Wimbledon men's event 25 June - 8 July

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

You thnk Mathieu is a 99/1 shot? Ridiculous!

I'll give you 99/1 now if you'd like.

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Chief77

I'll give you 99/1 now if you'd like.

Brilliant, didn't see you offering it before the match though. Incidentally, you can actually back Roddick @ 1.03 on betfair now, so I assume you'll be piling on, given how great the value is. To be honest, 1.03 probably is a good price now given the match situation, but to suggest that he should have been shorter than that at the start of the match seems absurd.

[Chief77]

Almost as absurd as suggesting that Mathieu was exactly the sort of player to show up Roddicks 1 dimensionality? (Think I made of made that last word up!)

Roddick was always going to win this match for me and opposing him didn't represent any value whatsoever. Davydenko, Canas and and Tsonga were the 3 that looked like value to me. (Although Canas was pretty poor today against Hewitt)

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Almost as absurd as suggesting that Mathieu was exactly the sort of player to show up Roddicks 1 dimensionality? (Think I made of made that last word up!)

He clearly is the sort of player that will beat Roddick. Obviously he's not going to do it on a consistent basis, hence the odds, but he certainly has the game on his day.

[Martens]

nicolas kiefer proved to be a tough task for djokovic, the very experienced nicolas, plays on smart way the serbian, and imo he can win today odds 3.3 for kiefer tempting, personally i am not involved

soderling is very weak mentally player, nadal is in poor shape, fifty fifty clash, but i give an edge to soderling to win, because the swede normally collapses if he is in pressure, today he feels that he can do it against horrible nadal, i expect him to fight like a lion for the win, and of course not to "gift" points to nadal as he did in previous sets, @2.8 nice! personally not involved

[edtkh]

Originally Posted by Hippy Dave

Brilliant, didn't see you offering it before the match though. Incidentally, you can actually back Roddick @ 1.03 on betfair now, so I assume you'll be piling on, given how great the value is. To be honest, 1.03 probably is a good price now given the match situation, but to suggest that he should have been shorter than that at the start of the match seems absurd.

Why should it be absurd? Roddick was more than a fair price at 1.16-1.25 at most places - in fact, 1.25 would be a cracking bet in my book. The Grand Slam pedigrees of the pair couldn't be starker and I still maintain Ladbrokes made a mess of their handicap betting (then again, they often dish out presents on their handicap markets anyway ) on offer when they so generously offer Roddick -4.5 Games at 1.72...

[rcgills]

Think you've missed the point there Edtkh. Dave was saying it was absurd to say Roddick should be shorter than 1.03 before the match started (which, by saying Roddick would beat Mathieu 99 times out of 100, is effectively what Chief was suggesting).

[Hippy Dave]

rc is correct, edtkh has missed the point

[Chief77]

Gonna take Davydenko at 13/8 to beat Baghdatis tomorrow. Reckon the bookies have overreacted a bit regarding Baghys 3 set demolition of Nalbandian. Nalbandian was shockingly poor on Monday and Baghdatis didn't really have much to beat out there.

After a shaky start Davydenko has grown more comfortable on the surface as the weeks gone on. Monfils bottled it somewhat but Davydenko hit some great shots during the match.

And added bonus for the bet is that Paddys are refunding all bets on matches that go to 5 sets, which I reckon this match has a very good chance of doing.

Verdict: Davydenko @13/8

[Martens]

Tsonga is brainless, i am sure that gasquet will beat this mug, my money gone
gasquet much more intelligence level

[Martens]

Baghdatis @1.45

Berdych @1.35

decent choices for me, i go with my full bank, i will never risk on mugz like tsonga,

baghdatis and berdych are both on fire, imo they play life's form,

bjorkman is very experienced grass courter, but the class difference is obvious in favour of the czech, i can not imagine any other result here


davydenko is hard working player, giving always his 100%

however, grass needs brain game, i dont say that davydenko is brainless like tsonga, i just say that i dont see a lot of brain on his game,the russian enjoys to play like donkie on clays, here the story is different, bagdas has massive weapons to destroy him,also i can not imagine any other result here

cya

[Zozo the Duke]

A. Roddick – R. Gasquet

Pick: A. Roddick
Odds: 1.44 @ Unibet
Stake: 6/10

Gasquet beat Tsonga with 3:0 today, but he didn’t impress me at all. He played very defensively without attacking and the main reason that he won is because impatient game that Tsonga played. Tsonga also made great number of unforced errors (he had many winners too) and that was the main reason why Gasquet is in the quarter finals.

Roddick is dominating in his matches with his great serve and although he entered this tournament not in the best shape, he is playing very good tennis. I think with the tennis that he is playing at the moment is too much for Gasquet. His attacking style is much better that Tsonga’s and Gasquet will have big troubles with his defensive approach.

These players meet each other twice so far, Roddick won both losing one set and winning four.

[Wittmann 44]

2 Units Gasquet @ 1.46 +0.87 Units

Not much time today but had a solid winner with Gasquet yesterday who barely stretched himself to beat a clueless Tsonga.

I’ve taken Bagy @ 1.56. Davydenko is a great competitor but grass is not his surface. Beating a serve reliant Monfils is hardly world beating and he’s looked vulnerable in the other two games if the score are anything to go by.

2 Units Bagy @ 1.56

Berdych has been on fire on the green stuff this year. Bjorkman’s a class act and he’s defied his age with some big wins (including some epic 5 setters) this year but this is as good an opponent as he has faced on grass and I’m expecting Berdych to take this one reasonable comfortably

2.5 Units Berdych @ 1.30.

Small speculative play on Youznhy. Its hard to say how the drawn out 5 setter against Soderling will effect Nadal but Youznhy has a nice mixed game, has good previous against the Spaniard and looks a bit of value to spring a small shock.

Youznhy 0.5 Units @ 3.20

On his day Gasqeut could beat Roddick. He has a more varied game than Roddick and has been coping well with the big servers (although Roddick is the mothership in terms to big servers). Gasquet is in his first Slam QF and against a player of Roddick’s experience that has to be a worry. Another worry is Roddick’s excellent record in tie breaks. His come from behind win in the deciding third yesterday was his 24th tie break win in 27 this year. In a tight game that could make all the difference. I think Gasquet will push him close but Roddick will probably take the big points.

[edtkh]

Very rarely do I go for such a large acca, but I think there's terrific value to be had in 1 particular acca...


20pts Berdych-Baghdatis-Roddick (2.51 @ Ladbrokes)

5pts Federer-Berdych-Baghdatis-Roddick -2.5 Games-Vaidisova -1.5 Games-Venus Williams -2.5 Games (11.72 @ Ladbrokes)

Federer, Berdych and Baghdatis' grasscourt pedigree is just way too strong for Ferrero, Bjorkman and Davydenko respectively - in fact, I think the books have overreacted a little by estimating Bjorkman and Davydenko's chances so highly in view of the fact they have all had a surprisingly good run at Wimbledon this year. That said, I still can't see past Berdych and Baghdatis halting their respective runs.

Gasquet hasn't been in the greatest of form, but he hasn't struggle to get to this stage simply because he has yet to play anyone of a formidable pedigree on grass. Roddick will just about provide him with the sternest test he has had all year on grass and I just can't see him outlasting Roddick - if anything, he's shown how vulnerable he could be on his own service games against Tsonga in the first set yesterday and he was indeed very lucky to have been able to emerge victorious in that set despite having been broken twice. All in all, if he were to do the same today, I'd expect him to be buried - his experience and form simply doesn't bode well for testing Roddick. Over a best of 5 match, Roddick -2.5 Games does indeed look alluring.

If Venus reproduces the sort of form she showed against Sharapova, she'd easily clear a -4.5 Games handicap, let alone a -2.5 Game handicap. As a matter of fact, it's hard to see past a Henin-Williams final at this year's tourny as these two just seem so much more experienced than the rest. That said, although Morigami provided Venus with a stern test in the match preceding Sharapova's, Venus always seems to have a knack of stepping up a gear when playing the better players and I've got to fancy her to see off Kuznetsova, who isn't exactly the greatest hardcourt player, with 3 games to spare.

On the back of Ivanovic's horrendously inconsistent, albeit fortuitous, showing against Petrova, it's enough to sway me to back Vaidisova for this one. Vaidisova's bigger serves and better movement on this surface is just about potent enough to make the difference at this level and it's pretty hard to make a case for Vaidisova not being able to clear this with 2 games to spare.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 102.20pts
Profit/Loss : 2.20pts

[Wittmann 44]

Now that’s what I call an acca Ed

Looks a better than 11/1 shot as well!!