Tennis 10-16th September, Beijing, Bucharest (ATP) & Bali (WTA)

[engineer]

There's always tennis played somewhere, isn't it

Let's start with the ladies:
WTA: CommonwealthBank Tennis Classic 2007, Bali, Indonesia - hard surface.
Commonwealth Bank Tennis Classic 2007
The big Lindsay Davenport returns here.

Men ATP:
2007 Chinaopen, Beijing, Cina - hard surface
www.chinaopen.cn


BCR open Romania 2007, Bucharest, Romania - clay
www.bcropenromania.ro

[engineer]

I'm a bit interested in Davide Sanguinetti to win vs Bjorn Phau @3.20 - not a bad price for the old man Sanguinetti. Leads 1:0 the h2h, has beaten Phau on grass in 2005. I still think the Italian is capable of some more good performances and he'll make it to the second round at least in China.
I still haven't made up my mind, but maybe I'll be betting:
Sanguinetti @3.20 (the price is moving rapidly) - 1 pt
Phau to win 2:1 @4.50 -0.5 pts

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff engineer

Sanguietti is 35 but still looks very big here. Phau has a decent serve but this is apparently one of the lowest hardcourt surfaces out there so it won't be as effective as it is normally.

[Wittmann 44]

Two from the early morning China games. Can't see myself getting too involved this week. Some of the bentest characters playing are involved this week . Davis Cup matches next week muddy things further.

Schuttler-Cilic

Cilic has done nothing on this surface to justify favoritism even against a fading Schuttler. The German has good record in Asia and Cilic is barely in the top 200 on hardcourt.

1 Unit Schuttler @ 2.20

Lu-Pashkani

Pashkani was playing in the wilds of the Ukraine late Saturday so has had little time to acclimitaise here. As it is he is a clay courter through and through and faces Lu who has 4 Challenge titles (all hard won in Asia). Lu is nothing special but the flights will probably catch up with Pashkani here.

1.75 Units Lu @ 1.60

[Wittmann 44]

Romania looks like there are some potentially dodgy match ups as well with Volandri and a host of lower ranked South American types susceptible to inducements. Of interest

Gicquel - Gard

Gard a 25 year old Romanian has been playing mainly futures tennis and has won 4 small events in his home country this year. He meets big serving Frenchman Gicquel who had a shocker in the US on hardcourt and whose ranking has started to slip badly. He needs to get some results on the board and these lower ranked clay events is typically where he does that. Gard has only played 5 top 100 players ever (and has lost 4). If Gicquel is interested and you’ll have to assume he is then he should win this fairly easily.

2 Units Gicquel @ 1.42

Bolelli-Almagro

Almagro goes off very very short against Bolelli. The Spaniard had an excellent time in the US but had treatement for back problems against Davydenko and after playing more matches than he would have expected in the US he might not be 100% up for this. Bollelli in a minor slump at the moment but he has a decent serve and is worth small stakes to keep this one tight.

0.75 Units Lay Almagro @ 1.22
0.25 Units Almagro 2-1 @ 4.6

[Wittmann 44]

One from Bali

Amamamurdova – Errani

Amammurdova has far better hardcourt pedigree than Italian clay courter Errani – she made the SF in Cincinatti and has a number of medium sized ITF events under her belt including 5 finals in Asia and India. This will be Errani’s first time playing in Asia and this is a tough opener against an opponents who is likely to be far better acclimatised. She is W13 L 14 on hardcourt and looks very very opposable today.

3.25 Units Amamurdova @ 1.68

[Wittmann 44]

Mixed start to the week again. Should have been up a nice chunk but had a horror show with the ladies.

Schuettler and Yu both lost from a set up. Yu was twice up a break in the final set as well.

Even worse Amamuradova having blown a load of bps in the first and second set managed to finally take one in the second set and went on to tie the game. She then went TWO breaks up in the third set, dropped first one and then the other when serving for the game . She then broke straight back again for a second opportunity to serve for the match – which she blew again . She then lost the resulting tb the stupid cow (of course having had a mini break in the tie break) . What a witless and gutless display. At least I wasn’t one of the folks that backed her at 1.04 and below (20,000+ matched). Not that it is much consolation. Could have traded as well but it looked a done deal.

As I felt Almagro wasn’t too interested and despite winning the first retired in the second which took some pain off the other results. Very nice 11/2 shot coming in there.

1 Unit Schuttler @ 2.20 -1 Unit
1.75 Units Lu @ 1.60 -1.75 Units
2 Units Gicquel @ 1.42 +0.80 Units
0.75 Units Lay Almagro @ 1.22 +3.24 Units
0.25 Units Almagro 2-1 @ 4.6 - Void

ATP Staked 5.75 Units
ATP Profit +1.29 Units

3.25 Units Amamurdova @ 1.68 -3.25 Units

WTA Staked 3.25 Units
WTA Profit -3.25 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Nothing much appeals in Bejing or Bucharest (as of yet) tomorrow. Big hitters and accies hounds should be safe enough in Bejing with Ljubcic & Baghdatis but nothing else grabs me. A few more interesting matchs in Bali

Tansanguran-Nakamura

Neither player has pulled up any trees this year although Tansanguran’s form has definitely been worse (W10 L18) and you have to go back to November 2006 to find when she last won back to back events. She usually does well on the Asian tour (shes Thai) and has made the QF here twice although that was a long time ago. Nakamura hasn’t really made the leap from the ITF circuit andd if you exclude qualifiers you have to go back a fair bit to find the last time she managaed back to backs also. This looks close – definitely closer than the 2.46 quoted on Tansanguran.

1 Unit Tansanguran @ 2.46


Muller-Morita

Muller continued her excellent record against Poutcek by beating her for the fifth time in five outings yesterday. This halted a minor slide as prior to that she had lost 4 (albeit against reasonable opposition). Her YTD record is poor – W19 L24 and hardcourt is easily her worst surface (W3 L9 for the year) but Her opponent Morita’s form against the better players is terrible – she is only W1 L5 against players ranked between 26 and 50 and Muller beat her on hardcourt very easily at home in Japan 5 & 0 back in 2005 and should repeat this again.

2 Units Muller @ 1.48


Yuan-GAllovits

Yuan qualifed strongly without dropping a break in her last three games. In hot and humid conditions that are likely to suit her better and on her favourite surface she is value to give the clay loving Gallovits a tough game. The h to h is 2-0 against her but one dfeat was on clay and the other a tight 3 setter on hardcourt (Flushing Meadow)

1 Unit Risked Lay Gallovits @ 1.60

[Wittmann 44]

From Bucharest

Vassalo-Monfils

Monfils had to prequalify here for some strange reason which means he will have to play his 5th match in days today. He suffered badly from cramps yesterday and I don’t see him any value whatsoever at 1.40 today. Vassalo (of the infamous Davydenko match) is a dodgy character to be putting too much faith in at the best of times but Monfils is squeaky clean and I think this one will run fairly and the prices have barely moved. Small stakes

0.75 Units Lay Monfils @ 1.41

Simon-Korolev

Big hitting Korolve the type of aggressive baseliner that Simon likes to play – his more consistent style counter attacking style should force the ues from the Russian. He has this year beaten both Davydenko and Andreev who are both style wise similar to Korolev (and better)

2.25 Units Korolev @ 1.43

[Peter Orchard]

No more Davydenko at Betfair?

ps I assume you meant 2,25 units Simon, Wittman?

[Wittmann 44]

Sorry Peter. You’re correctit is Simon

More of the same today. 1 from 5 with only Simon winning.

Tansanguran serves for the game in the third set yet can’t hold. Loses her next service game and then the set. That’s the third from three already this week where my shout was serving for the match anmd went on to lose . Probably would have been an injustice if she won given she was outpointed but anyway.

Yuan a break up 3 times in the second set and still manages to lose it and the game.

I think I need a break for a while. Thanks be to god its David Cup next week

1 Unit Tansanguran @ 2.46 -1 Unit
2 Units Muller @ 1.48 -2 Units
1 Unit Risked Lay Gallovits @ 1.60 -1 Unit

WTA Staked 7.25 Units
WTA Loss -7.25 Units

0.75 Units Lay Monfils @ 1.41 -0.75 Units
2.25 Units Korolev @ 1.43 +0.92 Units

ATP Staked 8.75 Units
ATP Profit +1.46 Units

[Peter Orchard]

Despite the attendance of the likes of Davy and Robredo in these competitions they are tournaments where the motivation factor has to be asked and where, back in the bread and butter land, you have to ask who wants and who needs.

For my money, Davydenko is an honest man who works hard. I don´t buy the corruption crap. That´s far more likely to occur in circles where the player comes from a financially healthy background and where more spawns even more.
Davydenko hardly fits that bill. More likely outside pressures are in the picture here and wouldn´t be the first time a prominent Russian sportsman has been held to ransome.

Digressing now but just feel the need to support a man I see as an honest John.

[Wittmann 44]

More likely outside pressures are in the picture here and wouldn´t be the first time a prominent Russian sportsman has been held to ransome.

That would be my analysis too Peter. I suspect that in the lesser events he comes under pressure to how shall we say not give 100% but is left alone for the Masters / Slams. The whole Vassalo thing might work to his advantage in the long run as he is likely to be under the spotlight for the foreseeable future and less likely to be "nobbled". He is making very psoitive noises about this event and given he has won an event every year since 2000 but none to date this year I think he will be a live contender in the rest of the events he plays this year.

[Peter Orchard]

Out early tomorrow and nothing from me except what my man already posted on my site:

a fairly easy equation here: Take HT Lee against an unstable Gonzalez and take last year´s winner against an unstable Ljubicic. Take 2,16 and 1,86

[Wittmann 44]

For tomorrow

China

Tsonga-Kiefer

Two big hitters meet here after easy first round wins. Kiefer on the comeback trail was unfortunate enough to run into Davydenko at Flushing Meadows but he seems to be finding some sort of form after all the injury worries. He needs to keep building his ranking points as he will not be able to rely on wild cards for much longer and I’m sure he won’t be wanting to pre-qualify for tournaments. Kiefer has already been on record here as saying the heat was very severe and he has played very little in Asia over the last few years which makes me think that he is not particularly fond of the conditions. Tsonga is also finding his way back from a less serious post Wimbeldon injury but ran well in Wimbeldon before meeting Nadal where although he had his chances his inconsistency caught up with him. The Frenchman is strong and athletic and has a serve the match of Kiefer’s. In what is likely to be a very tight game I have concerns over Kiefer’s fitness still and Tsonga has an excellent TB record this season (16-3 all events and 7-2 ATP events) which makes me give him the nod at odds against.

1.25 Units Tsonga @ 2.22

Bucharest

Pavel-Starace

With home advantage behind him Pavel has always punched above his weight at this event – he has made the SF in two of his last three appearances and with some decent form this year (finals in Croatia and Tunisia) he looks a small bit big at 2.42. Starace needed 3 to see of Vliegen yesterday and that was the first time in 4 efforts that has won a match here. I’m not sure how motivated the Italian will be here – for the last 4 years his year seems to effectively end after the US Open when the clay season winds down. I’m willing to take the chance that if this gets close he won’t push himself too hard.

1 Unit Pavel @ 2.42


Hanescu-Montanes

This is another match where I’m going to side with the hometown boy Hanescu at slight odds against. The h to h on clay is tied at 4 but Hanescu overcame a tricky player in Melzer yesterday in 2 while Montanes had an easy draw against woefully out of form Devilder. Hanescu won the most recent game in Amersfoot on clay and with the crowd behind him I think he can nick this. He also has an excellent 16-7n tb record this year including 2 tbs against Montanes at the Amersfoot match.

1.25 Units Hanescu @ 2.04

One from Bali

Dellaqua-Jankovic

This is a very speculative lay of Jankovic’s straight sets. She is making noises about being exhausted which is hardly surprising given this will be her 91st game of the year (already more games than any other full year she has played to date). She played this event once before in 2004 where she went out in the first round in what was a minor shock. She is down to play both Bejing next week (made SF in 2006) and Gunzghou the following week (made QF in 2006) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she decides that this might be the event she slacks off on before defending points from those.

Lay Jankovic 2-0 @ 1.14 0.50 Units Risked