Yeah hope things turn around this week Kiko.
Looking at my records I made 22 points profit since the end of July (nearly 7%) I’ve lost nearly 18 points the last three days
– made two poor errors that I don’t usually make – took work stuff home and secondly chased a big loss on Canas. Not nice. Working towards getting the loss down to single figures for the rest of the event.
Unlucky yourself with Calleri. I try to avoid closing bets out for that very reason but easy to be wise afterwards – Hewitt getting beaten a huge shock. Calleri has done nothing in years here and is in poor form. Should be due a rebound defeat.
Too depressed to do a detailed update but this weeks horror show is:
ATP Staked 20.50 Units
ATP Loss -7.83 Units
WTA Staked 17.00 Units
WTA Loss 10.97 Units
Hopefully todays will be better. Can’t disagree with most of Eds shouts – the only one I would gingerly oppose is Haas against Grosjean (see below). You’d be a very rich man if you bet Blake against lefties (he munches them for breakfast) and Koubek looks toast. Azarenka whom I like a lot should be competitive but her aggressive style racks up the errors and even if Hingis not the force she was she should be able to grind out a win here.
For me today
Grosjean-Haas
I haven’t seen Grosjean yet at this US Open but I watched most of Tommy Haas’s match against Pretchser(spl?) first round and he looked out of sorts. The younger German actually created far more break points but couldn’t close them out. I opposed Tommy first round and managed a small tradeing profit when he lost the first set and went a break down in the second and I’m going to do the same today. I don’t think he is the same player since all the surgery and Grosjean has a good record against him (W5 L3). Tommy has won both hartdcourt games although he dropped a set in each and I don’t think you will go too far wrong in backing Grosjean here if you are in a position to watch the match.
1 Unit Grosjean @ 3.15
Lopez-Young
Lopez’s gutsy showing against Andreev where he came from 3-5 down in the deciding tie break to win was one of my very few good moments this last week. I backed Lopez that round due in the main part to how well he goes against fellow lefties – his record is very good with some notable scalps in that lot. Young is here by virtue of a walkover over Gasquet and definitely looks one for the future but Lopez is solid and should have the experience to edge this and make the fourth round for the first time. I’ve been burned badly with my 2 max bets this week but I feel this looks a big value bet today. Quotes of 1.25 look a lot more realistic to me.
5 Units Lopez @ 1.39
Verdasco - Berdych
Neither man had any trouble from poor second round opponents but this looks a very interesting match up between two stylish players dogged with less than stellar will power. I’m going to side with Verdasco here as Berdych looks that little bit too short. I’d be wanting 1.60 to back him here. Verdasco beat him on hardcourt in 2005 and since winning a Challnger on hardcourt in Spain recently has been showing some decent form. The 5 set win against Mathieu showed a lot more fortitude than he usually does. With a positive mindset (big if I know) he can run the Czech close. This looks a 5 setter to me.
1 Unit Verdasco @ 3.15
I’m holding my powder on Murray – Lee. I’m leaning towards Murray but it looks a bit tight. I’d be hoping for slightly more than the 1.59 avaialable
US Open - 27th August to 9th September
TOTW/F/M Award(s): 1
.GIF "Thumb(1)")
. The fact that it was definitely volley material played second part to a crowd pleasing effort 
That said, this is certainly pretty very much an exception as Sharapova, Davydenko and Chakvetadze all look a notch above their opponents. Davydenko, being caught up in the midst of a betting scandal (which I've long suspected him to be involved in dating back to the PL days), has certainly looked more focused and prepared to give his best lately with an impending enquiry coming up. On the back of how he destroyed Kiefer, I can't see Almagro pushing him here. Chakvetadze should also have the beating of Mirza, who was pretty poor in her last match.
