Tennis 5th August - 12th August - Montreal (ATP) & JP Morgan Open (WTA)

[Wittmann 44]

Interesting stuff Martens. I hear Ancic had a virus but I didn’t realise it was a STD. I’m slightly surprised it is so serious. Niemeyer won a big Challenger (4^th of the year) in ffice:smarttags" />Vancouver on Sunday evening (beat big server Querry) but played a lot of tennis en route. I can’t see he can be 100% for this given he is 31. He also has a terrible record at this event – 1 in 9 starts. I’d be inclined to think Ancic can beat him but I’m going to leave alone.
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One from the second round in Montreal tonight

Stepanek-Gonzalez

Gonzo’season has been somewhat anti-climatic after his surprise run to the Slam Final in Oz. He made the Final in Rome but mainly courtesy of a favourable draw opening up for him and his recent back problems have meant that he has seen little action since Wimbeldon and the sole game played since was a very poor loss to Fleishman. Stepanek must have dumped the Black Widow Hingis as he has found some serious form recently with a first win in the US and some very solid performances lately. He has won the 2 from 3 against Gonzo (both wins in 2007) and you’d have to figure that a warmed up Stepanek will be too consistent for the big hitting but very error prone Gonzalez. Stepanek is a player I dislike a lot style and attitude wise but he’s been good to me betting wise and I think he’s value again tonight.

2 Units Stepanek @ 1.80

Two from the early Los Angeles starts

Azarenka-Brianti

Azarenka the 2005 US and Oz junior champion was on fire about 6 weeks ago with a SF in the Czaech Republic and a Final in Prague on clay but recently a succession of very tough draws and an injury picked up in Prague have kept her at a standstill somwhwat. She hasn’t disgraced herself in those defeats as she has taken sets of Chekevatdze (grass) and Kirilenko and Hantchova (hard) all players who would be significantly more experienced than her. She faces a player that she has already walloped on the other players surface (clay) and who is only here as a lucky loser (she got thrashed by T.T Sun who is in dire form herself). Brianti looks outclassed here and I could see a severe beating on the cards here.

2 Units Azarenka 2-0 @ 1.51

Shevdova-Peng

Speculative punt on Shevdova here. She hasn’t really kicked on from some good early year form but Peng has had some poor results recently and although I think that she is a better player I can’t trust her so heavily odds on.

1 Unit Shevdova @ 2.48

[Wittmann 44]

Disappointing last night. Polansky was ahead all the way through the second but couldn’t take 1 of 5 set points he had. Solid wins for Hewitt and Almagro fades badly as usual to give Russell the win. Youznhy finally manages a win against Grosjean. Will be opposing Foggini to maximum stakes with the winner of Ginepri-Murray

Lee 1.50 Units @ 1.83 -1.50 Units
Russell 2.25 Units @ 1.71 +1.52 Units
1.75 Units Hewitt @ 1.44 +0.73 Units
0.75 Units Polansky @ 2.60 -0.75 Units
1 Unit Grosjean @ 2.56 -1 Unit

ATP Event Staked 10.25 Units
ATP Event Profit +0.91 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff Martens . Murray much sharper than I thought he would be but Ginepri was very poor.

Good draw for him against clay couretr Foggini in the next round. Can't see anything but a very easy win there. 3rd round would be Hewitt/Blake or Robredo/Hrbaty

[Martens]

thnx mate! lovely game by murray, i watched it, great great tennis spirit indeed, i said long time ago that murray is the "future number one" , i have no doupt about this, he is 20 years old, he is working too hard to reach the top of the world at 22-23, imo he is class above federer for sure, i dont know about nadal, coz spaniard is strange faenomenon, but i think murray will overpass him also...

now i am expecting baghdatis to win 2-0 over moya, and i am confident about this one also,

baghdatis didnt play in july, while practicing massively to improve his first serve, i also heard that he played some davis cup games, but for me i am 100% sure that his main interest is to climp the ranking and the atp race

moya is not good player any longer in my eyes, i said also this as from last year, he is in no way to face hungry and high rythm player, i am confident, but my profit is profit, so i backed a 2-1 win for moya just in case


bye bye, c u later

[Wittmann 44]

A few more from Los Angeles

Molik-Osterloh

Molik is forging a succesful doubles act with Santangelo and it seems a long time since she was in the top 20 in singles. I still think she is a decent player waiting to gets some confidence back and that Osterloh is nothing special at all. Osterloh is dangerous at home in the US but still think Molik is a cut above.

1.25 Units Molik @ 2.02

Danildou-Rezai

Rezai having a torrid time of late and with this her first hardcourt start since March you'd have to fancy a warmed up Danildou to give her a tough time. Danildou nothing special on hardcourt but Rezai is 9-18 for the year and has lost her last 6 on the surface. With her father in all sorts of diffciulties with immigration and the French tennis authorities I can see a rough night for her here.

1.50 Units Danildou @ 1.60

Safina-Bondarenko

Very odd pricing here with Safina who has a 3-0 h to h starting longer than she has in any of the 2007 matches (2) that she beat Bondarenko in. The pirce looks flat and Safina's form is solid enough to make this look a decent short odds punt. Bondarenko yetr to take a set of the Russian and she was very poor in her last outing against Bammer giving up 17 bp chances and hitting 10 dfs. Safina lost to the in form Mirza last time out but this should be more straightforward.

2.50 Units Safina @ 1.34

Kirilenko-Bartoli

Bartoli has bene complaining that her wimbeldon success means she has a target on her back since she started playing again. She has had a tough few weeks with a defeat to OSterloh seeing her in floods of tears at the end and a dire show against Dementieva which showed women's tennis at its very worst in terms of errors and poor serving. Kirilenko seems to have a head of steam up recently with defeats of Jankovic and Safarova and might be getting back to the tennis that saw her threaten the top 20. The h to h is 2-0 for Bartoli but the price looks big on the Russian babe and I'll have to lay Bartoli here.

Lay Bartoli @ 1.57 (1 Unit Risked)

[Wittmann 44]

Getting reamed by the ladies tonight. Safina the fat cow was abysmal just now.

Dulko has drifted a bit. Played well against Golivin last week. 2 Units Dulko @ 1.63

[Beanie]

Fingers crossed for Kirilenko Wittman...needs to get back up the rankings to start getting telly time again!

[Martens]

baghdatis ole ole ole

excellent stuff by the cypriot, 2-0 win, i am top today,....i said yesterday that tennis is gonna pay me...great great

i watched both games murray and baghdatis, i am happy everything happend exactly what i predicted

good night

c ya

[Martens]

i dont have time to analyse, very busy sorry

this is my trio today:

1. Murray
2.Baghdatis
3.Mathieu

all to win, sure 100% easy profit

i will try maximum stakes on wins, and also some money on 2-0 straight sets for all

bye bye

[Wittmann 44]

Strange sort of day yesterday. I finished just about ahead which seems about right in the cirscumstances. I got murdered by Safina’s collapse but caught lucky breaks with the Stepanek and Karlovic matches. Stepanek performed as great a smash and grab as you will ever see – faced down 8 break points (including 3 love 40 down when Gonzo would have been serving for the match if he took one of the bps). He then nicked his only bp chance and won .

Karlovic was poor in all departments bar serving. Miryni returned better and won 5 more points but big Ivo chewed him up in the 3^rd set tie break to extend Max’s dismal record in tbs for the year to W4 L12. All in all got out of jail early but payback was a bitch with a wretched performance by Safina. Most of last night’s womens games featured more breaks than holds of serves in what were mainly nail biters and evidence for me of why no way should the ladies get the same as the gents pay wise. Full update later.
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Murray-Foggini

ffice:smarttags" />Murray was much more convincing than I thought he would be against Ginepri who should start think about leaving earlier rather than later for chef school (as is his supposed post tennis plan) given the wretched show he put up. Foggini was gifted his win by Polansky who was ahead 5 times in the second set before going down in a barrage of ues. That win just about brought Foggini into parity on hardcourt (W9 L10) but Murray is as good as he as faced and I can’t see him even making a set here. He’ll be happy to pocket a nice second round cheque here.

2.5 Units Murray 2-0 @ 1.44

Wawrinka-Youznhy

Wawrinka was in impressive first round form bombing down 11 aces against the fairly in form Lee en route to a three set win. Main problem is he actually didn’t get many of his first serves in and Youznhy will be a lot less forgiving on second serve than Lee seemed to have been. All that said Youznhy didn’t serve well at all against Grosjean and een though he finally reversed a 4-0 h to h against the Frenchman it wasn’t an impressive performance based on the highlights I saw. Wawrinka well worth a punt at fancy odds.

1 Unit Wawrinka @ 3.30
0.25 Units Youznhy 2-1 @ 4.2

Hewitt-Blake

Looking forward to this one a lot which will, hopefully be screened live. Hewitt has an imposing h to h lead of 6-1 (5-1 on hard) but 3 of those wins were on 5 setters where his ability to hang tough and grind it out has hardly any equals in the last decade. Blake’s win over Melzer was very comfortable even though the scoreline makes it look like a tight game. Melzer didn’t make a single bp and Blake missed 13 from 14 bp chances in a game he should have had wrapped up much sooner. Hewitt was pushed hard by Ferrero who had some class moments but who could never put enough of them together at any one time. Blake has been inconsistent of late despite making a QF and a final. He has dropped sets to the likes of Goldstein and Lee and made heavy work of Johansson en route to what should have been routine wins. Hewitt is having a very poor year in tbs (W3 L10) which makes me concerned if Blake goes to a tb (W14L10 in 2007). Having said that Hewitt is a career W14 L3 on hard against the servers I’d rank with Blake and I think the Aussie is still the more consistent performer.

1.75 Units Hewitt @ 1.77

Ferrer-Nalbandian

5-1 h to h for Ferrer. Nalbandian looking overweight(ish) and disinterested – Falla had a number of chances which a better player than him would have taken. Bandy’s changed coach but his attitude remains uncommitted.

2 Units Ferrer @ 1.70

Odesnik-Dancevic

Odesnik shocked Ljubicic yesterday by withstanding a storm of aces (24) and nicking a third set tiebreak despite scoring two points less overall. He faces hometown boy Dancevic who is having a career best year with a first ATP final in Inidianapolis and some very solid Challenge results this year. I think the bookies have overeacted slightly to Dancevic’s recent form. He is still a player just inside the top 100 and Odesik has shown some decent form of his own this year. He is 5-5 against the big servers and has nicked a set in two of the 5 defeats. No way is Dancevic a ½ on shot here.

1 Unit Lay Dancevix @ 1.48
0.50 Units Dancevic 2-1 @ 4.2

[Wittmann 44]

From the early ladies starts.
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Govortosova-Bammer

Govortosova is shooting up the ranks and at this rate of progress she wil be top 25 by year’s end. Ultra aggressive with a big serve she was in great first round form and will throw everything at Bammer. Bammer is a solid counter puncher but isn’t a 1.40 shot here IMO.

Lay GBammer @ 1.40 (0.75 Units Risked)

Also a 2 Unit Rollover on Betfair

Dementieva 2-0 @ 1.39
rollover
Hancthcova to beat Cryabas @ 1.15
rollover
Jankovic to beat Peng @ 1.14

[redroar]

just announced on sky that blake has withdrawn with a stomach problem. Blast just bet on Hewitt too.

[Wittmann 44]

Murray you unmitigated wanker

I would have enjoyed seeing your ginger arse getting spanked by Italian no hoper Foggini if I hadn't spunked a max stakes bet on your sorry ass

[Peter Orchard]

I guess that blew the BBC sportsman of the year award.

Not sure what happened here ´cos I had no pictures but you can only guess he´s still treading gingerly on that wrist.

As it were.

Apparently the Italian played really well but then all things are relative.

[Peter Orchard]

Just about to start is Davydenko v Nieminen.
I don´t know what the concensus here is re the Russian but his humble background always gave him the nod for me where anything the least dodgey was concerned.
I prefer the theory that he´s under pressure from outside sources and reckon this match tonight will be tough in view of the last week´s events.
Favouring the Finn...