Vina Del Mar Preview
Location and Climate
Vina Del Mar is the first of the clay events in South America on the clay court swing through the continent.
History and Past Winners
This is an event dominated by South Americans – since 2007 6 of the 7 events have been won by South Americans and with only the ever unreliable Verdasco present and probably not very interested it is hard to see outside another winner from the continent.
Winners taking part are Horna (07), Acasuso (06), Gaudio (05), Gonzalez (04 & 02) amd Coria (01). Hometown player Massu has a great record here with two finals in the last two years.
Most of the players competing are badly out of form (Gonzo and Gaudio), carrying injuries (Massu and possibly Horna) or making long delayed comebacks (Coria) and picking a winner here is a minor minefield.
The draw itself looks very lopsided with a soft 2nd and 3rd quarter bookended by tougher looking 1st and 4th quarters. I will be looking for some each way action here.
Draw by Quarters
1st Quarter
On the face of it this looks to me the toughest of the draws with the seeds joined by some very dangerous floaters. I would be surprised however to see either of the seeds go out here – Gonzalez and Calleri both have very dominant records against Horna (5-0 and 6-2 respectively) and Zabaleta’s best days look well past him. Gonzalez has a good record here and a very solid record against all the seeds (16-6). He should make the SF but at 7/2 a best price I can leave alone especially given his poor form of late. Calleri in decent form looks the value shout in this quarter although his mediocre form here a slight concern. He also has an excellent record against all the seeds (bar Gonzo). Horna performed well last year but he could be carrying an injury.
2nd Quarter
This looks on the face of it a very weak quarter – I’m surprised to see Verdasco here. He has done nothing in South America (in 6 events of which the last one was in 2004 he has never been beyond a second round) and I’d have to think this is one for the sponsors as he usually takes a break after Oz the poor dear
. With the quarter so weak he should get to the QF but given his record against the seeds here you’d have to fancy that will be the end of his interest. Speaking of interest Coria makes a long awaited comeback after a nightmare collapse in confidence. I’d like to see him achieve some sort of results but given his problems seem to be hanging around (exhibition performances were dire) the fairytale will have to wait. Acasuso should comfortably get out of the quarter.
3rd Quarter
Like the second quarter a wretched looking affair – I don’t know how Hernandez has managed to get a third seeding here. The Spaniard has done nothing of note outside the Challenger circuit (6 losing ATP QF appearances in his career on clay is a pretty mediocre return). A 1-5 record against the other seeds here shows how weak the Spaniard looks. I would think he looks very vulnerable here as Pashanki has a fairly decent record in South American Challengers and made 3 QF appearances in the South American tour of 2006. Vassalo is better than his shady history suggests but Monaco if he turns up should have too much for everyone in this quarter. A Pashkani – Monaco QF but Monaco looks far too short for the title at an event where he has done nothing in the past.
4tH Quarter
This looks a competitive quarter. Massu will have hometown support and a decent record behind him but he suffered a thigh strain in Oz and he faces a player in form (Roitman) in the first round. Roitman won a fairly big Challenger in December in Argentina and this looks a tricky opener. The h to h is 2-1 to Massu but Roitman retired from one and if you are looking for a value e/w the corrupt one might just be worth a punt. Gaudio was wretched in Miami last week (0 & 3 loss) and is rumoured to be carrying an injury. Chela has a very solid record against all the seeds here but has never done it here in Chile. Roitman value to spring a mini surprise for me.
Summary and Recommended Bets
1st Quarter – Calleri
2nd Quarter – Acasuso
3rd Quarter – Monaco
4th Quarter – Roitman
0.75 Units Calleri e/w @ 12/1 (VC Bet)
0.75 Unit Acasuso e/w @ 11/1 (Bet 365)
0.25 Units e/w Roitman @ 40/1 (Bet 365)
Tennis Week 28th Jan - 3rd February (Vina Del Mar)
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