US Open - 27th August to 9th September

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Ive decided to take the plunge on Safin.

Think his odds are rather large against a player who has failed to qualify for this tournament the last 4 years although saying that he has had some great scalps against the likes of Roddick, Del Potro to name a few.

Im hoping the occasion will get to him as Safins not really done much of note so far this year but on his day he is one of the top players.

GL

[engineer]

IMO the price for Henman is too big and I'm taking a bit - 1/10. After all it's Tim Henman we are talking about, we saw that the loss from Isner was not one to be so ashamed of and Tursunov is not that much of a claycourter.
So, I'm not missing 5.90 for Mr. Henman.

Wanted initially to lay Mardi Fish, but in fact I won't, I even haven't heard of Echagaray before.

My main bet will be Cornet to beat Wozniacki, the French can be one of the pleasant surprices here and it's not Wozniacki that will stop her.
Cornet 4/10.

In the end extremely speculative bet - laied 2:0 victory for Henin against Pironkova at 1.17. Pironkova is playing decent tennis, ran over Poutchkova in the 1st round and can fight to win the first set here, like she did at Roland Garros vs Serena Williams. She isn't serving very consistently, but I'll try that bet for interest.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Tursunov is not that much of a claycourter.

This isn't a clay court tournament though, Engineer

[engineer]

Originally Posted by rcgills

This isn't a clay court tournament though, Engineer

Hardcourter I meant, of course, RC. Anyway, my fingers typed claycourter.
Doesn't mater, Henman performed really well and didn't gave the Russian many chances. Henman is great!

[rcgills]

Yes, nice call Engineer . Didn't really think Henman stood much of a chance myself, but that was a great result for him.

[kompressaur]

Paddy Power special to all customers i believe-

Sets Appeal
Men's US Open 2007
Free Bet Special
If you place a losing match bet on any match that is decided over 5 sets Paddy Power will give you a Free Bet to the same stake on any other US Open match. We have already refunded losing stakes as free bets on 10 matches that went to a fifth and deciding set.

Conditions
Sets Appeal
Applies to singles placed before match starts only, does not apply to betting in running.
Applies to match betting only.
Applies to Singles matches only.
Only applies to bets placed online or by phone.
Max Free Bet €300/£200 per customer.
Free Bets can only be used on US Open matches.
Does not apply to the 2007 Men’s US Open Final.
Paddy Power tennis rules apply

[redroar]

Thanks for posting that komp. I had a look at the paddy power market and there odds are'nt bad. Hopefully they'll have a market for Henmans match tommorrrow. Tim seems to at play at least four sets when winning and FIVE when losing so will be having a punt on tim with paddy power.

[Peter Orchard]

The 3-1 set bet almost came in when Safin offered the 3rd set to Dancevic but the Canadian politely refused and the Russian tidied up quite easily.

Otherwise good to see Wawrinka battle trough a tight 5 sets while Gonzo must be having problems of the heart since he doesn´t seem able to do anything right on court and will Oscar Hernandez ever win away from the clay?

Today a largely unproven Andy Murray is offered at 1,26 where I was kinda hoping for close to evens for a tie with the wily Bjørkman!

I also think Schiavone is over-rated in her match up with Paszek.
Hingis is just one defeat away from going out and her body language suggests it will happen sooner rather than later though I´m not sure Parmentier is the girl to administer the coup de grace.

An injury free Vakulenko will have too much for Kostanic, Max Mirnyi looks nice value and could have another round of singles in him; Razzano is playing some of her best stuff ever looks good value against Radwanska the elder while I´ll be looking for some of Kiefer´s best though 3,10 doesn´t tempt.

[kompressaur]

Cheers redroar. It seemed a good offer when i noticed it. I note that Paddy Power are also offering a free bet up to £30 for new customers so it sounds like an ideal time to get a Paddy Power account if you like tennis betting. Good luck with all your bets free or not redroar.

[kompressaur]

Sorry Peter i missed you there. Dooes anyone find it amusing that Murray has always suffered with a wrist injury? No ok then

[Wittmann 44]

Have a few hours while some stuff gets printed

I’ve actually had a pretty good US Open so far without doing much research – lots of short priced winners coming good in accumulators which I rarely do. Watched quite a few of the late night matches as well – early thoughts are that Nadal will have a struggle to make the 2nd week. His movement was very suspect last night. The clash between Isner and Federer will probably go the way of the recent Federer-Karlovic clash – no breaks of serve and Fed wins the tb. Even a 3 setter might probably go over 35.5 games.

Well done Henman –although Tursonov played a wildly inconsistent game Henman’s net rushing tactics at every moment probably contributed to the inconsistencies. Beating Tsonga is definitely possible and a 3rd round clash with (possibly) Nadal is a fairly decent reward.

I’m not a fan of short priced singles (although see below) so I’m going to swerve a lot of games today that look fairly open and shut. What does interest me is:

Bjorkman-Murray

Of British interest is Murray’s battle against Swedish veteran Bjorkman – Bjorkman hasn’t done much singles wise here in years but I’m still not too sure I would want my money riding on Murray’s dodgy wrist at 1.28. Both players picked up 1st round clay coureters which were easily beaten but this should be a much tighter contest. I don’t think Bjorkman’s age will be too much of an issue as his heroics at Roland Garros confirmed how fit he still is. Nice looking matchup of styles that I think should be very enjoyable. I don’t think the young Scot is anywhere near full fitness and lets not forget how appalling he was recently against Fogini after what seemed an excellent first round win against Ginepri. Bjorkman will push him hard here and is worth a play (although tradeing looks better if you can).

0.75 Units Bjormkan @ 4.6
0.25 Units Murray 3-1 @ 3.85

Simon-Verdasco

I love Verdasco – bar Karlovic no other player has made as much money for me this year (whether backing or opposing him). His chameleon nature well and truly on display in his unlikely come from 2 sets behind win against that other headcase Mathieu. He was dire in the first two sets before Mathieu imploded badly. Simon had a much more routine win when his opponent Waske retired second set. Verdasco has actually a very solid record at the US Open and Simon has definitely underachieved. Having said that Simon works very hard and chases down everything. If bad Nando turns up Simon will get enough balls back into play to punish his errors – he outplayed the Spaniard on clay in Spain back in 2006 and is the value play here.

1 Unit Simon @ 2.62

Lopez-Andreev

I had backed Lopez at fancy(ish) odds to see off the waning Ferrero first round and the big hitting Spaniard didn’t let me down with a pretty comprehensive win. His reward is a tough looking draw against Andreev who let Kendrick blow himself out with a lot of fancy serving but far too many ues. The h to h of 2-0 in favour of Lopez is on clay which is fairly persuasive for me although what really swings me towards this bet is firstly the powerful serving of Lopez which should enable him to pick up the cheaper points and secondly Andreev’s abysmal record against lefties – he has only won 3 of the last 15 – he has lost twice to Lopez, Verdasco and 3 times to Melzer which seems to suggest some deeper issues there. Neither player has shone at Flushing Meadows although Lopez’s record is slightly more impressive. I fancy him to cope slightly better with the heat as well.

1.75 Units Lopez @ 1.92

Johansson-Clement

Interesting looking battle of the veterans here with lots of history between the two men. Recently I had a nice win with Johansson at long odds when he beat a Clement in Wahsington who was returning from injury. The h to h is 5 apiece although Johannson leads the hard 4-1. Much of the history is fairly ancient however and of dubious relevance. Clement held his nerve very well against Big Ivo’s usual ace barrage yesterday to edge a 5 set thriller. Johannson whose early season form must have had him thinking about retirement has kicked on a lot since Washington and is fresh from a Challenger win in New York. I’d be slightly wary of reading too much into that as he has dropped sets to Okun and Sweeting and struggled slightly against Massu yesterday. Having said all that I’m still inclined to side with the Swede on his best surface – he has a great tb record at Slams (16-6) and Clement has had a problem with the big servers on everything bar grass as very poor records against Lube and Roddick would tend to show. I’m not sure either how the Frenchman will cope after a 5 set epic even allowing for the recovery day – the last two times he won in 5 sets he lost the next day.

1.50 Units Johannson @ 2.16

Pretscher-Haas

Very speculative play against Haas here against a less famous fellow German. Tommy has never really recovered from his shoulder problems IMO and was having problems in his first round match. He complained of shoulder pains in his post match interview and at odds of 12s it might be worth chancing a few quid that his problems falir up again. Betfair and one ball books only.

0.25 Units Pretecher to beat Haas @ 12

Koubek - Llodra

Koubek has been nothing if not consistent in his inconsistency this year – he has followed a good performance with an absolute howler – he has only won successive games twice in the last 20 events (going back to February 2007). Llodra has been marginally better at best – he has mainly been playing challenger stuff over the last year although he made the 3rd round in Miami (beating Koubek 4 & 0 en route) earlier. It seems crazy to think about backing a player as messy as Koubek is but he had a morale boosting over the very in form Querry yesterday and with Llodra suffering back problems that will see him in surgery after Flushing Meadows I think he represents some value. Dropping a set to whipping boy Volandri doesn’t inspire too much confidence in Llodra for me either. I can’t see anyone running away with this and if it goes on more than 3 I’d fancy Koubek strongly here. This will incidentally be probably one of the worst matches you can possibly see at this level given the form the two are in. I’ll be tuning the satellite to Austrian TV!!

1.25 Units Koubek @ 2.38

Going for one large stakes single as well:

Canas-Lee

Its shocking to me that a player as talented as Canas has only been beyond the second round here once in 5 attempts although this looks like an excellent opportunity to make it 2 from 6. In a fairly high quality game Ramirez playing above himself caught a second set break when a dubious line call threw Canas completely and resulted in an ongoing dispute with the chair umpire that contributed towards him losing the set. Eventually rallying he closed out in 4 fairly comfortably. He faces Lee who beat Hrbaty in a match for which the word epic was invented. I took a fairly heavy hit on this having backed Hrbaty both before and in running fifth set as the fit Slovak has an excellent (or should that be had) record in 5th sets. Lee however despite having 3 5th set time outs for cramps put in a gutsy performance in beating a choking Hrbaty. How much that will take out of him is debatable but Canas will surely have the Korean running from side to side in an effort to find out. Lee is a much better player in the US than elsewhere but Canas made Miami finals in March and on song will put back everything thrown at him. Lee doesn’t have the weapons here IMO.

3.50 Units Canas @ 1.34

[kompressaur]

Great post Wittmann. Good luck with all your bets today.

[edtkh]

Shall keep this as brief as possible...


20pts Roddick -6.5 Games-Murray (2.075 @ Ladbrokes)

I really like the look of Murray in this one - 1.25 is simply way too big, his fitness notwithstanding. With the greatest respect to Bjorkman, his best days are long behind him now although he's still doing reasonably well on the doubles circuit. A semi-fit Murray would be more than enough to take him out - looking at the way Murray handled the Uruguayan in the first round, you've got to fancy him here.

Roddick -6.5 Games against Acasuso has got to be the bet of the round. Although Roddick leads Acasuso 3-1 on h2h, Roddick's won both encounters between the pair on hardcourts - and each time, Roddick cleared the -6.5 game handicap at a canter in a best of 3 match. Given a best of 5 encounter for this one, with a vociferous support to boot (as they do with most Americans from Young to Blake, Isner to Roddick), it's hard to see Acasuso running Roddick close here.


20pts Verdasco-Gasquet-Hingis-Vaidisova-Almagro (2.69 @ Ladbrokes)

Gasquet, Hingis, Vaidisova are pretty much self-explanatory - all 3 of them have simply got way too much experience for their opponents at this level, not to mention they're a class above them too.

Almagro is overpriced in this one as far as I'm concerned - Horna has been very, very mediocre on this surface all year. Almagro, on the other hand, has impressed in a couple of masters series events and, while not exactly par for the course for the big boys, has proved a consistent performer against someone of Horna's calibre.

Also, I feel Verdasco represents pretty decent value here, in spite of his come-from-behind 5-set victory over Mathieu in R128. His experience at this level could just prove the difference between the pair - after all, here's someone who straightsetted Henman a year ago. Simon, although he leads Verdasco 1-0 on h2h, is pretty much a player for the small stage consigned to the lesser ATP events - quite simply, this is not his stage and I can't help thinking Verdasco is somewhat overpriced.


Cheers & Good Luck!

Starting Bank : 100.00pts
Current Bank : 100.00pts
Profit/Loss : 0.00pts


PS : Could a mod sort out the problem with the bold function? Thanks. (Feel free to delete this after the problem is sorted...)

[engineer]

Well, I'm with Wittmann and Peter in most of their fancies.
No time now (like Witt said it's good to have a big stuff printing), but here are mine:
Bjorkman 0.5pts
Simon 1pt
Cibulkova 1pt
Bremond 0.5pts
Parmentier 0.5pts
Mirnyi 1.5pts

Llodra+Lopez+Gasquet+Canas 4-fold 2pts

[Wittmann 44]

From the ladies section:

Mirza-Granville

Mirza has stormed back from injury and has had an excellent summer in the US with a QF, SF and Final in recent appearances. She faces a player who looks in very poor shape. Granville injured her foot in Cincannti and in her 5 games since has beaten only two qualifiers –(Gloria and Sanchez). The reality is that her ranking of 60 has been built on Challenger foundation. She plays lots and gets her ranking points that way. If you take out her ITF games and qualifiers she is 11-14 for the year and a more damning stat is that she is W2 L10 on hardcourt against players ranked between 11 and 25 (Mirza is 27). Granville with the crowd behind her will battle hard and might nick a set but if there is a woman’s banker today around 1.20 then this is it.

3.00 Units Mirza @ 1.20

Mattek-Peer

Peer’s chest injury hasn’t gone away. According to an Israeli sports forum I was browsing she gave an interview saying she was unable to practice properly and that she felt difficulties towards the end of her laboured victory over Tu. Mattek is nothing special but Peer looks vulnerable here. One ball books and Betfair again.

0.75 Units Lay Peer @ 1.17

Schiavone-Pazsek

I was expecting around 1.40 for this so the 1.55 on Schiavone here looks very big. Pazsek ran her to 3 sets recently and looks one to watch in the future but Schiavone is in a very rich vein of form since taking her first title in Austria after lots of previous heartbreak. She has beaten Schynder, Demetieva in recent weeks and thrashed Dechy yesterday. Schiavone has an excellent 20-8 record here and has made the 3rd round in 6 of her last 7 attempts. Paszek one for the future but this looks a big ask for the 16 year old.

2.25 Units Schiavone @ 1.54

Azarenka-Cibulkova

I know Peter will accuse me of being an “Azarenka groupie” (not the worst of fates either ) but I’m afraid that bets wise I will be on her again today – she has beaten Ciblkova in all 3 meetings (1 a year since 2005 on all 3 major surfaces) without dropping a single set. She humbled Gagliardi 1 & 1 in the first round opener and looks to have too much power here. There are online rumours that Azarenka has picked up an injury to her shoulder during yesterdays 3 sets doubles loss with Chekevatdze which has seen her drift out to 1.43 from a price of 1.33 which is of slight concern. I’ve reduced stakes accordingly. She finished a 3 setter and any ice might just be a precautionary measure. Isner had the largest ice pack I’ve ever seen after the Nieminen victory but was in storming form against De Voest last night.

1.75 Units Azarenka @ 1.43

Kostanic-Vakulenko

A meeting between two out of form players who are here I think mainly due to opponents with injuries more than any particularly brilliant play on their parts. Neither are in great form. Vakulenko turned her ankle in Birmingham in June and has lost all 6 since coming back from that injury. Marriage does not seem to have suited Kostanic either who is having a wretched year – easily her worst since turning professional. Having said all that she is probably a better hardcourter than Vakulenko and her US Open record is at least as good (or bad) as Vakulenkos. This looks tight and Kostanic looks worth supporting at a very juicy price.

1 Unit Kostanic @ 3.70
0.5 Units Vakulenko 2-1 @ 4.40 (Average)

Rodinova-Petrova

My biggest ladies win this year was at nearly 10/1 in opposing the flaky and injury prone Petrova at Roland Garros when she played with a back injury and went down in 3 to journeywoman Pestchze. She pulled from the doubles here last night and while it might be precautionary I’m hoping (sorry Nadia) that it might be a bit more. Rodinova hasn’t made the transition from the ITF to the main tour but at a massive price I’ll chance small stakes here.

0.25 Units Lay Petrova @ 1.06

Srebotnik-Kirilenko

I have to side with Srebotnik here against Kirilenko. The lovely Maria has definitely improved from a terrible first half of the year but Srebotnik looks a far more consistent performer and she has easily won their two previous meetings. Last time out she went off at 1.67 on the Big Blue and I don’t think too much has changed since – Srebotnik for me.

1.75 Units Srebotnik @ 1.79

Razzano-Radawanska

Razzano on an excellent run (final at Forest Hills) ,hardcourt wins over Peer(*2), Mirza and Chekevatdze recently looks completely underestimated here against the talented young Pole Radawanska. Radawanksa finally showing some of the talent that won her the juniors at Wimbeldon and Roland Garros in 2005 but Razzano is consistent from the baseline and with a summer of playing in the US and good results behind her looks better value here.

1.50 Units Razzano @ 2.62