US Open - 27th August to 9th September

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Peer blows a break . Not playing anywhere as well as the previous night.

Gets the break back

I still think Peers overpriced. As high as 6s. Shes been playing good and is well in this match still, cue the 6-1 loss coming in the 2nd set now

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Ha Ha

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Kiko

Gets the break back

I still think Peers overpriced. As high as 6s. Shes been playing good and is well in this match still, cue the 6-1 loss coming in the 2nd set now

That was rather prophetic of you, Kiko

Peer just capitulated there really, didn't she? Chakvetadze took 10 of the last 11 games

Now, come on Szavay

[Chief77]

Davydenko playing as well as ever I've seen him play. Accordingly I've just backed him to win the US Open at odds of 20/1!

Probably up against Roger next but the way he's playing I reckon he may have an outside chance of causing an upset.

[mrmuzeman]

Roddick 5/1 to take first set, why not

[Peter Orchard]

It would be great to see Ferrer follow up from his win over Nadal but why do I think that 1,26 is short?
Possibly because the guy at the other side can also boast a good US Open and that makes Ferrer more like 1,60 for mine.

If Moya beats Djokovic I´ll eat my hat intravenously. This should be 1,15.

And this is the Djokovic video they showed on Canal+ Deportes the other night.
Look out for the Hewitt impression

YouTube - Djokovic as Roddick, Hewitt, Sampras, Nadal + more part 2

[Chief77]

Good day yesterday with the two Russians doing the business for me.

Ferrer V Chela: Reckon this will be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Reckon the bookies may have overreacted to Ferrers win against Nadal. Thought it should have been priced 4/6 6/4 myself. 1/4 is very short for Ferrer.

Hard to pick a winner though and i'm gonna go for the 41 games or more offer at 5/4 with Paddys. I reckon all the sets will be pretty tight so even if theres only 4 sets the bet should be a winner.

Verdict: 41 games or more in Ferrer V Chela match @5/4.

[redroar]

Have to agree with you there Chief, odds are way too low on Ferrer. The H2H is long ago to be relavent, but i dont think ferrer has done that much in between to merit being such a big favourite. Also think it'll go to at least four sets so I'll be taking 35.5 games and over @1.56.

I might take a sall piece of Chela as 4.5 seems great value in a match that is essentially a 60/40 shot for Ferrer.

Good uck all

[Wittmann 44]

Not too bad yesterday. Williams lost, Davy won, Jankovic fell short but the games went over so a small profit.

I'm conflicted about the Chela-Ferrer match. As a value bettor I'd have to agree with all thats said re the terrible price on Ferrer. Its way too short. Having said that my gut feeling here is that this could be very one sided if Ferrer turns up meaning business. I think he has a far better big match game than Chela whose record at this stage is abysmal (W0 L9 in Slam and MAsters SF). He is good enough to nick a set but that will be about it IMO. Ferrer to win fairly comfortably assumeing he brings anything like his "A" game.

1.25 Unit Ferrer 3-0 @ 2.86
1.00 Units Ferrer 3-1 @ 3.45

[Peter Orchard]

you´re 30-0 up and 5-2 first set you feel like you have time to write you´re aunt in Scarborough that things are going alright but you miss the fish and chip shop and you´re aunties niece´s large breasts.

Doubt a Spanish win and you may well spend all your holidays in Wolverhampton.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict: 41 games or more in Ferrer V Chela match @5/4.

Not even close, Ferrer proves he was worth the 1/4 price and destroys Chela in 29 games. The Chela to win his quarter bet goes down the swannie as well.

Gonna side with Djocovic tonight and throw a few quid on both the 3-1(@11/5) and 3-2(@7/1) scorelines.

[Wittmann 44]

Very very easy for Chela in a one-sided match yesterday so another small profit on the day for me. Chela looked second best from the off but Ferrer’s serving was average at best and if he serves like that Djokovic should steamroll him.

Federer-Davydenko

The first SF tonight could be tighter than the odds would indicate – the dodgy Russian has a huge mental handicap to overcome with a 9-0 negative h to h against Fed but if he is ever going to do it tonight might be his best chance. He is playing as well as ever and the last few meetings against Fed have seen him with chances only to blow them – at Roland Garros the 3-0 sets to Fed doesn’t show that Davydenko was a break up in each set and that he created 17 bps to Feds 15. He took him to 5 in 2006 at Oz but in between got decimated at Flushing Meadows last year. I’d love to support Davydenko here but my gut feeling is that he will have to an exceptional day and Fed a very poor one to take his first win here. Fed has dropped sets to aggressive in your face players like Hewitt and Almagro this year and Davydenko should be competitive enough to nick at least a set here. Lots of ways to play this – correct score on Fed of 3-1, over 35.5 games or a lay of Fed 3-0. I’m going with Boylesports to nick a set:

1.50 Units Davydenko to win a set @ 6/5 (Boylesports)

In the ladies section the prices look right. I think Kuznetsova will have too much power for the younger Russian although it should be close. Williams leads Henin 7-1 in the h to h but the most recent is over 4 years old and they have been IMO slowly going in opposite directions somewhat career wise since then – Henin had prior to her Wimbeldon defeat won 8 of her previous Slam SFs. Williams has an equally impressive career 10-1 record at Slam SFs but last made a hardcourt SF in 2003. Venus will shoot more winners than Henin but she’ll also rack up much more ues and that will probably prove fatal as Henin is so solid these days. Venus should get a set but again prices look ok.

[rcgills]

When are the mens semis being played, Wittmann? There's no mention of them on the schedule for today on the US Open website, but then you say Davydenko v Federer is tonight's first SF. Also can't imagine they'd want to have mens semis and the womens final on the same day. I'm confused

[Wittmann 44]

Mens finals are tomorrow RC. Advised the Davy bet as I don't think that price will last on that. If Feds 3-0 price of 1.95 drifts up there is a very small arb (assumeing you don't get caught with a reirement)

[Peter Orchard]

You can usually rely on Kuznetsova to supply some degree of drama and it often involves climbing back from a set and a break down but she´s been ominously efficient in New York. Gone about her business quietly and that bodes ill for Chak today.
In truth Anna is a top player but I´m not sure she´s destined to eat at the top table with the world´s 4 or 5 best ladies. She lacks that extra power in my view and I don´t see her getting past the formidable Svetlana.