-7

Maybe a small stake on Baker ..

[Wittmann 44]

Hi Rene

Baker lost in Surbotin to a clay courter Giraldo (only 5 grass games and that only his second victory). He is a good bit below Peya IMO. He has never beaten a top 100 player (Peya is 98) and his recent Challenge form is bad,

[rene]

I take him in a double

Verdasco to beat Mirnyi
Baker to beat Peya

Verdasco lead 2-0 in the H2H versus Mirnyi.Mirnyi with good 1st serves but Verdasco (81kg,1.87m) isn´t with less power than the >>best from the east<<.

Baker as outsider.Peya isn´t much better but he´s 6 years older and longer on the tour. Thatswhy he´s higher in the ATP ranking. But Baker start at home and it seems that he like grass more than Peya.

odd: 5.33
stake: small

good luck

[rcgills]

I did look at that one, Rene, and to be honest I was almost tempted on Peya. He did go out in the first round at Wimbledon, but he won 3 matches there having come through the qualifiers. Baker's not got much of a clay court record, 5-9, and although the British players always seem to throw up the odd shock or two at Queens and Wimbledon, Baker's price isn't big enough to tempt me on him here. Good luck if you go with him though.

[rene]

I did look at that one, Rene, and to be honest I was almost tempted on Peya. He did go out in the first round at Wimbledon, but he won 3 matches there having come through the qualifiers. Baker's not got much of a clay court record, 5-9, and although the British players always seem to throw up the odd shock or two at Queens and Wimbledon, Baker's price isn't big enough to tempt me on him here. Good luck if you go with him though.

Just a try. Wanna add Bloomfield to win versus the us boy Ginepri but wouldn´t take my bet to unrealistic ..

bah... monday is the worst day for me in week. Back to work,see all the nuts here and my office have 30° or more ... damn..
If anyone has a job for me for my home office - pm me please

[Wittmann 44]

Guccione's SF in Manchester was last year wasn't it, unless Tennis Insight is out of date?

Apologies you're dead right RC. Gremlins in the mix. Yeah Seppi is a good shout. The first week on grass will be rife with upsets.

[Wittmann 44]

I’ve swerved H.T Lee in the end – much too tight a price at 1.61. I’d be looking for 1.66 minimum and ideally over 1.70. Bogdanovic is a mug but grass is easily his best surface.

I’d recommended backing Wawrinka around 1.80 when Betfair stabilised. He has started at 1.66 and come into 1.61 on Betfair. I’ve heard from a fairly reliable source that Korolev’s injury is groin related and that he was recommended to take an operation on a hernia but refused.

Wawinka not a grass court player by any means but he has beaten Karlovic on the surface and has taken a set of Ancic. Korolev has a sole defeat on the surface to his name.

2.5 Units Warinka @ 1.61

[jackynwa]

Anyone watching Mirnyi/Verdasco? Hows it looking?

[rcgills]

Better for you than it is for the rest of us, Jacky

Verdasco not really threatening much on the Mirnyi serve in the first set.

[Wittmann 44]

Two more doubles from the Stella Artois – one with a touch of the French and the others a touch of the Swedes

Mahut & Lldodra 1.75 Units @ 1.75 (Pinnacle)

Mahut plays Kunitsyn and Llodra plays Lu. Mahut won junior Wimbeldon back in 2000 and played some respectable games on grass last year beating the likes of Melzer, Malisse and Stepanek and taking Federer to a tie break. Kunitsyn is a clay courter although he did take down Monfils at Wimbeldon last year. Mahut is a classic serve and volley type on grass and I don’t think Kunitysn has the variety to beat him here. Kunitsyn was terrible in the French Open and there were rumours of dodgy betting in his thrashing to Serra where he didn’t manage a single break point. Llodra is another serve and volleyer with a decent record on the green stuff. He beat Lu easily 6-3,6-1 on grass back in 2004 and has a very respectable 31-14 record on the surface. He has won in Holland on grass and made a final there as well. Notable (grass) scalps include Phillipousos, Burgsmuller, Coria and Fish. Lu is having a terrible year and might be carrying an injury given the number of retirements and walkovers he has been involved in over the year. A recent defeat on his favourite surface to a player ranked in the 700s doesn’t bode well.

Johnansson & Bjorkman 1.75 Units @ 1.80 (Skybet)

Bjorkman plays Gimelstob a player who has beaten him twice on hardcourt (but who he beat on grass) – under normal circumstances I’d be laying Bjorkman at 1.30 but Gimelstob is back from back surgery in late 2006 and his comeback has been a nightmare – he has lost all 5 including losses to Schuetter, Vemic & Devlider. Bjorkman was in his day a great grass court player and his current form is excellent. Unless the big Yank rediscovers his service action I can only see 1 winner here. Johnasson plays the next great Argentinian hope Del Potro. The 4/9 availale with Skybet is massive in my view. Del Potro has played on grass twice back in 2004 on junior Wimbeldon and he meets a guy with a great serve who has two grass titles to his name and been to a Wimbeldon semi final. Johnasson has struggled with injury but I still can’t see him being beaten here.