Tennis 1st-7th Oct (ATP Tokto & Metz, WTA Tokyo,Tashkent & Stuttgart)

[Wittmann 44]

ATP - Tokyo (Hard - $732,000)

AIG OPEN 2007 OFFCIAL SITE - Home -


ATP - Metx (Indoor Hard - $332,000)

Open de Moselle - Occade Sport - site internet - accueil


WTA - Tokyo (Hard - $175,000)

AIG OPEN 2007 OFFCIAL SITE - Home -


WTA - STuttgart (Indoor Hard - $650,000)

Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG


WTA - Tashkent (Hard - $145,000)

Tashkent Open 2007 - Main

[Wittmann 44]

Not much liquidity up in either Metz or Stuttgart yet, I’ll probably be avoiding Tashkent completely. A real non field with Azarenka (38) the top seed in a very weak looking field. For Tokyo where matches start at 3.15 this morning. I’ve read it is a fast court which seems to be borne out by the big servers (and not much else) who have won it and done well here – Moodie, Carlsen

Tokyo (ATP)

Zverev-Foggini

I like the look of the quick lefty Zverev here – he is of a CHallnger win on hardcourt in Turkey and a QF in a New York Challenger in last two showings, both on hardcourt. He has a useful serve which should see him pick up some cheap points. Fogini played in Mumbai where he managed to edge Indian local Dev Varaam (just about) before getting a 1 & 0 spanking from Gasquet. The Italians game is lightweight and more suited to clay and though he is fairly mobile around the court I cannot see him having the weapons to stand up to a big serve.

2 Units Zverez @ 1.52

Moodie-Bolleli

I have slight concerns over Moodie’s fitness as he has had a number of withdrawals and retirements in both singles and doubles this year with a long standing back problem – he exited first round in Mumbai after a month long post US Open lay off which seemed to suggest all was not well prior to that. Under these circumstances Bolleli would be worth following but the Italian rather than trying to play some hardcourt events post US went back to playing clay challengers in Europe (where he didn’t play particularly well winning and losing 3) so I would think his level of acclimitisation is poor. Moodie won this in 2005 and went out to eventual winner Federer last year so the surface suits his big service game. Bolleli plays less than 20% of his games on this surface and I think will fold if put under pressure, Moodie with reduced stakes for me.

1.50 Units Moodie @ 1.67

Fleishman-Nishikori

Home advantage seems to have played a part in pricing up young local wildcard Nishikori as favourite here – it can’t be ranking or achievements as he is 90 places behind the American and his more modest record on the Challener circuit (3 finals and 1 win) can’t compare with the Yank’s 7 final appearances (2 wins). Nishori made a QF appearance in Indianapolis but after that it has been nothing special. At 18 he has more potential than Fleishman who seems destined to remain rooted in the Challenger circuit but right now I’d still rate Nishori even with a partisan crowd behind him as a modest jolly at best.

Lay Nishori @ 1.78 (1.25 Units Risked)

Tokyo - WTA

Dellacqua-Bremond

I’ve opposed Bremond all year as she has been in an absolute horror nosedive since late 2006 (she is W8 L23 for the year) most recently in Seoul where the useful Domachowska went off at 1.84 against her and I filled my boots. She seubsequently scratched from the doubles with a muscle problem in her legs. In her day she would have beaten Dellaqua but in the state she is in now the lightweight Yank deserves support – she has won 4 ITF events this year (3 hardcourt) and is in much better form than the Frenchwoman. Not much liquidity on Betfair so a visit to Willy Hill is n order.

1.75 Units Dellaqua @ 1.83

Morita-Mirza

Slightly speculative lay of Mirza who pulled from an Indian event recently with a wrist issue that must have been serious given how keen she would have been to impress at home. She suffered from this earlier in the year and it kept her out for 3 months so I’m gambling on her being slightly tentative. Morita has won 3 small ITF events in Japan and if the crowd sense an upset and get on her side she might push the Indian hard.

Lay Morza @ 1.21 0.5 Units Risked

Zapakalova-Nakamura

I feel this might be a lot closer than the odds suggest – Nakamura managed to lose to Bremond in China last week which cannot be good and she has had a few dodgy losses of late (Errani, Yuan & Tatishvlii). Zapakalova took Schynder to 3 sets in Luxembourg on Thursday which must be morale boosting. This isn’t her best surface by any means and she lost easily to Nakamura in January of this year on hardcourt but I think she might be playing a bit better than that now.

0.75 Units @ Lay Nakamura @ 1.50

[Wittmann 44]

One From Metz

Kohlschreiber-Calleri

Calleri pulled off probably the biggest shock at Flushing Meadows when beating Hewitt in the second round before going out tamely to Monaco in the third. He hasn’t played since which probably sums up his opinion of hardcourt and indoor hardcourt events. Kohlreiber has done very little on this surface either but he is less error prone than the Argentine and has at least played some games after the US Open beating Davydenko and losing in a close game to Andreev in the Davis Cup. Calleri is error prone when things not going his way and the greater solidity of the German should be the difference. Nice price too IMO.

1.75 Units Kohslreiber @ 1.73

[Wittmann 44]

Stuttgart

Safina-Srebotnik

I don’t usually get on the other (Wrong ) side of big price movements but I’m going to do it here with Safina against Srebotnik in Stuttgart – she has drifted out to 1.79 from an opening price around 1.65 prompted by injury concerns over her wrist – she withdrew from the event in Calcutta to continue with her recovery and this is a first start since Flusing Meadows. She has a moderate US hardcourt season with some disappointing losses. She faces a player who made the final in Slovenia (albeit not beating anyone in particularly in good form en route) but for a player with a very thin mental crust she holds one particularly useful card in a very dominant 6-1 h to h over Srebotnik (2 from 2 indoors). Safina is a confidence player and this will be a major plus for her. Almost as important is I feel that her big power game is more suited to the fast surfaces – she is W33 L13 on the surface which is a far better record than Srebotnik – their last meeting on clay saw Safina go off around 1.35 – the 1.79 looks massive. The injury is a concern but I’m willing to chance her with reduced stakes.

1.50 Units Safina @ 1.79

[Wittmann 44]

Nice to start the week off well. 3 from 4 in the womens and 4 from 4 in the men for a very good day…the cash machine that is opposing Bremond keeps on giving as well. Capped off with a good come from behind win for Safina. 7 from 8 overall

2 Units Zverez @ 1.52 +0.99 Units
1.50 Units Moodie @ 1.67 +0.96 Units
Lay Nishori @ 1.78 (1.25 Units Risked) +1.52 Units
1.75 Units Kohslreiber @ 1.73 +1.21 Units

ATP Staked 6.50 Units
ATP Profit +4.68Units

1.75 Units Dellaqua @ 1.83 +1.45 Units
Lay Morza @ 1.21 0.5 Units Risked -0.5 Units
0.75 Units @ Lay Nakamura @ 1.50 +1.42 Units
1.50 Units Safina @ 1.79 +1.13 Units

WTA Staked 4.50 Units
WTA Profit +3.50 Units

[mord]

Really thanks you always save my day

[Wittmann 44]

Thanks Mord. I usually follow up a stormer with a shocker and vice versa so I'd give anything I pick today a miss

Full looking Calendar in Tokyo – start at 2.00 this morning. Very little of liquidity and lots of players very lowly ranked that I have never seen play.

Tokyo (ATP)

Spadea-Delic

Both players went out early in Bangkok but Spadea’s effort was much more impressive – he had match points against Haas but blew them whereas Delic was simply dire against Meffert – he has been in a mini slump since mid year with only a win over Andreev worth anything at all. Spadea who had been poor for much of the year perked up somewhat back on the US hardcourt swing and he has taken sets of Verdasco, Kiefer and Haas in his last three outings. Even at 33 I’d still rate him a better player than Delic who when his serve is not going has very little else to offer. Modest stakes.

1.25 Units Spadea @ 1.60

Terachi-Gregorc

Feel the home player is the value shout here – he has won a number of challenge events in Asia on hardcourt and is more experienced than Gregorc who despite playing a lot of tennis in the last few years is still well outside the top 500.

1.75 Units Terachi @ 1.72 (Betfred)

Sela-Stadler

Sela seems poised to break into the top 100 if he can keep up recent Challenge form – the Israeli leftie has a number of Challenger titles under his belt and some decent scalps of later (Gonzo and Massu in the Davis Cup) and a set of Monaco at Flushing Meadows being some of the more notable. He plays almost all his tennis on hardcourt and would be much more comfortable on the surface than Stadler whose best results have come on superfast grass and carpet surfaces. Stadler was playing and sometimes beating the likes of Haase and Zverev in 2006 but while they have kicked on he has remained rooted around 200 and you’d have to think that’s where he is likely to stay. They met once before with Sela winning 3 & 4 on hardcourt.

1.50 Units Sela @ 1.50

Lu-Lee

There is no way Lee is a 1.25 shot here – they share the h to h 1-1 (both tight games featureing tbs) and Lu is warmed up from a first round game against Udomchoke which he just about edged. I’d like to lay the 2-0 scoreline but liquidity is rubbish

Lay Lee @ 1.27 0.25 Units Risked

[Wittmann 44]

From Metz

Tsonga-Wawrinka

6 of Tsonga’s 15 Challenge titles have come indoors and the big serving Frecnhman’s serve and follow through game looks well suited to conditions here – Wawrinka is very solid from the baseline but his serve has been patchy all year and with a premium on service here he will be under a lot more pressure on his serve. Tsonga looks poised to break into the top 50 and with his crowd pleasing style getting a home crowd behind him I can see him edgeing a tight game.

1.75 Units Tsonga @ 1.73

Simon-Koubek

Simon’s solidity and great returning skills from the baseline against Koubek’s strong but erratic serve will be the focus here – Koubek has rallied in the second half of the year after a horrid first six months but I still cannot trust him here. Simon is off a title win in Bucharest to add to his indoor title win in Marseilles from earlier in the year. The French players typically go well here and Simon is far less error prone than Koubek who can go walkabouts. Home win again here. Of slight concern is Simon’s negative record against lefties which surprises me given I think he has one of the better backhands on tour.

1.75 Units Simon @ 1.60

From Stuttgart’s early starts

Bartoli-Radwaanska

Going to bite my dislike of her and side with Bartoli here. She played well last week in Luzembourg until meeting Hantchova and getting in a major umpire related strop in the middle of the first set. The toys were then thrown out of the pram and she gave up the game very tamely. That doesn’t deflect from the fact that this is arguably her best surface and she has shown signs of getting over the post SW19 slump. Radawanksa got shocked by Azarenka in a high quality 3 setter in Luxembourg and does have some decent form on the surface but I’d rate Bartoli as a deserving favourite and shorter than the 1.66 offered. The tubby annoying one for me.

1.75 Units Bartoli @ 1.66

Schiavone-Peer

1 prior meeting between the 2 (US Open 2006) settled in Peer’s favour by a third set tb shows IMO how little there is between the two players. Schiavone went out to Golovin in Luxembourg while Peer ran into a very much in form Zvonerva. To me this is close to beinga 50:50 game – both women boast both similar records for the year and similar records on indoor hardcourt (in fact Schiavone is ranked 20 odd places above Peer on the surface). Schiavone has lost 4 of the last 5 but has run into some real heaveyweights (Kuzenstova, Chekvaydze). I expect this to be as close as their previous meeting and value is with the dog.

1.25 Units Lay Peer @ 1.56

[paglia]

Schiavone in very good form this better believe me no one knows

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

From Metz

Tsonga-Wawrinka

6 of Tsonga’s 15 Challenge titles have come indoors and the big serving Frecnhman’s serve and follow through game looks well suited to conditions here – Wawrinka is very solid from the baseline but his serve has been patchy all year and with a premium on service here he will be under a lot more pressure on his serve. Tsonga looks poised to break into the top 50 and with his crowd pleasing style getting a home crowd behind him I can see him edgeing a tight game.

1.75 Units Tsonga @ 1.73

Simon-Koubek

Simon’s solidity and great returning skills from the baseline against Koubek’s strong but erratic serve will be the focus here – Koubek has rallied in the second half of the year after a horrid first six months but I still cannot trust him here. Simon is off a title win in Bucharest to add to his indoor title win in Marseilles from earlier in the year. The French players typically go well here and Simon is far less error prone than Koubek who can go walkabouts. Home win again here. Of slight concern is Simon’s negative record against lefties which surprises me given I think he has one of the better backhands on tour.

1.75 Units Simon @ 1.60

From Stuttgart’s early starts

Bartoli-Radwaanska

Going to bite my dislike of her and side with Bartoli here. She played well last week in Luzembourg until meeting Hantchova and getting in a major umpire related strop in the middle of the first set. The toys were then thrown out of the pram and she gave up the game very tamely. That doesn’t deflect from the fact that this is arguably her best surface and she has shown signs of getting over the post SW19 slump. Radawanksa got shocked by Azarenka in a high quality 3 setter in Luxembourg and does have some decent form on the surface but I’d rate Bartoli as a deserving favourite and shorter than the 1.66 offered. The tubby annoying one for me.

1.75 Units Bartoli @ 1.66

Schiavone-Peer

1 prior meeting between the 2 (US Open 2006) settled in Peer’s favour by a third set tb shows IMO how little there is between the two players. Schiavone went out to Golovin in Luxembourg while Peer ran into a very much in form Zvonerva. To me this is close to beinga 50:50 game – both women boast both similar records for the year and similar records on indoor hardcourt (in fact Schiavone is ranked 20 odd places above Peer on the surface). Schiavone has lost 4 of the last 5 but has run into some real heaveyweights (Kuzenstova, Chekvaydze). I expect this to be as close as their previous meeting and value is with the dog.

1.25 Units Lay Peer @ 1.56

[Wittmann 44]

Bartoli should have her fat lazy spotty French arse beaten badly .

Losing from 6-0 (and 1.04 on BF) up takes some doing

[rcgills]

I guess really it's no harder to lose after winning the first set 6-0 than it is after winning it 7-6. All it really takes is one player to get off to a slow start, find themselves a quick couple of breaks down, and give up on the first set and concentrate on the next two. Actually, I'd be quite interested to see stats of matches where one player takes the first set 6-0, to see what happens to the prices. I'd imagine there could be potential money to be made in laying players taking the first set 6-0, especially in games where the opening prices are reasonably close (as was the case today). Obviously it's of less interest if it's Henin winning the first 6-0 against the world number 400.

Think Dementieva's over-priced for this afternoon against Mauresmo. H2H is 8-4 in Mauresmo's favour, and she's taken all 3 on indoor hard courts, but she's only just come back after more than 2 months off, and lost her second match in her comeback tournament to Shuai Peng. Dementieva in average form, but if Mauresmo's still not 100% then I can't see why Dementieva should be such an outsider.

Lay Mauresmo @ 1.45

[Wittmann 44]

I guess really it's no harder to lose after winning the first set 6-0 than it is after winning it 7-6.

I'd disagree with that to be honest RC - a spanking like a 6-0 bagel (barring the complete mismatches that you mention) generally means either one player is playing exceptionally badly or another exceptionally well. If often means someone is carrying an injury. The stats would back this up.

Year to date in completed Betfair games (i,e 1 set done) 132 players won the first set 6-0 ; 121 went on to win the game - Of the 121 that won 109 did it in straight sets.

Even within the odds bracket of 1.5 and greater for the winning player (i.e not complete mismactches) of the 40 that won the first set 32 went on to win (and 2 of the 8 wins were by retirement). You might say that is still a 5/1 shot that she will lose after winning a set 6-0 and I will grant you that but a supposed top 10 player like Bartoli shouldn't lose a game from that position.

Fact is she cannot seem to handle the post Wimbeldon pressure.She is on record as saying she feels she has a target on her back with other players wanting to beat her. This is an overinflated view of herself. My guess is in a few years unless things change dramtically she will be the womens answer to freak mens slam finalists like Schuettler and Verkerk. Its widely known she is unpopular in the dressing room and that her father's "odd" training methods mightn't be the best for her development.

Bottom line is I'm annoyed with myself for not swerving her but so be it .

Good stuff by young Tsonga to pull his chestnuts out of the fire. Wawrinka has lost from a position of strength like that more than a few times recently. He was 1.93 rather than 1.73 incidentally.

Good stuff with Dementieva btw. She looks in good form (and how the hell has Bartoli pwned her recently )

[Wittmann 44]

Actually, I'd be quite interested to see stats of matches where one player takes the first set 6-0, to see what happens to the prices.

I'd have a few of these knocking around and I'll post up later. I suspect what you say re the players being underpriced is probably correct. While Bartoli should have won there was no way she was a 1.04 shot (although that was small money and just goes to show there's always at least one idiot out there for every event). I'd have pitched her somewhere around 1.15

which means I should have laid her

[Wittmann 44]

Simon looks like getting bagelled by Koubek (5-0)

He's currently trading at 1.35. Simon looks well out of sorts and serving very badly. I'd say Koubek is very good value here. If he wins set (which he will) he should go off around 1.22 and no lower.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Even within the odds bracket of 1.5 and greater for the winning player (i.e not complete mismactches) of the 40 that won the first set 32 went on to win (and 2 of the 8 wins were by retirement). You might say that is still a 5/1 shot that she will lose after winning a set 6-0 and I will grant you that but a supposed top 10 player like Bartoli shouldn't lose a game from that position.

Do you happen to know the prices that were available to lay the players that won the first set 6-0 in those games though? You say Bartoli dropped to 1.04, was that at the end of the first set? That's 24/1 (I think ), if that's the normal kind of price available on a player after winning the first set 6-0, and if the stats suggest it's a 5/1 shot, then I still think there could be something in laying players who win the first set 6-0.

Might try looking into it a bit more closely next year.

Edit - OK, just seen your other reply now.