Tennis 19th - 26th August (ATP & WTA New Haven)

[Wittmann 44]

There’s a small event going on in Forest Hills (WTA hard) as well.

Razzano-Craybas

Razzano overachieved in the last few weeks but I think she’s underpriced here against a player that she has struggled with in the past. Craybas is well past her best but most of her decent results have come in the States. Razzano had treatment on her back during her loss to Jankovic and Craybas has taken at least a set in 3 of their 4 meetings (and won one on hardcourt).

Lay Razzano @ 1.40 (0.75 Units Risked)

From New Haven

Mirza-Bondarenko

Opposed Mirza fruitlessly on Monday but she came through very easily. She faces Bondarenko who I also opposed but who had a vry close two setter against up and coming Govortosova who took 4 breaks of her. The two games to date have been both won by Mirza but have been very close. I think this one should be more straightforward if Mirza keeps up recent form – 3 of her last 4 losses have been against the number 1 seeded player in the event. Mirza deserves a title for her play this last two months and in a weakened field here she is a live contender.

2 Units Mirza@ 1.54

Finally

Szazay-Hantchova

Hantchova pulled injured from her last event and faces Szazay who based on my lim ited viewings looks a big star in the making. Small stakes.

0.75 Units Szaazy @ 2.48

[Wittmann 44]

Good day yesterday with 3 from 3 ATP selections and 2 from 4 in the ladies. Only real disappointment was Mirza’s schizophrenic performance. She had more bp chances and scored more points but still lost fairly tamely to Bondarenko. In retrospect (always easy to say) given I knew she was having “personal issues” she was opposable (or at least not backable).

Svazay has signalled some intent with an excellent win over Hantchova. I can see some major shocks in the ladies section of the US Open this year. Whether someone will make a breakthrough and challenge for the top place is debatable but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few unfamiliar names in the mix at the end.

Something worth keeping in mind today is that the QFS are being played today so how interested some of the big guns will be if they get bogged down in a 3 setter in the third round is very debatable. Well worth keeping in mind if betting in running.

Selections later.

[Wittmann 44]

From this evening – lots of very very tight matches this evening.

Acasuso-Fish

Mardy Fish pulled of a great escape yesterday against the generally helpless on hardcourt Volandri when he came from a set and a break down to run off 10 straight games and win in 3 sets. This was the first time he had won back to back games since February and even getting into such a position of being a set and a break down against the clueless on hardcourt Italian would tend to suggest that his back injuries are not over yet. He also muddled past Mayer in 3 in the first round and what seems to be keeping him in these matches is his traditionally big serve. He meets a very much in form Acasuso who while not a natural hardcourter has been very solid (especially on serve) in the last few rounds. This should be close but with injury worries Fish is opposable. I think as well that Acasuso will be fully focussed on this event given that then second round matchup in Flusing Meadows will be against Roddick so I think he will be looking to make the most of this event. He leads the h to h 1-0 (clay 2007).

1.75 Units Acasuso @ 1.73

Robredo-Wawrinka

Robredo has put recent poor form behind him with a very easy win over Gicquel in the second round. Whether he can be fully trusted after some recent poor showings is a moot point but he does hold an excellent 3-0 record over Wawrinka including a straight sets US Open win over the Swiss man in 2006. Wawrinka had a very messy win over the ever clueless Monfils last round where he managed to give up only 1 bp chance from 11. He made a raft of errors however and if Robredo is anyway on song today he will punish him much more effectively than Monfils for whom the word “patchy” was invented for. Wawrinka has only once this year won more than 2 matches in a row (a slightly fortuitoius passage to the Final in Stuttgart) and I think his longterm injury worries are probably not fully resolved. I’m slightly reluctant to support Tommy given he seems to have problems of his own at the moment but the price is too good to pass up.

1.75 Units Robredo @ 1.82

Andreev-Ferrer

4th meeting between the two with the big hitting but erratic Andreev surprisingly (to me anyway) leading the h to h 3-1 with them splitting the two hardcourt games. Ferrer was more impressive in the opening games facing down and beating big serving Isner (for the second time in a fortnight) fairly comfortably in the end. Andreev muddled through in three against Montanes. On his day Andreev’s powerful hitting can trouble most and Ferrer’s excellent retrieving should get a good workout here. I have slight doubts about how committed Ferrer will be here and with Andreev’s fine record against him he warrants support on the handicap for me.

1.50 Units Andreev (+3.5 Games) @ 1.84 (Pinnacle)

Nieminen-Verdasco

Unusual meeting of two lefties this afternoon. I broke successfully the rule of Verdasco yesterday when backing the erratic Spaniard at odds on and going to break it again today and oppose him at odds against. Nieminen was fortunate (and perhaps very gutsy) in saving 3 match points against Lopez last round to extend the h to h there to 5-0. The Finn obviously wants to do well here with that sor of commitment. Verdacso dropped serve twice in the openering set against Spadea but recovered to win in 3. However a big part of me thinks that it was Spadea’s ageing body that let Verdasco run away it especiall with the third set yesterday where Spadea won only 13 points . Nieminen beat Verdasco very easily in the US Open in 2005 (and with greater difficulties in SW19 in 2003) and the solid Finn has a very good record against fellow lefthanders on hardcourt (W7 L2). I think this will be a fairly truly contested event with Nieminen perhaps having les focus on Flushing Meadows – Nieminen has a potential 3d round event interest ending matchup with Federer at the US Open but should be fairly confident about seeing of two qualifiers before that meeting. Verdasco has a nasty opener against Mathieu whom he has beaten 3 times with a lot of difficulty each time so might be more focussed on working towards afirst round win there then making a QF here which barely pays as much as the first round at Flushing Meadwows.

1.75 Units Nieminen @ 1.73

[Wittmann 44]

In the ladies section not a whole lot appeals at the QF stage -

Dementieva – Bartoli features two players with fitness / injury issues over them and the other matches look about the right prices. I might be tempted into backing Bonadrenko against Svazay later on tonight if her price drifts a bit. It was an excellent win for Svazay last night but not wholly unexpected given that Hantchova was probably not 100%.

I’ve had a slightly mad outright bet on Schiavone at 19/1 (0.5 Units) – she is W2 L5 against her QF opponent Kuznestova (and 0-3 on hardcourt) but she is playing the best tennis of her career (broke her titles duck in Switzerland recently) and if she beats the Russian her SF opponents of either Bartoli have serious questions marks over them. Worth backing even to lay back later IMO.

[Peter Orchard]

I´m not too keen on getting involved in this Wittmann but I wish you luck.
For me, there are too many motivational questions though I´m trying to form a picture and of course, there are many here who would give all to win at New Haven.

Fwiw, I go for the dogs in the Acasuso and Robredo matches if only because a) I think the Fish serve might be too big for the mentally weak Argentinian and b) the Swiss is back with a vengeance and see him as having most motivation here on Thursday before the slam.

Ferrer is too short against Karlovic though I hate the big servers as a long term thing with injuries never far away.
PHM should be too good for the talented Spaniard and I think Davy and Simon have met 3 times this year but I expect the workaholic Russian to edge this.

Have to take you to task over Schiavone, Wittmann..
In 2006(? ) maybe 2005 I saw her go to tops in Moscow late in the season. The Russians broadcast the whole tournament live and my dish covered the event.


Edit: Apologies, she lost to Mary Pierce in that event. I just had to check

[Wittmann 44]

Good point Peter re motivation.A QF here barely pays more than a first round at the US Open.

Like you say motivation is a definite concern but I tried to factor in people’s opponents at Flushing Meadows. Acasuso could very easily tank this if things don’t go his way first set but I don’t think Fish is 100% and I don’t think he’ll force himself too much. You really like Wawrinka but bar Stuttgart where he played his guts out and even spooked Nadal he has been average at best this year since his injury comeback. I watched some of his game streaming yesterday and it wasn’t pretty.

If I had massive concern over anyone today it would be Davydenko who I think won’t fancy this too much. I saw his last match on Betfair streaming against Simon (a gruelling 3 setter in Croatia) where Simon as he does when in the mood chased everything. Davydenko faced yet more questions yesterday over the infamous match with Vassallo and mentioned twice in the interview I saw how tired he was. It sounds to me like he might be preparing grounds for a less than convincing display. I’ve decided not to bet on him now on anything bar Masters and Slams. Far too many variables.

Stakes are small-medium as order of the day today.

[Peter Orchard]

I´m sorry you feel that way about my man Wawrinka, Wittmann!
I saw him on return from injury where he played quite tentatively but I think he´s on an upwards form curve and in my eyes, a massive talent.

I watched that indoor thing in Croatia (on clay?) when Simon played a huge game to beat Davy in 3. (lost a few quid in a hopeless trading whirlpool where the only way was down for me!) but on a hard court I expect a Davydenko to take this since I believe he´s a dedicated sportsman who goes out to win.

[rcgills]

Good grief, you've got Wittmann with Federer, Peter with Wawrinka, it's like a big Swiss love-in in here Can I have Martina Hingis?

Anyway, where's Martens when you need him?

Good luck for today.

[Wittmann 44]

Can I have Martina Hingis?

You’re welcome to her! On principle I'd have to refuse Radek Stepanek's leftovers though

Wawrinka spanking Robredo as we speak

Update from yesterday

1.50 Units Acasuso @ 1.79 +1.13 Units
2.25 Units Verdasco @ 1.48 +1.03 Units
1.75 Units Karlovic @ 1.48 +0.80 Units

ATP Staked 17.0 Units
ATP Profit +5.29 Units

Lay Schiaovone @ 1.37 vs Loit (0.50 Units Risked) -0.50 Units
3.25 Units Bartoli to beat Pascual @ 1.36 +1.11 Units
2 Units Mirza@ 1.54 -2.0 Units
0.75 Units Szaazy @ 2.48 +1.06 Units

WTA Staked 10.5 Units
WTA Loss -4.33 Units

[Peter Orchard]

Martina is doing things for Radek that we might only dream about.

I never saw a guy skip around a sports field like Stepanerk does and this from a guy who previously embodied the pre 1968 Czech-isness of a man who might smile but only if government gave the nod.

No offence to Czech friends on here.

[Wittmann 44]

Good calls there Peter. Robredo not at the races an Acasuso completely tanking the third set once he had lost the first - actually quite unusual as he has an excellent win record once he has one the first set .

Hingis has parted ways with Stepanek by the way! Will be interesting to see how his recent great form holds up.

[Peter Orchard]

Hope you still have a Svazay ticket, Wittmann.

The guys who have courted Martina in their time have all been blighted by injury.
Strange that Radek should show such outward signs of not being affected?

[rcgills]

On the subject of players' motivation, interesting to see James Blake fought back from 6-3, 5-4 40*-0 down on Calleri's serve. Saved those 3 match points, got the break, was promptly broken again to leave Calleri serving for the match for a second time, and Blake broke him straight back again. Blake took the tie break 7-2 and they're now into a deciding set.

More than 60,000€ traded on Calleri at 1.01 - that's got to hurt

[Wittmann 44]

Not too hot today but can count myself unlucky with Nieminen who blew a host of chances. Had a few quid on Simon which eased the pain somehwat

1 from the QFs about to kick of

Blake-Verdacso

Blake went to shcool in conneticut and has spoken about wanting to do well here. The desire was evident in the stirring comeback against Calleri. Verdasco being Verdasco won as a dog but it was Nieminen choking as mucn as anything else. he had the bps especially in the third set but couldn't make them count. Blake has a simply astonishing record against lefties (28-5 on hardcourt) and he has won 25 on the bounce on all surfaces. This includes wins against Nadal (*3), Nieminen (*3), Lopez (*2) and Melzer. Throw in a gretaer desire here and I can't see Verdasco getting any joy here.

3 Units Blake @ 1.42

[Wittmann 44]

Very frustrating day yesterday with only 2 from 5 as advised. Nieminen blew it big time with 3 squandered bps in the final set before giving up a break on his very next serve. Acasuso likewise after winning the first crumbled badly.

My outright on big Ivo still alive and kicking and he has an excellent h to h record against both Mardy Fish and Blake if he can keep up the mammoth serving form he has been in. He is 4-1 against Fish and has won all 7 tbs in those matches. If I was having an interest in the game I would probably be looking to go over 23.5 games given the extreme likelihood of a tb.

Only 1 appeals today and that is in the ladies –

Svazay-Danildou

I had the misfortune to be financially involved in the Safina-Danildou match late last night as I caught the game on a Russian satellite station and decided a last bet before I hit the hay was in order – Safina (whom I backed) had one of the most spectacular chokes of recent times. Having won the first set 6-1 , she served for the match at 5-4 and had 4 match point opportunities. She missed all 4 including the final one which agonisingly (for her and more importantly for me) ran along the net cord before falling back on her side of the court . Taking things to a tb which she lost in 8 she then proceeded to do her flaky elder brother proud with a gutless display 3rd set display against an opponent absolutely dead on her feet. In her display of ineptitude she managed to throw in 11 double faults and a number of ues that I simply got too disheartened to keep track off. Her opponent Danildou has been suffering from both a cold and a back strain (since he LA withdrawl a fortnight ago) and has now played over 10 hours in this event alone.

I thought Svazay might struggle against Bondarenko but she gave up only a single bp and broke serve 4 times from 9 opportunities. She has served extremely well and in her 6 matches here she has dropped serve only 4 times and has yet to concede a set. This will be a huge breakthrough for the young Hungarian if she even makes the final here – the prizemoney alone will be almost 60% of her to date career earnings and an appearance will bring her into the top 40 (around 35) for the first time if my calculations are correct which should see her seeded at most Tier II-IV events. Danildou is a gutsy fighter but unless her coach has the magic sponge handy tonight I can’t see her having the gas in the tank for this one.

2.25 Units Svazay @ 1.45