Tennis 15th - 21st (ATP Madrid, WTA Zurich)

[Wittmann 44]

Madrid (ATP Indoor Hardcourt) - €1.90 Million

http://www.tennis-masters-madrid.com//eng/index.htm

Zurich (WTA Indoor Hardcourt) - €1.40 Million

http://www.zurichopen.net/index.php?...&pn=home&lc=en

[Wittmann 44]

Madrid

Gicquel-Ancic

Supermario showed signs of life in Stockholm last week with 2 wins before going down in 3 to eventual finalist ToJo but his opponents Delic and Rehnquist were nothing special at all. His fitness must definitely be a concern given how little tennis he has played and he faces a player who warmed up well here already with two solid qualifying wins. Ancic has a poor record here with 3 first round exits in the last three years. Gicquel has done little of any real note in the second half of this year but he has a useful serve and this is probably his best surface and je should be able to at least keep this tight.

0.75 Units Gicquel @ 3.20
0.25 Units Ancic 2-1 @ 4.20

Stepanek-Murray

I can’t see how Radek is the underdog here – he has had a much better year than Murray and is in better form – both players were knocked out by Tipsarevic in Moscow (Murray 2nd round, Stepanek QF) although Stepanek won a set and Murray was apparently awful according to the match reports. He also had an injury time out. Stepanek has a very solid all round game and while Murray is arguably the more talented player if he doesn’t bring his “A” game here he will struggle. There are injury concerns over both players so a retirement wouldn’t surprise me.

1.25 Units Stepanek @ 2.38

Lopez-Volandri

H to h a massive 6-1 for Lopez against the allegedly slightly bent Italian. Volandri has never done anything indoors and Lopez’s serve and powerful hitting will have him running around the baseline in a way that won’t give him much time to set himself up for his tidy baseline game. Lopez was solid in Vienna last week (losing to eventual finalist Wawrinka) and I cannot see Volandri nicking even a set here.

Lopez 2-0 1.75 Units @ 1.47

[Wittmann 44]

20 views and no comments ? Last week only Mord made 2 replies to a thread that I put a fair bit of effort into picking some decent winners?

I'm getting the feeling I'm talking to myself here to be honest. I post here to help process my thoughts and get some feedback.It is fine for the first but the second is a waste of time as bar Peter there is none (and we just seem to argue ) usually.

Any of you viewers have an opionion maybe ????????????

[Wittmann 44]

Zurich

Srebotnik-Vaidisova

The big serving Vaidisova leads the h to h 2-0 (both str sets on outdoor hard) and the surface should sit her power game. Having said that Srebotnik has a decent record here (SF and QF in last two years) and a 3 set defeat to an in form Safina last week in Moscow is a reasonable effort. Both players have struggled with injuries recently and I can’t make Vaidisova as big a favourite as she is her.

Lay Vaidisova @ 1.27 (0.50 Units Risked)
Vaidisova 2-1 @ 4.4 0.25 Units

Bondarenko - Bacskinsky

Bondarenko trails the Swiss Wild card 2-0 (clay from 2004 and 2005) and has lost the last 3 indoors against admittedly more useful opponents than Bacskinsky. It would seem dangerous to put too much faith in Bondarenko at short odds but I have persuaded myself that it is a good play. Bacskinsky’s QF run here last year featured retirements by her two most dangerous opponents and if you take her win against Schiavoen (by retirement) from last year out of the equation she has lost the last 9 against top 50 opposition. Bacskinsky was poor in Stuttgart last week in losing her qualifying game against Vakulenko and Bondarenko should have too much class here. There has been a possibly worrying drift in the Ukrainians price if you take account of these things so beware!!

2 Units Bondarenko @ 1.49

[hhekimoglu]

hi witmann
sometimes I'm interested in Tennis. Today I took Melzer - Ginepri under 23,5 but lost

I'll try your picks now
thanks

[mord]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

I'm getting the feeling I'm talking to myself here to be honest. I post here to help process my thoughts and get some feedback.It is fine for the first but the second is a waste of time as bar Peter there is none (and we just seem to argue ) usually.

Any of you viewers have an opionion maybe ????????????

I know this feeling mate, it was every weekend in czech football thread, but i have to say that now is it better

that is the reason why I want to reply when i have something to say to this theme, but you must understand that i´m very bad tennis punter

But I hope many of the viewers are much more into tennis and I´m sure they have more to say to some games


I agree with Stepanek, i think he can deal with any injury problems much better than Murray , I´m with you GL!

[engineer]

Hi, Witt, today I'm back to work after being two weeks at home to look after my new born daughter. At least I watched much tennis as it's my wife's favourite sport to watch...
BTW I tried to post something when you had much work, Wittmann, and was away... doesn't really matter. Now we have some big tournaments and we should make some money this week. Maybe we need Martens back...


I'll be on Koubek today against Nieminen. The Austrian is playing better teniis IMO and was unlucky to lose from Lopez in Viena. Nieminen was close to beat Blake in two sets but fell apart after blowing numerous breakpoints in the second.
Jarkko leads 2:0 in h2h but both games were in 2003...

Odds over 2.20 for Koubek look value to me and I'm betting 1.5pts.


Also agree with Wittmann for Stepanek and Srebotnik.
Murray I still can't trust and Stepanek is a tough one to beat so I'm going for Stepanek +2.5 games @1.833 - 10bet.

Vaidisova is still a nervy, whimpering girl and missed the chance to beat Serena previous week. Laying her at 1.29 is obligatory at that stage.

Baghdatis should see Pavel off, but I'm not sure what is his physical condition now. If I find some info later I could go for straight sets win for Bagh.

And keep the good work, Wittmann...
By the way, where is RC ?

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

20 views and no comments ? Last week only Mord made 2 replies to a thread that I put a fair bit of effort into picking some decent winners?

I'm getting the feeling I'm talking to myself here to be honest. I post here to help process my thoughts and get some feedback.It is fine for the first but the second is a waste of time as bar Peter there is none (and we just seem to argue ) usually.

Any of you viewers have an opionion maybe ????????????

Unfortunately it's a story that's often repeated in many other threads across the forum, Wittmann, and often with a lot more than 20 views too

I'm making no promises, but if I'm motivated once my wedding's out of the way, I may start posting again on tennis. Not to the extent I used to, as it often took up an hour of my time sitting here every morning typing stuff up, and I don't want to get back to that stage again, but it's true that a couple of lines here and there doesn't hurt.

For Madrid this week, this is going to be the first time in 3 years that I've not been able to go to watch any of it live (and going to miss the women's end of year Masters too) . Definitely looking at going along the same lines as you with the Lopez 2-0 bet, and considering the same bet on Verdasco to beat Montanes.

For the ladies, the main one that catches my eye is Kirilenko to beat Golovin at 3.75. Both players in great form of late, not much between them in the rankings. Met in the last 16 of this tournament last year, Kirilenko won by retirement. Golovin worthy favourite, I'd say, but not by as much as the odds suggest.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

Hi, Witt, today I'm back to work after being two weeks at home to look after my new born daughter.

Congratulations Engineer, hope all's going well

[engineer]

Originally Posted by engineer

By the way, where is RC ?

Sorry, RC, just missed it by a minute. May everything be OK with your wedding and good luck. I married in March, after that took some weeks break from betting and then I got more successfull. I hope it's the same with you.

[Wittmann 44]

Thanks for all the replies

If its a choice between Martens and silence I'll take silence Engineer
Thanks you did indeed post when I was away. I'll be in portugal for 2 weeks from the start of November so am going to miss the final 2 weeks of the season unfortunately.Congrats on the new arrival by the way.

I looked at KOubek as well but Nieminen has an outrageously good record gainst fellow lefties(W15 L4) and the 3 defeats to Rafa!!

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff with koubek there engineer . The form he is in he should give Ljube a run for his money next round.

[Wittmann 44]

That was ugly . Murray destroys Stepanek and Ancic demolishes Gicquel without dropping a single bp chance.

0.75 Units Gicquel @ 3.20 -0.75 Units
0.25 Units Ancic 2-1 @ 4.20 -0.25 Units
1.25 Units Stepanek @ 2.38 -1.25 Units
Lopez 2-0 1.75 Units @ 1.47 +0.78 Units

ATP Staked 4.00 Units
ATP Loss -1.47 Units

Lay Vaidisova @ 1.27 (0.50 Units Risked) -0.50 Units
Vaidisova 2-1 @ 4.4 0.25 Units -0.25 Units
2 Units Bondarenko @ 1.49 +0.93 Units

WTA Staked 2.75 Units
WTA Profit +0.18 Units

Madrid

Santoro-Almagro

Almagro made an unsuccessful return from injury last week when losing a tight game to Fish. He doesn’t cope well with the big servers so it is not a terrible loss. He faces Santoro who is having a fairly decent year with one ATP and one Challenger title. He made the SF here on his only appearance in 2002. Almagro plays very little on this surface (career 6-9 record) and generally the Spaniard struggles indoors and on the faster surfaces. Santoro seems to have split from his regular doubles partner Zimonic who has paired up with Daniel Nestor so Fabrice might be more concentrated on singles than otherwise. In what looks a toss up I can side with the dog here.

1 Unit Santoro @ 2.28


Safin-Karlovic

The only prices I will back Safin at now is very long prices and this is one such case here – the two games with Ivo have been very close (4 tbs in the 5 sets played) and with Karlovic having played an awful lot of tennis in the last two weeks you have to figure that his massive serving will suffer at some stage soon. He is also unusually playing doubles (with Verdasco) which seems a strange decision. Safin can be relatively pleased with his week in Moscow – he went out to the semi finalist and he won the doubles. He also has good memories here with a QF appearance in 2006 on his last appearance and a win in 2004. It pains me to oppose Ivo who has been so good o me but his price looks short.

1 Unit Safin @ 2.70

Kiefer-Wawrinka

Got on Stan’s wrong side twice in Austria and am perhaps foolishly going to tempt it again today. He was very poor against an admittedly excellent Djoko in Sunday’s final and might find this game a bit of a let down. He also played an awful lot of tennis last week which could catch up with him today. Kiefer is solid enough to get enough balls back to draw the errors from the Swiss. A 50:50 game IMO with dog value.

1.25 Unit Kiefer @ 2.12


Monaco-Haas

Monaco was poor iN Stockholm last week when going down easily against Haas but a decent perofroamce first round against Andreev might mean he is in better form. Tommy does not have a good record here and at the price I can oppose him.

Lay Haas @ 1.35 (0.50 Units Risked)

[engineer]

I'm with you Wittmann on Monaco, I like oposing Haas, especially at such odds. This should be a closer game than in Sweden and I do like 10bet's offer Monaco +4 games at 2.01 - 1.5 pt. I think he could even win it, but I'll take that safer option now.

Unfortunately missed Kiefer who is leading comfortably in the second set.

And I just placed a bet for Karlovic to win 2:0 against Safin. No more words needed since the game started, but I reckon Ivo will cruise past Safin who will lose his nerves many time in that match.

[engineer]

And some women's tennis...
First of all Shuai Peng stands out for me against Bartoli, I think she's the kind of player that is the most unsuitable for Bartoli's tennis and the French will end that game beaten and with her tongue stuck out.
Peng 1 pt @2.50

Not sure what's gonna happen with Mauresmo, maybe she have to start winning again, but at 1.32 I'd better lay her against Danilidou, or maybe I'll leave that game well alone.

And the most I like Sybille Bammer to beat Kateryna Bondarenko as she did in San Diego several months ago. Odds over 1.70 seem quite generous to me, so I'm betting 2.5 pts for the Austrian.
Sorry for the short write-ups, later I'll try to come out with some more nice bets.