Tennis Week 28th Jan - 3rd February (Vina Del Mar)

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Lay Marrero @ 1.53 liability 0.4pts
Back Garcia @ 2.9 1pt

Useless fecker Garcia was broken for the first time when he was serving for the match and went on to lose that set and the decider as well Covered my stake back when he won the first set, so didn't end up losing anything, but didn't win anything either, and with Pashanski losing too I ended up down for the day.

Good call on Horna, Viktor

[Wittmann 44]

Good stuff Victor. Calleri as inconsitent as ever. Bombed down 10 aces but woeful on the return going by the stats. I will be opposing Berlocq in the next round as he served just over 45% against the limited Devilder which has to be a concern.

Been a while since I had a complete blow out but all 3 matches I was involved in ended up going south. Incidentally in the last 2 days in what has been a fairly low key and not very liquid market there have been significant market moves against Calleri, Massu and Chela all of whom went on to lose with only the Massu match being close.

0.50 Units Risked Lay Berlocq @ 1.49 -0.50 Units
0.50 Units Capdeville @ 4/1 (Coral) -0.50 Units
1.25 Units Lay Pujol @ 1.78 -1.25 Units
0.25 Units Gonzo 2-1 @ 4.30 -0.25 Units

ATP Staked 2.50 Units
ATP Loss -2.50 Units

ATP Event Staked 4.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -1.75 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Awful looking coupon again today with 3 of the 4 games going of at heavy odds on. Going to stay involved with minor stakes on the more evenly priced match.

Brezeki-Pujol

Pujol (21) is still up and coming (relatively anyway) while Brezeiki (25) looks to have plateuaed at a Challenger level. Their records are very similar – Both made 6 clay challenger SF last year and their records against players that they have both met on clay within the last year are slightly better for Brezeki (8-4 against 9-8). It looks a 50:50 match to me although Pujol is definitely in better current form. Small stakes.

1 Unit Brezeiki @ 2.30

[engineer]

Yes, awful coupon, indeed. It haven't been so hard to me to jump to the clay and seems like I'm going to give a miss to this week's tourney, moreover I'm trying to be disciplined!

Just one more outright bet - for Horna @13, great match against Calleri, the guy produced really good tennis last year, even on grass, now he's keeping it, so maybe a good time is in front of him.

And more for Viktor from me, nice work chap, some really good tips since the beginning of the year
By the way where are you from, if not secret? As Viktor is a common name in Bulgaria, asking just out of interest.

[Martens]

Originally Posted by engineer

Yes, awful coupon, indeed. It haven't been so hard to me to jump to the clay and seems like I'm going to give a miss to this week's tourney, moreover I'm trying to be disciplined!

Just one more outright bet - for Horna @13, great match against Calleri, the guy produced really good tennis last year, even on grass, now he's keeping it, so maybe a good time is in front of him.

And more for Viktor from me, nice work chap, some really good tips since the beginning of the year
By the way where are you from, if not secret? As Viktor is a common name in Bulgaria, asking just out of interest.

or russian perhaps? or serbian?

[Wittmann 44]

Brezeiki wins 2 & 2. Verdasco as per usual dosn't try very hard and suffers a poor loss to Cuevas. Should suit my ante post Acasuso who should be able to make the SF to set up a possible clash with Gonzalez.

1 Unit Brezeiki @ 2.30 +1.24 Units


ATP Staked 1.00 Units
ATP Profit +1.24 Units

ATP Event Staked 5.25 Units
ATP Event Loss -0.51 Units

Horna-Berlocq

Just the one today again. Both men had easy passages here with both winning in straight sets. Horna leads the h to h 2-0 (most notably beating Berlocq in stright sets on Swedish clay last year). Calleri might have been carrying an injury as a lot of money went down on Horna has the match drew near so it might not be the most impressive of results with that in mind. Having said that Horna is defending Champion and the price mirrors what he went off at in Sweden. Finally I noted Berlocq's service stats were abysmal against Devilder and the more consistent and dangerous Horna should make hay if he repeats that performance.

1.50 Units Horna @ 1.57

Ventura leads the h to h 2-0 against Roitman and on an objective basis should not be odds against here but a match involing these two I can very happily swerve.

[engineer]

I'm getting involved today and I have nothing to add about Horna - Berlocq to Witt's analysis. I'll be even braver with that one and go for Horna 2:0 @2.42 - 1pt.

Also fancy Fognini to pass easily through the Spaniard Marrero as he's been showing some good stuff in Chile and should make the final 8, I don't think it's Marrero who will stop him .

Double - Horna+Fognini @2.15 1 pt

[Wittmann 44]

1.50 Units Horna @ 1.57 -1.50 Units

ATP Staked 1.50 Units
ATP Loss -1.50 Units

ATP Event Staked 6.75 Units
ATP Event Loss -2.01 Units

Now tonight is why I sometimes hate tennis betting

My ante post shout Roitman was up against Ventura. Having raced into a set lead he then got pegged back in the second. He then fell two breaks behind in the decider. Facing serve at 5-2 he looked buried. He then broke back twice in succession and had a match point against Ventura’s serve – he lost it – needless to say he lost the tie break in 4 .

Todays only match bet was worse. Horna first of all blew up when serving for the first set and lost the tie break in a terrible manner (7-3). He romped the second and looked home and hosed when getting a break up midway through the third. He of course lost the break. Then Berlocq having not given him enough chances earlier gave him two match points on his serve when serving to stay in it at 5*-6 in the final set. Horna took neither and lost the final tb 7 & 3 again . Belocq again served poorly on first serve although he managed 10 aces. The match took nearly 3 hours which will surely tell tomorrow against a fresh Gonzo. Berlocq is also down for doubles later this evening.

Acasuso still live ante post but will probably face a match up with Gonzo in the SF and the h to h is ugly against him. Monaco saved 3 mps in yesterdays game and looks nailed on to make the final in a poor looking half.

Acasuso-Cuevas

1 for tomorrow which is to oppose Cuevas who is an emerging talent but whom layers seem to have overreacted to with his win over Verdasco. Verdasco is dire on the South American dirt as I pointed out earlier and this will be the young Uruguayan’s first ATP QF (he is a middling 17-17 at Challenger/Futures level). Acasuso has yet to drop serve and has been in very good form (he is also 15-8 on clay QFs). Verdasco was a best priced 1.28 which makes the 2/5 on Acasuso look serious value.

2.25 Units Acasuso @ 2/5 (Betdirect)

[Wittmann 44]

Can’t stop myself here at Vina Del Mar

Gonzalez-Berlocq

I documented Berlocq’s tortured near 3 hour win over Horna last night. Throw in 2 doubles matchs and some very dodgy serving all week (albeit a decent number of aces last night) and he looks ripe for picking here. Gonzo dropped a whopping 17 places due to failing to defend his Final spot in OZ and needs a boost fast – his 22-5 record here is very impressive and with a home crowd willing him on I can see him overpowering Berlocq.

2.25 Units Gonzo @ 1.28

Incidentally Fogini has been heavily backed down to just below evens – all market moves this week have come off.

[Wittmann 44]

Have backed Fogini earlier at 2.24 (1.25 Units). Thought I had posted this up but seems to have gone missing. A 50:50 match which is what the markets seem to say now. Ventura did beat him 2 & 0 back in November but Fogini was struglling with an injury. The Italian is fast and mobile and is more solid from the baseline than Ventura who tends to go for his shots.

The market is moving quite a bit towards the Italian. I'd suspect local money is getting on as was seen in eaelier matches involving Chela and Calleri as there was some definite "non tryers" or partial tryers to put it kindly. In the circumstances might still be value there

1.25 Units Fogini @ 2.24

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Wittmann 44

Can’t stop myself here at Vina Del Mar

I'm the exact opposite, I just can't get into this tournament at all. I don't have enough faith in the favourites to back them at short prices, but nor am I really overly convinced by the outsiders. If I were forced to pick, I'd say Monaco and Acasuso maybe look vulnerable to a possible upset. Gonzalez should win but there's no way I'm backing him at 1.28, and Fognini v Ventura looks pretty much a toss up, which is reflected in the price.

[engineer]

Originally Posted by rcgills

I'm the exact opposite, I just can't get into this tournament at all.

Exactly the same with me, yesterday Horna just broke my nerves with these two tiebreaks lost.
Won't be betting on tennis during the weekend, still my outright bet for Monaco is opened, yes he's losing sets freely, but is making progress, it will be an interesting clash if he survives to face Gonzalez.

Being impatient for tennis to come back to Europe

[Wittmann 44]

I'm the exact opposite, I just can't get into this tournament at all

I was being ironic as most of the other days this week I’ve been pushed to find 1 bet ! Should have added a smiley.

Should be better next week – tennis in the US, France and Brazil on 3 different surfaces .

[rcgills]

Ah, I see You're still not doing bad at finding bets though, if you've managed to find 2 bets from the 4 games being played today.

[Wittmann 44]

I’m losing money for the week though and the Gonzo bet is marginal. I like to keep up a certain minimum volume of bets even if this doesn’t always mean maximum value. I need it to keep up my commission points with Betfair for 1 and secondly it is psychologically important for me. That makes me sound like a pretensious wanker I know but its true! I had to restrain myself from taking a handicap position on the Monaco match (was going to go with Brezeiki at +5 but managed to swerve)