Aussie open 2008

[engineer]

Look now at Fed's price drifting all the way after bookies got aware of the astrological sign

Some early outright bets for me (altough the odds will rise probably):

Ivo Karlovic @640 - relatively easy 1st and 2nd round expected, the first real danger could be Youzhny in the 3rd. If serving like the last year his price may well drop.

Davydenko @130 - too good price for the Russian, not to be missed.

David Ferrer @75 - the same as Davydenko.

[rcgills]

First bet for me in the outrights, in the women's event, Chakvetadze to reach the QF at 2.625 with Sporting Odds.

She shouldn't have too many problems in the first couple of rounds, she's then due a 3rd round meeting with Kirilenko (who she leads 3-1 on the H2H), followed by a 4th round meeting (if it goes according to seedings) with Hantuchova (or possibly Safarova). H2H 1-1 with Safarova, 3-2 to Chakvetadze v Hantuchova.

Chakvetadze to reach QF @ 2.625 4pts

[Beanie]

Wow, quite surprised at the men's market. My untrained eye seeing Fed still fairly short, followed in the betting by a possibly fatigued Nadal, a vulnerable Djoko, an injured Nalbandian, an out of sorts Blake and Ferrer, a hot and cold Murray etc etc suggests there should be some mega value somewhere, so any ideas to that effect and im all ears.

[rcgills]

I've had a little bit each way on Gasquet at 67, Beanie (I know there are better prices around, but not anywhere where I've got spare funds, so I'll take that at Sporting Odds). He's in the bottom half of the draw, so would avoid Federer until the final, and his quarter of the draw would appear to be between him, Murray and Davydenko.

No time for any kind of write-up on these, but my bets for tomorrow are on a few underdogs - don't like backing short-priced favourites in the opening rounds, as I always manage to find the shock result So tomorrow I've gone with a few players I think are maybe over-priced for their matches: Benneteau (3.55), Koubek (3.25), Serra (2.22) and Tsonga (5.9) in the mens, and Cibulkova (2.75) in the womens. 1pt each on all of the mens games, plus 6 x 0.1pt doubles, and 2pts on Cibulkova.

[Wittmann 44]

Fcuking computer – fcuked all my previews and my ante post (Bagy e/w at 100/1 my sole bet ). Piece of wank.


Capdeville – Klein

Capdeville 1.75 Units @ 1.45

Schuttler – Clement

1.25 Units CShuettler @ 2.20

Lu-Gicquel

Lay Gicquel @ 1.60

Zvereve-Robredo

0.25 Units Zverev @ 4.90

Vliegen-Patience

2 Units Vliegen @ 4/11 (Ladbrokes)

Tsonga-Murray

0.50 units Tsonga @ 6.30

Young – Berrer

Lay Berrer @ 1.75 1.25 Units Risked

Anderson-Falla

Lay Falla 1 Unit Risked @ 1.44

Acasuso-Mahut

1.25 Units Acasuso @ 2.24

Breziki-Warburg

1 Unit Breziki @ 2.46

Odesnik-Lopez

0.50 Units Odesnik @ 3.25

Serra-Mayer

1.25 Unit Serra @ 2.22

[Viktor]

Hello mates,

Krajicek - Morigami

Krajicek has big troubles with her wrist and can't play full-value backhand. She want to start only because it is Grand Slam but she will be very careful. Morigami won their only H2H 2 years ago on indoor hard and in this situation is reasonable favourite. I recommend to back Japanese by one ball bookie. Good luck

[Beanie]

Doh - just lost a big post. Ah well, my bunch for interest are(not all matched):

Womens:

Li @ 370
Peer @ 400
Schnyder @ 450
Radwanska @ 250
Srebotnik @ 830
Venus @ 9.60

Mens:

Baghdatis @ 95
Gasquet @ 95
Davydenko @ 110
Niemenen @ 850
Guccione @ 540
Kohlschreiber @ 650
Stepanek @ 560
Berdych @ 130
Safin @ 150
Youznhy @ 85
Wawrinka @ 610

All the best folks

[Wittmann 44]

From the 12.00 ladies starts


Dubois – Gallovits

Gallovits did well in making the QF in Hobart last week but she looks very short here tonight. Dubois plays a lot of ITF hardcourt and made 4 finals on hardcourt last year at that level. Gallovcits is operating at a higher level but on this surface this could be closer than the odds would suggest.

1.25 Units Dubois @ 2.24

Paszek-Jankovic

As I mentioned last week Jankovic is looking very vulnerable IMO as her schedule from 2007 looks to have left her in very poor shape. Even in top form this looks a big banana skin as the big hitting Paszek is coming into decent form with recent wins over Kirilenko and Pin. She made 4th rounds in SW19 and the US Open last season and a less than fit Jankovic might be pushed very hard here. Will be watching this one. 1 Ball book.

0.50 Units Paszek @ 5

More to follow

[Wittmann 44]

From the later starts

Craybas-Chan

Going to side with the veteran Yank Craybas here as recent losses by Chan to Aloro and Wheeler look poor and this should be a fairly close game. Craybas has had terrible draws here in recent years so will fancy her chances to at least make the second round in a winnable looking match up.

1.25 Units Craybas @ 2.12

Dellaqua-Knapp

Hometown girl Dellaqua comes into this event with some decent form having made the QF in Hobart and pused Vaidisova hard in the Gold Coast event. Knapp is a clay lover and doesn’t go well Down Under. Nice looking price on the Aussie girl.

2 Units Dellaquq @ 1.78

Hsieh-Zapakalova

Hiseh came through qualifying fairly well and Zapakalova seems to have gone of the boil somewhat. The Taipei girl better known in the doubles world but worth a poke here IMO

1 Unit Hsieh @ 2.34

Cibulkova-Pennetta

Pennetta shook of last seasons Moya problems with a fine end to 2007 and she started 2008 well – she made the SF in Hobart before a foot injury rendered her fairly ineffective in the final. She subsequently pulled from the Doubles there and word in forum land is that she has not been able to train. Cibulkova who beat her on clay in the middle of her summer slump has started 2007 well too and with Pennettta going out 4 of the last 5 times in the first round here and with a possible foot problem the Slovak girl looks nice value.

1.50 Units Cibulkova @ 2.64

Brengle-Pereybynis

Brnegle looks one to watch in the future – Finalist in the juniors in Oz and Wimbeldon last year and a few good ITF performances during the summer. Form that makes quotes of well over 4 look very big.Perebynis hasn’t really made the leap to the WTA tour that her form on the ITF circuit looked like warranting and while a worthy jolly looks too short fgor me.

Lay Perrebynis @ 1.30 0.50 Units Risked

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff RC. Nice looking results there. If Koubek can carry it home against Moya will be very nice indeed.

For me

Very very depressing . Small profit after hours of research yesterday. Should have been much better than it was – two things that always happens in Slams to me are (1) I never seem to win when a match I’ve backed goes to 5 sets and (2) if someone is going to lose from 2-0 up I will back him.

Evidence for the prosecution

Case 1 - 5 games I backed went to 5 sets. Every last freaking one of them lost!! EVERY LAST FCUKING ONE!!!!!!!!!!!

Lu (lost from 2-1 up)
Zverev (lost from 2-0 up)
Acasuso lost
Anderson lost (from 2-1)
Breziki lost

Case 2

Zverev – a break and 2 sets up still manages to lose the game

The ladies too should have been much much better – Pzaszek had Jankovic on the rack for long periods in a messy but very watchable game. She blew 3 match points at the death when her lack of experience told. Managed to trade a decent profit on that one but should have been a week setting up profit instead. Cibulkova was up a break in the final set and Dubois was serving for the first set at one point and blew two set points before crumbling.

Capdeville 1.75 Units @ 1.45 +0.75 Units
1.25 Units CShuettler @ 2.20 +1.43 Units
Lay Gicquel @ 1.60 1 Unit -1 Unit
0.25 Units Zverev @ 4.90 -0.25 units
2 Units Vliegen @ 4/11 (Ladbrokes) +0.73 Units
0.50 units Tsonga @ 6.30 +2.52 Units
Lay Berrer @ 1.75 1.25 Units Risked -1.75 Units
Lay Falla 1 Unit Risked @ 1.44 -1 Unit
1.25 Units Acasuso @ 2.24 -1.25 Units
1 Unit Breziki @ 2.46 -1 Unit
0.50 Units Odesnik @ 3.2 -0.50 Units
1.25 Unit Serra @ 2.22 +1.45 Units

ATP Staked 13.00 Units
ATP Profit +0.62 Units

1.25 Units Dubois @ 2.24 -1.25 Units
0.50 Units Paszek @ 5 -0.50 Units
1.25 Units Craybas @ 2.12 +1.33 Units
2 Units Dellaquq @ 1.78 +1.48 Units
1 Unit Hsieh @ 2.34 +1.27 Units
1.50 Units Cibulkova @ 2.64 -1.50 Units
Lay Perrebynis @ 1.30 0.50 Units Risked -0.50 Units

WTA Staked 8.00 Units
WTA Profit +0.34 Units

[engineer]

Great shot with Tsonga, Wittmann and RC

Witt, I have the same problem when it comes to a tiebreak - players I've backed lose it in more than 90% of the cases, I think.
And I've lost hope that will change .

Some outright bets in the women's event:

Amelie Mauresmo @70

Flavia Pennetta @1000

Svetlana Kuznetsova @16

And I do like Betfair's offer for J. Henin to lose a set @1.25 at the mo and the price is rising.
Shall ask for 1.4 later, may get matched.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Good stuff RC. Nice looking results there. If Koubek can carry it home against Moya will be very nice indeed.

Cheers Wittmann, it did turn into a pretty nice day, despite my biggest bet (Cibulkova) losing.

Should clarify actually that the prices I mentioned in my post were for the singles, as they were the best prices I had. The doubles were with Sporting Odds, so the price on some of the players were lower for the doubles. Still worked out to just short of 8pts profit though.

2pts on Troicki against Nadal to celebrate . Just been watching some of the first set, he's not been at all overawed, broke Nadal when he was serving for the set, before losing it in a tiebreak, but he's a break up in the second and has won more points overall in the match than Nadal so far (59-56 at the time of writing).

[Martens]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Cheers Wittmann, it did turn into a pretty nice day, despite my biggest bet (Cibulkova) losing.

Should clarify actually that the prices I mentioned in my post were for the singles, as they were the best prices I had. The doubles were with Sporting Odds, so the price on some of the players were lower for the doubles. Still worked out to just short of 8pts profit though.

2pts on Troicki against Nadal to celebrate . Just been watching some of the first set, he's not been at all overawed, broke Nadal when he was serving for the set, before losing it in a tiebreak, but he's a break up in the second and has won more points overall in the match than Nadal so far (59-56 at the time of writing).

thanks god i watched this match also, (exept from first set)nadal is in great form, i rate one player as top form when i see the minimum human being number of unforced errors,i am not sure exactly how many he did, because i was impressed once again by his game,and i am confident that nadal will go far here in this tournament

[Martens]

tsonga??

hehehe., murray is out, upsets are on every day basis,

Isner to beat santoro

massu to beat blake

safin to lose at least a set ( defeat is not out of question also)

johansson to beat baghdatis, probable upsets for tomorrow early morning ( european time) games

for me, as usual, i am out of any bet placing, just watch the games and have fun

cheers

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Martens

although i never take seriously the pre-slam tournaments, i am confident that rafael nadal has zero chances here in aussie open, he was so bad and terrible yesterday in final against youznhy,no chance

Originally Posted by Martens

thanks god i watched this match also, (exept from first set)nadal is in great form, i rate one player as top form when i see the minimum human being number of unforced errors,i am not sure exactly how many he did, because i was impressed once again by his game,and i am confident that nadal will go far here in this tournament

Not sure I ever will quite understand you, Martens. You always tend to veer wildly from one extreme to another, there never seems to be any middle ground. Nadal loses (admittedly heavily) to the world no. 14 and you say he has zero chances in the Australian Open, then he scrapes past the world no. 126, struggling for the first 2 sets, and all of a sudden you've decided he'll go far again.