Aussie open 2008

[Wittmann 44]

For tonight – 12.00 starts first. More to follow:


ATP

Haase-Ljubcic

Going to oppose the Lube for small stakes. This is a square of between two fairly similar players with Lube being a more refined version of Haase. Both have big serves and both are fairly immobile. Lube has the big match experience that should see him through but I still think the Croat is a force in decline and for smalls takes I’m backing the Dutchman.

0.25 units Haase @ 4.10

Kendrick-Delic

These two challenge tour regulars have met 7 times and Delic holds a significant 5-2 advanatge and has won the last 4. On hardcourt they are tied 1 apiece> Delic has also played qualifying (through 3 in straight sets). Kendrick did end 2007 very strongly with two challenge wins and a final appearance while Delic struggled badly in the second half of 2007. Both men boast very similar Slam records (stumles at qualifying level usual) and while Kendricks lack of play since November is worrying he still looks too long here.

0.75 Units Kendrick @ 2.64

Sirianni-Tipsarevic

Sirianni at the ripe old age of 32 made his first ATP SF in Adelaide before going out to the eventual winner Llodra. He has been playing mainly futures in Australia and doubles but seems bullish coming into this if his press conferences are to be believed. Tipsarevic has been struggling with injuries and illnesses and will surely suffer from a lcak of preaparttion for this. Sirianni probably won’t have enough to win this but his decent serve should keep him close and with a hometown crowd behind him this looks an ideal match to trade.

0.75 Units SIrianni @ 3.00

WTA

Fernandez-Cornet

Fernandez is a former French Open SF whose career has been ruined by injury. She is currently on her 3rd or 4th comeback. She is actually on a decent run having finshed 2007. This is her first start of 2007 and she faces Cornet (junior French open Champion) who played only one match in 2008 which was a thrashing by Savchuk . Cornet finished 2007 going backwards and at the prices I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Frenandez can pull a mini shock.

0.50 Units Fernandez @ 3.50

Peng-Klebynova

This looks a bit of a mismatch to me. Peng has some decent results on this surface and won the Watsons Water Challenge in Hong Kong last week. The young Russian has the benefit of 3 qualifying matches but the Chinese looks far too experienced here. I’d price her around 1.50 maximum for this so the Betfair price looks big to me.

2 Units Peng @ 1.60

Wozniki-Dulko

Dulko looks vulnerable here as she has scatched from her last two matchs with leg and ankle problems. Woznikai made the junior final here in 2006 and played creditably enough in Hong Kong to suggest that she can avail of Dulko’s fitness problems.

1.25 units Wozniaki @ 1.92

[rcgills]

Four for me tomorrow, all from the women's event:

Garbin to beat Daniilidou @ 3.3

Daniilidou has made an excellent start to 2008, but wonder whether it may cost her here. Made the final of both the singles (which she won by w/o) and the doubles (lost) in Hobart last week, so that's a lot of tennis. The longer this game goes on, the more you'd expect last week's efforts to take their toll on Daniilidou.

Govortsova to beat Pironkova (a real Bulgarian, Wittmann ) @ 2.6

Pironkova is the favourite for this one, and I'm not sure I can see why. Govortsova has the better hard court record (37-21 as opposed to 21-21 for Pironkova), she had a few decent runs in hard court events in 2007 - a tier IV SF, plus QFs in a Tier II and a Tier III, and she's ranked 47 places higher (Govortsova is 47th, Pironkova 94th). Really can't see what's making her the outsider here

Salerni to beat Koryttseva @ 1.78

Koryttseva has lost twice as many as she's won on hard court, 14-28 for her career. Salerni a far more solid 89-51, and should hopefully be able to see off the Ukranian here.

C. Fernandez to beat Cornet @ 3.5

Cornet is still only 17, and while she's certainly got potential, I'm not sure she's such a clear favourite for this one, despite what the rankings may say (Cornet is 59th, Fernandez 400th). Cornet plays much more regularly on clay, while Fernandez seems to split her time pretty much between hard and clay, with a respectable enough 44-29 record on hard courts, albeit mainly at ITF level. She won her last hard court tournament, an ITF event in Mexico in November.

Going for a similar approach to yesterday - 1pt on each of the above, except for Govortsova, 3pts on her, and then 6 x 0.1pt doubles (at lower odds than the above, the above are all Betfair, but as doubles aren't an option there I'll take the doubles at Sporting Odds - prices 3.3, 2.25, 1.615 and 2.875 respectively ).

[Wittmann 44]

The 1.15 and on starts

ATP

Lee-Guccione

Too short price on Guccione for a number of reasons IMO – (1) while he is coming of a final appearance in Sydeny that could be a double edged sword in that it will have surely drained him somewhat (he also made the doubles final in Adelaide the previous week) , (2) Lee leads the h to h 2-0 (both 2004) and (3) his record here is very poor (Lee’s is scarcely better admittedly). At the price Lee looks too big. One for trading if yiu can stay up as this could go to 4 or 5. Guccione has been backed down all day but I’m hoping Lee can keep this tight.

0.50 Units Lee @ 3.10

Cilic-Almagro

Cilic seems to be transferring his clay form to hardcourt in the last few months – a SF in St.Petersburg at year end was followed by a good SF showing in Chennai and a subsequent straight sets defeat to eventual winner Kohlsreiber iN Auckland looks a decent effort now. Almagro boasts a negative record on hardcourt and is yet to go beyond round 1 in 3 attempts. Cilic’s serve should give him the decuisive edge here

1.25 Units Cilic @ 1.96

Gremelmayer-Roitman

The dodgy Roitman has never done anything on clay – he is 1-4 here and a 19-37 record on the surface says it all. Gremelmayer surprisingly made the 3rd round here in 2006 and came through 3 qualifiers for his second bite at the event. He has taken sets of decent players like Bagdathis in the not so distant past and has a much better record (Challenger) than Roitman on this surface. Roitman will probably be content to collect his first round cheque and get back home to Argentina to put him some clay work for the South American clay season.

1.75 Units Gremelmayer @ 1.74

Querry-Rochus

Rochus suffering from shoulder problems. The Querry serve if firing should make it tough on the Belgian if he is not 100%

1 Unit Querry @ 2.22

Safin-Gulbis

I swore that I would stop backing Safin in the middle of last year when a change of coach heralded another false dawn. I’ve since avoided him but I find myself pulling the trigger here tonight. The flaky Russian loves it here – he has done well here even when in terrible form and he seemed in decent enough form last week in Kooyang. Gulbis has the potential to go far if he can get some consistency but recent tame efforts against Tsonga and Golubev suggest confidence might be low. Never back a flaky Russian unless he is playing a flaky Latvian my thinking here.

1.50 Units Safin @ 1.52

Luczak-Zabaleta

Zabaleta hasn’t won on hardcourt in nearly 3 years and lost last week in Brazil to a player ranked 800 on the surface which is hardly ideal warmup. Another player like Roitman waiting on a first round cheque and the South American clay swing to start. Luczak will have crowd advantage and has made the 3rd round here twice in the last 5 years.

2.25 Units Luczak @1.38

Malisse-Tursonov

A draw neither man wanted with Malisse a very dangerous floater. He leads the h to h 2-0 and Tursonov might be feeling the effects of a lot of tennis. Malisse looks like he is getting back to his best after an injury ruined 2007 and he has only once not gotten beyond the first round here in nine efforts. Going to chance the X-man in a tight looking game.

1 Unit Malisse @ 2.58

Russell-Fogini

Fogini has had major injury issues of late and has withdrawn or rtired from his last two events and should be easy meat for Russell who plays mainly on the hardcourt Challenger circuit. The Yank jourenyman has a decent serve and took Hewitt to 5 here last year.

1.50 Units Russell @ 1.34

[Wittmann 44]

WTA

Lots of small stakes big odds shouts for some reason

Govortsova-Pirinkova

Going to side with RC here for much the same reasons although the market has been steadily backing Pirinkova which makes me think that there’s something we don’t know here.

0.75 Units Govortsova @ 2.84

Muller-Parmentier

Muller is in horribvle form right now but she has a much better record here in OZ than PArmentier (3 second rounds from 5 efforts) and the h to h is tied 1 apiece. Muller took a set of Demetieva in her second rd exit last year. Strictly a value play,

0.50 Units Muller @ 3.4

Arviddson-Bartoli

Bartloi looks far too short given her inconsistencies and the h to h actually favors Arviddson 3-2 (all old). 1.23 on Bartoli a joke.

Lay Bartoli @ 1.23 0.75 Units Risked
Bartoli 2-1 @ 4.90 0.25 Units

Dechy-Kuznestova

19 ?? No way with a 3-1 h to h lead over the Russian. Value play again here.

0.25 Units @ 19/1 Dechy
0.25 Units Kuznestiva 2-1 @ 7.20

Makarova-Svazay

Another very long shot here. Svazay’s breakthrough over the summer came unstuck with an injury that has her out for three months. Her comeback was a poor loss to Fedak last week. At least Makarova has been warmed up somewhat –

0.25 Units Makarova @ 12.00


Salerni-Korotssyeva

Salerni with a much more solid hardcourt pedigree.

1.50 Units Salerni @ 1.81

Ruano Pascaual-Vinci

First match for the clay loving Vinci since August and first since September for Pascual. Pascual has beaten her 1 and 1 before and a similar score looks very likely again. Pascual played singles last iN September (and was playing well) but the veteran warmed up by winning the doubles in Hobart last week. The 34 year old veteran is my max stake bet of the day . 1 Ball books only

2.75 Units Pascual @ 1.60

Wheeler-Camerin

Opposing Camerin last year was a cash machine and I see no reason to change that yet. Wheeler is at home and worth a poke against the hapless Italian

1 Unit Wheeler @ 2.46

[engineer]

Good job, guys, sorry I can't be of much help.

About Pironkova, she demolished Govortsova easily, didn't watch the game myself, but she is in form, indeed. Anyway, if I was to make a bet I'd go for the value on Govortsova also, as for me it was 50-50 match.
Bad luck for Pironkova that she has to face Kuznetsova in the next round, as she's capable of making good progress in the tourney.

For me only one in-running bet at the mo - Ventura to beat Del Potro @3.00.

Also lay Santoro vs Isner @1.09 - 8th game of the 3rd set, I don't think that match is over yet.

[engineer]

And one more - lay Safin @1.18 - 4th game of the 2nd set.

[rcgills]

Well, today's wiped out yesterday's profits Could've been much worse too, if Garbin hadn't beaten Daniilidou.

[Wittmann 44]

I keep up my great record in 5 setters with 2 losses (Siranni + Malisse from 2-0 up) and 1 win (Russell in 5). Score stand a wretched 1-6 for this Slam .

Aside from that however a very good night’s work. Only major disappointment bar Malisse was Peng who blew numerous chances in a 3 set epic.

To set that off my least favourite female player Bartoli joined my least favourite male player Murray for an early shower and some serious dogs barked

Markova @ 12/1 beats my best winner of last year by a shade and other dogs that barked included Haase (4/1+), Lee (3/1) & Arviddson (5/1+). All in all pretty happy with last night’s showing

0.25 units Haase @ 4.10 +0.74 Units
0.75 Units Kendrick @ 2.64 -0.75 Units
0.75 Units SIrianni @ 3.00 -0.75 Units
0.50 Units Lee @ 3.10 +1.00 Units
1.25 Units Cilic @ 1.96 +1.14 Units
1.75 Units Gremelmayer @ 1.74 +1.23 Units
1 Unit Querry @ 2.22 +1.16 Units
1.50 Units Safin @ 1.52 +0.74 Units
2.25 Units Luczak @1.38 +0.81 Units
1 Unit Malisse @ 2.58 -1 Unit
1.50 Units Russell @ 1.34 +0.49 Units

ATP Staked 12.50 Units
ATP Profit +4.81 Units

ATP Event Staked 25.50 Units
ATP Event Profit +5.43 Units

0.50 Units Fernandez @ 3.50 -0.50 Units
2 Units Peng @ 1.60 -2.00 Units
1.25 units Wozniaki @ 1.92 +1.09 Units
0.75 Units Govortsova @ 2.84 -0.75 Units
Lay Bartoli @ 1.23 0.75 Units Risked +3.10 Units
Bartoli 2-1 @ 4.90 0.25 Units -0.25 Units
0.25 Units @ 19/1 Dechy -0.25 Units
0.25 Units Kuznestiva 2-1 @ 7.20 -0.25 Units
0.25 Units Makarova @ 12.00 +2.61 Units
1.50 Units Salerni @ 1.81 -1.50 Units
2.75 Units Pascual @ 1.60 +1.57 Units
1 Unit Wheeler @ 2.46 -1 Unit

WTA Staked 11.50 Units
WTA Profit +1.87 Units

WTA Event Staked 19.50 Units
WTA Event Profit +2.21 Units

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Markova @ 12/1 beats my best winner of last year by a shade and other dogs that barked included Haase (4/1+), Lee (3/1) & Arviddson (5/1+). All in all pretty happy with last night’s showing

Nice work Wittmann

[Viktor]

Sharapova - Davenport

Davenport, @3,5, Sportingbet, 4/10.

Only if Sharapova would be in top form I would agree with such a small odds on her win. I know, Lindsey had some long rest, but she is back. She already won 1 tournament this year. Both these women are top tennis material. Lindsey knows how to play here as she is 2000 Australian Open winner.
H2H is 4-1 in Sharapova's favour, but all her wins were quite close 3-sets battles. With high motivation on both sides I expect another close match and can't agree that fresh Davenport has only such a small chance for win. Good luck

[rcgills]

I'm with you on Davenport, Viktor. In fantastic form since she returned to the tour, 4 tournaments since her comeback, she's won 3 of them and lost to Jankovic in the SF of the other.

Davenport @ 3.5 1pt

Rezai to beat Golovin @ 3.75 1pt

Rezai has made an excellent start to this season, finishing runner up to Davenport in Auckland a couple of weeks back. Golovin struggled in the first round, needing 3 sets against Cohen-Aloro, and I think this one could be closer than the odds would suggest.

Schuettler to beat Simon @ 2.25 1pt

To me this one looks pretty much 50:50, in which the case the value is with Schuettler. Simon won their only H2H last year, but in a close 3-setter.

Capdeville to beat Mathieu @ 6.2 1pt

Met once before in the 2005 US Open and it was Capdeville that won it in 4 sets. Also worth bearing in mind Mathieu retired from his last game before this tournament - might be nothing to it, just a precaution, but if he is carrying any sort of injury then he's far from a certainty here.

So 1pt on each of the above, plus 6 x 0.1pt doubles again (all at the prices mentioned, except Capdeville, which is at 5.0 for the doubles as the 6.2 is the Betfair price).

And a couple of very speculative ones:

Moore to beat Peer @ 17 (Betfair) 0.5pt

Don't ask me what it is exactly about her, but I've never really been overly impressed whenever I've seen Peer. Just got a hunch about this one, nothing more than that.

Dellacqua to beat Schnyder @ 8 (Betfair) 0.5pt

My impression of Schnyder is of a player capable of beating the best, and then losing when you least expect it. Dellacqua with home advantage here might just spring an upset in my opinion.

[Wittmann 44]

Out pubbing so

12.00 previews to follow within next hour

[Wittmann 44]

12.00 Starts

ATP

Garcia-Lopez – Falla

Lopez likes it here as this his 4th consecutive 2nd round appearance shows. A solid win over Chela sets up a very winnable match against Falla whom he beat in two in their sole meeting (2003 hardcourt). Falla was lucky to see of Anderson in 5 in a 4 hour energy sapping affair. Prior to that the Colombian was on a fairly poor run of form. Lopez is erratic and prone to rack up the ues but I’d have him shorter than he is here. The big hitters seem to be doing weell on a court that seems to need a fair bit of power to generate pace.

1.50 Units Lopez @ 1.77

Calleri-Koubek

Neither man was particularly impressive in the first round with Koubek in particular posting some ugly serving stats (11 dfs and a mass of ues). The h to h is in favour of Koubek 3-2 (all clay) but Calleri has won 2 of the 3 ATP events and lost the most recent match after a spectacular self destructive effort that cost me in Sopot (a set and a 2 breaks up). Calleri is in much better form with decent QF shows in both Doha and Sydney and I think Koubek’s win was as much a result of Moya’s fatigue issues and poor play as anything the Austrian done.As mentioned above the big hitters seem to be doing well and Calleri on song is one of the biggest hitters there is.A slightly reluctant shout on Calleri

1.50 Units Calleri @ 1.90

Sela-Karlovic

Speculative play against Big Ivo whose service stats wobbled a bit against the very limited Baker in the first round. He did fire down 19 aces but he was shooting a lot less % 1st serves than usual and Baker a very limite dplayer on this surface created 6 bps and converted 2. Sela has a facile first round win over Slanar but the Israeli did finish the 2007 season strongly (rose over 150 places in 2007) and was 2-1 up against Safin at this stage last year vefore getting edged out. Big Ivo was very good to me last year but his first round showing and a very tame exit to Rochus in Doha make me think the big guy’s standards of last season might just have slipped slightly.

0.50 Units Sela @ 3.50

WTA

No 12.00 bets

[Wittmann 44]

Later Starts

ATP

Gicquel-Wawrinka

Gicquel looked well in control at a set and a break up before losing the plot and having to work hard to take the game against Lu in 5. Wawrinka leads the h to h 3-1 but they have all been fairly close and the surface should suit Gicquel who has a pretty fierce serve and a fair bit of power. Wawrinka beat Benneteau very easily as the Frenchman reverted to type in a big way. Their 4 matches to date have featured 11 sets and 5 tbs and if fatigue is not an issue I think Gicquel can at least keep it close and nick a set

1.25 Units +41.50 Games @ 7/5(Paddy Power)

Schuettler-Simon

For much the reasons RC mentioned I think this looks closer than the odds would suggest although Schuttler has been drifting which as the Govortsova match showed last night is never good. Small stakes on the German veteran.

1 UniT Schuettler @ 2.34


Lopez-Gasquet

Lopez has lost all 3 meetings with Gasquet but has managed a set in all 3 and this surface should suit his powerful game if he can keep the error count down. He also has a solid if unspectacular record here (3 3rd rounds in 5 appearances) and Gasquet has spent much of his press time giving out about the conditions and the balls. A dropped set to LIndhal in the first round is also a concern. Gasquet should win but this looks one to trade as Lopez will have his chances. Should go to 4 if not 5 sets also.

0.75 Units Lay Gasquet @ 1.36
1.25 Units +36.5 Games @ 5/6 (Bet 365)


WTA

Shvedova-Mauresmo

A play against Mauresmo’s fitness basically. Losing the first set 6-0 first round is a sign that all is still not well and she has referred to being unsure as to how far she can push herslf. Should be straightforward but the hot conditions and heavy courts are testing the players with health worries and at nearly 8s it is worth chancing. 1 Ball books only.

O.25 Units Lay Mauresmo @ 1.12

Razzano-Pennetta

A square of between 2 players who finished 2007 on a high and carried decent form into this Slam. I’m actually leaning fairly heaviliy towards Razzano who won both matches against Pennetta (on hardcourt) in 2007 and who has a much better record here than the Italian who has exited in the first round on 4 of her 5 appearances here. She played a very sloppy game against Cibulkova in a match that could have gone either way (both scored the same number of points) and her serving was fairly poor. I’m inclined to give the nod to Razzano to extend the h to h to 3-0.

1.25 Units Razzano @ 1.75

Sugiyma-Perebynis

Going to side with the experienced Japanese competitor here who got the benefit of a retirement by Zvonereva first round – she leads the h to h 2-0 and while she is definitely going backwards slowly I think she will have too much at what is a fairly decent looking price.

1.50 Units Sugiyama @ 1.74

Craybas-Vesnina

Craybas came good for me first round at a nice odds against price and I think the veteran is worth small support again here in the second round. Vesnina’s serve was all over the place in her laboured 3 set win over Vakulenko (11 dfs) and she actually conceded more bps (7 against 6) and scored 4 less points despite winning the game.

0.75 Units Craybas @ 2.72

Gallovits-Jankovic

Very near with Paszcek on Sunday night on pulling of a nice little coup and while gallovits is not ½ the player the young Austrian is but Sunday’s epic will surely have put more pressure on JJ’s fragile physical state and I’m hoping that the Romanian might throw caution to the wind and go for this. Unlikely but at the price much stranger things have happened. 1 Ball books only.

Lay Jankovic 0.25 Units @ 1.11

Rezai-Golovin

Nothing to add to RC’’s points but Rezai in the form she is in definitely looks the value play here.

0.75 Units Rezai @ 3.35

Sharapova-Davenport

I’m going to go against the Davenport value players here and say that the blonde one looks the value here. The games have all been tight yes but the last one was almost 2 years ago before a younger Davenport became a mother and took nearly a year off. She looked very poor in the highlights I saw against Errani and she also took a time out for foot problems. I’d love to see her go out in a blaze of glory but Sharapova has made at least the SF here in the last 3 years and even at her best Davenport could not pull the trigger here. I think this will actually be a pretty anti-climatic affair and Sharapova should actually take this fairly comfortably.

2 Units Sharapova @ 1.45

[engineer]

I also like Sharapova's chances today. Her price dropped to 1.35-1.36, so I'll risk it and go for Sharapova 2:0 @2.10, Stan James.
Bet 365 has Sharapova -4 games @2.00 and I'll take a bit of that also.

In the men's competition I'd go for M. Berrer +7.5 games against Roddick @1.86, 10bet.
Too big handicap I reckon for the German who can keep it close in a set or two, holding his serve. Over 31.5 games is a great offer also, 10bet gives 1.91.