Aussie open 2008

[Viktor]

Baghdatis - Safin

Safin, @2,55, Nordicbet, 4/10

There is some value in these odds IMO. Safin seems to be better prepared and motivated compared to last season. He won in first round here against Gulbis without set loss. Before AO managed to defeat Murray and Gonzalez in Kooyong.
Safin is 3 times AO winner, in 2005 won even against Federer here. This is one of his favourite tournaments and his play is traditionally very good here. Moreover, he leads 1-0 in H2H against Baghdatis(2006, Indoor hard).
Despite Marcos quality and ability to play here(2006 finalist), due to mentioned facts I can't see Marat such an underdog and expect close battle and both players with similar chances.

[Wittmann 44]

Good day again today with a decent profit between the two sides

3 from 4 on the men’s events but of course the sole 5 setter (Haase) was lost ! Now 1-7 in 5 setters this time . Should have laid Verdasco at 1.35 as the Spaniard can never seem to win at short odds. Did get the overs bet in despite only 3 sets being played which was a nice little bonus

3.25 Units JCF 3-0 @ 4/7 (Stan James) +1.86 Units
Over 36.5 Games 1.50 Units @ 5/6 (Skybet) +1.25 Units
1.25 Unit Haase @ 2.32 -1.25 Units
1.50 Units Cilic @ 1.72 +0.86 Units

ATP Staked 7.50 Units
ATP Profit +2.72 Units

ATP Event Staked 39.00 Units
ATP Event Profit +4.16 Units

1.25 Units Meusburger 2.18 -1.25 Units
0.50 Units Morigami @ 3.75 -0.50 Units
Parmentier + 5 Games 1 Unit @ 11/10 (Bet 365) +1.10 Units
0.75 Units Wozniaki @ 2.74 +1.24 Units
0.25 Units Lay Chekevtadze @ 1.10 -0.25 Units
1.50 Units Korrysteva @ 2.08 -1.50 Units
1.50 Units Lay Arviddso @ 1.80 +1.78 Units
0.25 Units Lay Li @ 1.16 -0.25 Units

WTA Staked 7.00 Units
WTA Profit +0.38 Units

WTA Event Staked 39.25 Units
WTA Event Profit +5.81 Units

[rcgills]

Nice going again, Wittmann

Slight profit for me for the day, somewhere in the region of 1.3pts thanks mainly to Ruano Pascual winning. Could've been much better though - Gremalmayr blew 3 match points on the Spadea serve at 6-5 in the deciding set, while Kremer served at 5-4 for both sets (having not faced a single BP up until that point in the first set), and promptly lost the next 3 games both times to lose both sets 7-5. The slight consolation on that Kremer bet being that I actually forgot to place the bet after writing it on here

Ivanovic has just won 6-0 6-3 - must admit that when I read edtkh's post about the Garbin +6.5 games bet I thought that looked a cracking bet myself, but didn't have time to place it.

[Wittmann 44]

3 match points . There's losing 5 setters and then there is losng 5 setters

Spadea will have to be wheeled around in the next round after two 5. Will be on Ferrer 3-0

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Spadea will have to be wheeled around in the next round after two 5. Will be on Ferrer 3-0

I suspect that may well be a decent bet, especially with Ferrer only having to play 2 sets today before Del Potro retired injured.

[Martens]

Safin??

he scared me for two sets, real giant,

but....my bet won, thats the only counts

bagda won because he improved massively his first serve percentage 60% today, when in wimbledon against djoko it was something 44% or so,but i am sure baghda can play much more better in coming match-hewiit-

[Wittmann 44]

Tonights Gamesfficeffice" />

ATP

Nothing much appeals in the match bets with prices looking about right bar maybe Kohlsreiber who surely warrants a lower quote than what is offered.

Davydenko-Gicquel

Davydenko should win this fairly comfortably but the question is by what sort of margin. The Russian generally tends to go very well in the early rounds of Slams and is often out of sight after the first set. Oz is arguably his best Slam given his results here and the change to Plexicushion surface shouldn’t put him out to much either given that he hits the ball fairly hard and moves as well as most. He isn’t operating at the same level as last year but Gicquel looks a very limited proposition as bar a useful serve (which goes better indoors he doesn’t have much to offer in the way of variety. Davydenko will want to keep this short and I can’t see Gicquel as having the weapons to stop that.

Under 30.50 Games 1.25 Units @ 5/6 (Bet 365)

Koubek-Mathieu

Two players that are always likely to blow up if things not going their way win what should be a match with plenty of breaks and a tb or two. AT the prices I’d be leaning towards Koubek especially given Mathieu’s recent retirement. I can’t bring myself to back the volatile Austrian however and with neither player likely to run away with it the game could go the distance.

Over 37.5 Games 1.25 Units @ 5/6 (Bet 365)

WTA

Hsieh-Rezai

Given her much improved form and two impressive wins here already Rezai starts a worthy favourite but the price looks very skinny to me. Hsieh showed improvement of her own in a solid win over Bammer. Whether she will cope with Rezai’s power is another matter. The French girl isn’t I think the most mentally stable and if Hsieh can hang in there she will get her chances. Fatigue a definite concern given this is her 6^th match here.

1.25 Units Hsieh +4 Games @ Evens (Bet 365)

Razzano-Jankovic

I’m waiting for Jankovic to implode . So far she muddled past Paszek (made a nice bit tradeing there) and was poor against the limited Gallovits. Rather than concentrateing on the singles she instead entered the doubles as well and got involved in a 2 and a half hour dogfight last night during which she yet again required treatment. The girl needs her head checked as a matter of urgency. This is all about Jankovic as in 100% form she would swat Razzano aside but her schedule will catch her up before this week is out. I’m not sure can Razzano do it here but again worth a punt.

1.00 Units Razzano @ 3.20

Peer-Dementieva

Dementieva seems to be serving better than usual but you just know she’s a game away from a moonball meltdown. I like Peer a lot. Very competitive and solid. She doesn’t have the Russian’s range of shots but she is far more solid and I’d make her at best a marginal dog in this. Value play here.

1.25 Units Peer @ 2.22

Am debating opposing Maresmo as well but I’m not sre Dellaqua can make lightning strike twice as Mauresmo is far less a mental midget than the flaky Schynder.

[rcgills]

No time for any write up today, but have just the 2 bets so far - Hsieh @ 4 and Koubek @ 2.6. Yet to decide on Kohlschreiber v Roddick, but may well take some kind of bet on that one, possibly a lay of 3-0 Roddick. It's the late evening match anyway (Australian time), so can leave it until tomorrow morning and will decide then.

[Beanie]

In out in out SHAKE IT ALL ABOUT!!!

Laying my Baggy bet again - if I read it correctly he's got to negotiate Hewitt, Djoko, Fed and Nadal to win this(of course, could pan out differently.) Given that I don't want to be on at current prices so will lay off here @ 55s, altho would still expect him to come through against Hewitt.

[Viktor]

Very good work, Wittmann44, as usually. I have to agree with most of your picks. Koubek over, Razzano even Peer.
I watched Safin today. He was playing very good and was highly motivated. He lost that match only because of Baghdatis was even little bit better. Baghdatis surprised me, played really great tennis. Odds on Baggy against Hewitt alreday started to drop and it's not surprise for me. Hewitt's form isn't the best, Baghdatis is simply better player at the moment. I will go for anything above @1,7 in the end. By the way, I am sure that Safin will have strong season if he won't stop working.

[engineer]

Well done again, Witt, especially with the men.

Koubek and PHM just ended their match after 57 games

To get involved today I'll start with an in-running lay of Gasquet, 4th game of the 4th set - @1.14. Missed the big price after the 2nd set, but now Andreev is battling back bravely.

[engineer]

In Roddick - Kohlshreiber I can't miss the offer for over 36.5 games @1.93. Initially I intended to lay Roddick 3:0 as RC mentioned earlier, but that bet looks a cracker to me. The German has big chances to win a set at least and maybe more...
Also Kohlscreiber +5.5 games @2.04 worths considering, but I'll decide later about that one.

And about the Nieminen v Fish affair - I can't really separate these two and won't be surpriced to see a 5-set thriller. Yes, Fish was more impressive with his win over Robredo, but IMO the Finn is in much better form right now.
Big bet for me on over 40.5 games there @1.95.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

In Roddick - Kohlshreiber I can't miss the offer for over 36.5 games @1.93.

Which bookie is that with Engineer? Was going to take over 37.5 games @ 1.833 with Sporting Odds, which I thought looked a decent enough bet, but your one is obviously even better.

[Napoleon Solo]

Over 35.5 is available at 1.962 @ 10Bet, RC!

[rcgills]

That'd be even better, but I've not got an account with 10bet, Napoleon