Tennis 1st-7th Oct (ATP Tokto & Metz, WTA Tokyo,Tashkent & Stuttgart)

[Wittmann 44]

As expected followed yesterdays great show with a real damp squib - truly brutal by both the ladies. Bartoli won the first set to love and then having gone a break up in the second lost 4 games on the bounce and the second set. Broken first game final set she then held 5 bps in the fifth game. Straight after she went 15-40 up against serve and looked poised to break back. She missed all 3 bps and an advantage. She then walked around the court in as big a hurry to hit the showers as she could.

I genuinely believe Bartoli needs serious gym work and to lose at least a stone in weight. She is flabby and floppy. When her t-shirt rides up I’m looking at a less hairy version of my own little beer gut. Her attitude and gamesmanship are also abysmal and I am beginning to really dislike her and kick myself for persuading myself to back her despite the evidence of my own eyes as recently as last week as to her crappy, gutless and unsporting attitude. Her sub Audrey Hepburn routine has worn of big time for me.

Schiavone was marginally better and seemed from the scores to be at least trying but found it hard to recover from a first set hiding. She was broken a pretty dire 6 times.

I’m getting really p@@ed of with WTA. I’d be at least another 20 points up in the last 3 months if it weren’t for my crappy WTA picks dragging me down like a sack of rocks. I’ll keep it going with the WTA to year end but I’ll be dumping WTA selections for next year unless I make a major turnaround.

1.25 Units Spadea @ 1.60 +0.71 Units
1.75 Units Terachi @ 1.72 (Betfred) -1.75 Units
1.50 Units Sela @ 1.50 +0.71 Units
Lay Lee @ 1.27 0.25 Units Risked -0.25 Units
1.75 Units Tsonga @ 1.93 +1.54 Units
1.75 Units Simon @ 1.60 -1.75 Units

ATP Staked 14.75 Units
ATP Profit +3.89Units


1.75 Units Bartoli @ 1.66 -1.75 Units
1.25 Units Lay Peer @ 1.56 -1.25 Units

WTA Staked 7.50 Units
WTA Profit +0.50 Units

[mord]

Bloody Simon, but Tsonga

but I have to wait for your late picks tonight, ´cos I always miss them

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

I’m getting really p@@ed of with WTA. I’d be at least another 20 points up in the last 3 months if it weren’t for my crappy WTA picks dragging me down like a sack of rocks. I’ll keep it going with the WTA to year end but I’ll be dumping WTA selections for next year unless I make a major turnaround.

But having said that, Wittmann, you're still in profit this week on the WTA picks, surely that's a promising sign for a potential turnaround?

[Wittmann 44]

I've made a loss in the WTA for 5 of the last 6 weeks and I feel like I can't predict the flow of the games either. In the last 15 weeks I've just about broke even.

I think its far more competitive than the men at the moment as well. If you take out maybe the top 5 anyone from 6 to 50 anyone can beat almost anyone else on a given day. Throw in the fact that new talent seems to be emerging at a far faster rate than the mens game and it makes it hard to get any idea of who is playing well.

Finally without being sexist about it almost all the WTA players outside the very cream have the mental strength of tissue paper when put in a crunch (sounds sexist but how else do you explain the massive numbers of bps and bp chances in the womens game?) and I think its extrenely difficult to predict with any accuracy whether Dr. Jekyl of Mrs Hyde will turn up.

I'm looking forward to the tour finishing in November and getting nearly 2 months free from betting. I need to seriously recharge some batteries. Get offline for a while and stop taking stuff like Bartoli so seriously

[Wittmann 44]

Full house in Tokyo with second round matches kicking off this morning. It has been a long time since I’ve seen so many matches that I have an opinion on. There are a few games I'm mulling over and I'm debating getting on my WTA bike as well.

Johansson-Gimelstob

Last time I looked Gimelstob has announced his teary retirement at the US Open after going out to Andy Roddick. He has been playing with cortisone injections for years and was supposed to be heading of to do media work. I was slightly surprised to say the least to see him playing in Tokyo yesterday and beating Kubot (who was carrying an injury for the last few weeks). Beating Kubot (rank 181) is his first 2007 win over a player inside the top 500 and his W4 L13 record makes grim reading. At his best Johansson beat him in straight sets on hardcourt twice and I don’t fancy his chances of returning many of the bullets ToJo is likely to throw his way.
I'd put Tojo in any multiples you might be having as well (best price with a chain 1/4).


3.25 Units Johansson @ 1.28

Cilic-Russell

Cilic was in very solid form round one where he dispatched Jun 2 & 2 with minimum fuss. Russell comes off a poor effort in Thailand where Zvereev steamrolled him with 10 aces. Russell doesn’t cope with the big hitters very well as his previous defeats to Blake and Karlovic show. His record in Asia is also abysmal (W2 L5) and outside North America I don’t rate his lightweight game. A warmed p Cilic should be too strong and mobile.

1.50 Units Cilic @ 1.74

Spadea-Roitman

Roitman’s has the dubious honour of allegedly appearing no less than 5 times in the list of 136 dodgy tennis matches on an internal bookmakers list shown to the Sunday Telepgraph last week – the guy is IMO as bent as a corkscrew so I can’t claim to be too surprised.How he actually got seeded here makes a mockery of the system given how dire he is on this surface (W1 L6 for the year and a career W18 L36). Last week he managed to lose in 3 to an injured Pashkani. Spadea came good for me yesterday against Delic with a lot more ease than I would have expected and is playing some decent tennis right now. I cannot see Roitman offering anything but token resitance here. Stan James go a standout 10/11 on the straight sets win for Spadea. I’d make this maximum 1.80 and I cannot see that lasting

2 Units Spadea 2-0 @ 1.91 (Stan James)

Karlovic-Becker

Big Ivo will be getting a Christmas card from me this year. He has been easily my most profitable player. The trick I think is to back him only against poor returners as his own return game is so poor that he breaks very little and is overly reliant on takling things to a tb. He has already beaten Becker twice this year in straight sets (although they were tight). on clay and indoor hardcourt. Russell gave up 43 aces in the 4 sets. Hardcourt is probably Becker’s best surface and he goes well in Asia for some reason but he had prior to making the indoor final in Bangkok being having a torrid time (8 match losing streak). Conditions in Bangkok were apparently quite humid and he ended up getting thoroughly demolished by Tursonov in the final. Evidence that things might be acthcing up with him was a stuttering 3 set win over veteran Japanese wild card Suzuki in the first round here. Beckers record against the big hitters is simply dire as multiple soft losses to the likes of Ljube and Roddick show. With the surface apparently very fast and Ivo cranking up his service arm I can see Russell getting blown away again.

1.75 Units karlovic @ 1.67

I’m interested in the in form Sela to get something (at least a set) from Del Potro but liquidity very limited right now.

[Wittmann 44]

Sela-Del Potro

0.75 Units Lay Del Potro @ 1.41
0.25 Units Del Potro 2-1 @ 3 (Ladbrokes)

[Wittmann 44]

No time for analysis but if anyone can catch them a few dogs look worth following in Tokyo (2.00 start) & Molik looks like she might be serious at staying in the top 100 in singles given she has jacked doubles for the last few weeks.

Yuan-Wozniaki

Lay Wozniaki @ 1.54 (1 Unit Risked)

Kostanic-Pin

Lay Pin @ 1.49 (1 Unit Risked)

Molik-Wozniak

2 Units Molik @ 1.48

[paglia]

lasted 20 minutes game by 6-0 2-6 0-3
for the women's tennis almost nonsense

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Bartoli should have her fat lazy spotty French arse beaten badly .

Losing from 6-0 (and 1.04 on BF) up takes some doing

[rcgills]

Agree entirely with Wittmann's comment.

If you take out maybe the top 5 anyone from 6 to 50 anyone can beat almost anyone else on a given day.

Well, almost entirely, although I'd be inclined to say top 4 rather than 5, as although Ivanovic (at no. 5) is well on her way to being in that category, I'm not convinced she's quite there yet.

On that basis, two outsiders stand out in the women's event in Stuttgart today for me - Golovin and Schnyder.

Golovin is up against Chakvetadze, H2H is 2-2 (no indoor hardcourt meetings, outdoor on hard is 2-1 to Chakvetadze). Both in decent form, Golovin won Portoroz a couple of weeks ago, while Chakvetadze has only played one tournament, plus the Fed Cup, since her run to the semis at the US Open. Golovin was runner-up here in Stuttgart last year though, and while I think Chakvetadze deserves to be favourite here, I'd make it slightly closer than the odds suggest. Also worth noting that Chakvetadze has some serious points to defend next week, as the defending champion of the Tier I Kremlin Cup (Stuttgart this week is Tier II), so if things get awkward here, her attention may well turn to that instead.

Schnyder is playing Ivanovic, and while Ivanovic is in fine form having just won in Luxembourg last week, 1.34 is a very short price. Schnyder has a 4-2 H2H lead, including a 3-0 on indoor hard courts (all in 2005, with Ivanovic ranked between 17 and 22, and Schnyder in the top 10). Obviously Ivanovic has moved up the rankings since then. Ivanovic has won the last 2, but they were both on clay. Schnyder showed some good fighting spirit against Hantuchova last week, saving 4 match points spread across 2 sets, and has points to defend here having made the semis last year. Schnyder is normally one of my favourites to oppose when she's the favourite, but I think she's overpriced here.

Lay Ivanovic @ 1.34 liability 1pt
Golovin @ 2.54 1.5pts

Also kind of tempted to oppose Hantuchova against Safarova. She's in great form, runner up in two of her last 3 tournaments, and SF in the other, but that's a lot of tennis lately, and Safarova's no mug, beat Hantuchova in their only previous meeting, albeit on clay. Hantuchova maybe slightly short at 1.48, I think. Will leave it for now, might have a look at it in-running.

[Wittmann 44]

Not the best start to the day so far – hopefully can turn things around this afternoon

From Metz

Llodra-Eschauer

Having made (& lost) the final at the ripe old age of 33 his first ATP event in Holland back in July it has all gone wrong for Eschauer who has lost the last 6 and who might be regretting notb staying on the Challenge tour where he has done so well. Llodra has a nice serve and volley game well suited to the fast conditions and is coming off a SF (indoors) in the large Orleans Challenger. Outside clay Escahauer has lost 7 from 8 against lefties.

2.5 Units Llorda @ 1.32

Santoro-Andreev

Going to side with the veteran Fabrice here – Andreev’s surface is clay where the slow conditions enable him to wind up his big forearm – his lack of success indoors is well illustrated by a miserable W5 L 10 career record. Santoro made the SF here in 2003 and has been unfortunate with draws in the alst two years when he lost in 3 to Ljube and Mathieu. He is having a nice little Indian summer with a recent SF in Mumbai and an ATP win in Newport. Nice price on the Magician.

2.75 Units Santoro @ 1.84

Korolev-Gicqeul

Korolev beat Gicqeul in 2 back in March (hardcourt) and comes of two qualifying matches and a very easy match against Starace whom he dominated completely. The Russians game Is rather lightweight and not as reliant on a big serve as Gicquel whose one dimensionality has been badly exposed at times this year. He muddled through against Serra a game that he should have won a lot more comfortably and I feel if Korolev can get enough balls back in he can make things difficult for the less mobile Frenchman.

1.25 Units Lay Gicquel @ 1.71

[Wittmann 44]

From Stuttgart

Kraijeck-Bondarenko

Kraijeck is frustratingly inconsistent but might be worth supporting here – she came through qualifying without dropping a set and has a better indoor record than Bondarenko. She also leads the h to h 2-0 (inddor and outdoor hard and both in straight sets). Bondarenko is of an outdoor win in the Ukraine but Bartoli walloped her in Luxembourg last week and with a bit of confidence from the qualifying matches and a decent h to h behind her I feel Kraijeck is worth supporting here.

2 Units Kraijeck @ 1.80

Golovin-Chelevatdze

Nothing to add to RC’s nice analysis. This looks a lot tighter then the odds suggest.

1.25 Uniyts Golovin @ 2.52

[rcgills]

Well, here's a chance to test out the theory on players winning the first set 6-0. Ivanovic takes the first 6-0 against Schnyder and drops to 1.05.

Lay Ivanovic @ 1.05, liability 0.5pts

[Wittmann 44]

Schynder has lost the first set 6-0 6 times since 2000

She has won only once from such a scoreline

Guess who she did it against ?

[rcgills]

Was it Bartoli?

[Wittmann 44]

Was indeed


The girl got form