Tennis Week 4th - 10th February (WTA Paris & Pattya City)

[rcgills]

Just as well that Dechy managed to win that tie-break, don't think I could've stood much more of that, it was driving me round the twist Battle to see who could prove the bigger bottler.

Dechy went 5-2 up first set, served for the set at 5-3 and was broken, then in the next game Peng lost 5 points in a row on her own serve from 40-0 up to lose the game and the set. Second set, Dechy served for the match at 5-3 and was broken, got broken again in her next service game to leave Peng serving for the set at 6-5, at which point she got broken. Peng then went 6-1 up in the tie-break, lost those 5 set points, got another set point at 8-7 (on the Dechy serve though), lost that one too and lost the tie-break 10-8

On that form I can't see Dechy giving Chakvetadze too many problems in the second round.

[Wittmann 44]

More shit . Bondarenko and Zapakalova both lose in 3 (the latter having won the first). My job is getting to bug me and I’ve gotten a legal summons. All in the same day. My DVD recorder has stopped recording as well.

Lay Obziler 0.50 Units @ 1.20 -0.50 Units
1.75 Units Radwanska @ 1.56 -1.75 Units
1.25 Units Peng @ 2.24 +1.48 Units
1 Unit Lay Razzano @ 1.65 -1 Unit
2.25 Units Zapakalova @ 2.00 -2.25 Units

WTA Staked 6.75 Units
WTA Loss -4.02 Units

WTA Event Staked 15.00 Units
WTA Event Loss -6.20 Units

[Wittmann 44]

Having a brutal week but will plough on regardless. Watched 2 and a bit sets of the Razzano match (timer on DVD fecked so missed last set) and it was a fairly high quality affair with Razzano especially solid of her backhand. The court is incidentally the ugliest court I have ever seen – horrible lilac not aided by the deep purple courtside seats.

From Pattaya

Klepac-Dellaqua

Klepac was another player who torpedoed me todayt with a decent looking win over Radawanska. Dell’Aqua starts a worthy favourite but should someone who lost last week to Sandy Gumulya (who) and barely saw of Sunitha Rao be such a heavy favourite? I don’t think so.

Lay Dellaqua @ 1.29 0.25 Units Risked


Tansanguran-POutchokova

Decent win for both players first round. Tansanguran has a decent record in her home event (3QFs and a SF) and a 1 & 2 victory looks a good effort, Both have very similar records in 2007 with neither in great form and both have started 2008 similarly.

Tansanguran 1.25 Units @ 1.84

Craybas-Vorocova

Craybas was an excellent 1 & 1 winner over Savchuk while Vorocova put out Czink. Craybas had a very poor 2007 only going beyond the second round twice in 12 attempts. Vorocova was worse – she only made the second round 3 times and only passed it once, Indeed since 2002 she has only passed the second round of a WTA event once in 8 efforts. The American is solid from the backcourt on hardcourt and against an opponent who has only won 4 of 16 hardcourt ATP games I’d have to fancy her.

1.75 Units Craybas @ 1.58


Paris

Cibulkova-Bartoli

Going to oppose Bartoli who I think has injury issues. She has a poor record here with 3 first round exits from 4 efforts. A first round exit to Arviddson in Oz almost 3 weeks ago looks bad as well. Cibilkova outshot Frenchwoman Pin in the first round and is rising steadily up the rankings. I’ll be opposing Bartoli for a while until I can get a better handle on her fitness.

Lay Bartoli 0.5 Units @ 1.53

[engineer]

Good luck with today's games, Witt. Also hope your DVD rec will be OK soon

Totally agree with Craybas, she did excellent in the 1st round, although Savchuk is in trouble, definitely. 1.57 seems a bit, bit short to me, but maybe I'll go for it later.

Also agree about Bartoli, she could not be backed now imo, even if she is in good physical condition. Moreover Cibulcova was impressive in the previous round and is more than capable of outplaying second French here.

Today the most I like E. Bychkova to beat S. Rao in Pattaya.
The Russian made a great comeback in the 1st round against one of the favourites there (Svedova) and should be really confident today, moreover she's OK on hard.

Rao beat the Japanese J. Namigata, but that doesn't mean much for me. A couple of weeks ago she played against C. Karatantcheva in USA in a small tourney and was demolished by the Bulgarian, awful play by her.

So I think the Russian who is 93 places higher in the WTA ranking could be capable of seeing the Indian off and progressing easily today.

The price is too short and I feel a bit greedy, so I'm going for:
Bychkova to win 2:0 @1.90 - 2.5 pts

[rcgills]

I also agree on the Bartoli/Cibulkova match.

Have laid Hantuchova 2-0 for a very small amount @ 1.94 too before the price started climbing, not sure whether or not to lay a bit more at the current price of around evens. From what I remember from looking yesterday - and I can't check this now because TennisInsight isn't working again (even the new link, which currently shows a screen full of Mysql_query errors), and the WTA site isn't working either - Hantuchova leads the H2H something like 6-0, but Srebotnik has taken a set in 4 of those I think. Hantuchova's been in very good form this year, and while I don't think Srebotnik can beat her, I think she can keep it close and maybe take it to 3 sets.

[engineer]

The match between Klepac and Delaqua is suspended due to heat , according to the WTA scoreboard

If I was to bet on Hantuchova - Srebotnik match I wouldn't lay 2:0 for Daniela, maybe Srebotnik could keep it close in each set, but I can see Hantuchova prevailing, even if it comes to tiebreak(s).

[rcgills]

Looking like a good day all round so far. Klepac, Tanasugarn and Craybas all win for Wittmann, Bychkova win 2-0 for Engineer, and Srebotnik manages a set against Hantuchova for me.

A win for Cibulkova now would just round the day off nicely for all of us, I'd say

[Wittmann 44]

Better today. Cibulkova had her chances but couldn't take them first set

Lay Dellaqua @ 1.29 0.25 Units Risked +0.82 Units
Tansanguran 1.25 Units @ 1.84 +1.00 Units
1.75 Units Craybas @ 1.58 +0.96 Units
Lay Bartoli 0.5 Units @ 1.53 -0.50 Units

WTA Staked 3.75 Units
WTA Profit +2.38 Units

WTA Event Staked 18.75 Units
WTA Event Loss -3.82 Units

1 for tomorrow

Pattya

Amamuraodova

The Uzbek beat Chan 2 & ) in Fed Cup action here in Thailand little over a week ago and a similar result looks on the cards today. Amamuraova is on a good run in 2007 (risen over 100 places) and I think she will have too much power wise for Chan who like many of the Asians is neat and solid without any massive weapons.

1.50 Units Amamuradova @ 1.66

[Wittmann 44]

From Paris

Bartoli-Razzano

Bartoli ran away with the second set after a close first set to allay worries I had over her fitness. She still looks like losing a few pounds wouldn’t go amiss but I fancy her very strongly today against Razzano who simply looked dead on her feet yesterday at the end of her match against Cornet. I do think the Fed Cup exertions and this weeks games will ctach up with her (like they did Dechy) and I think Bartoli whose best surface is probably indoors can nick this. I’m a terrible judge of which Bartoli will turn up usually but I think she will out run Razzano here.

1.50 Units Bartoli @ 1.61

Bondarenko-Dementieva

Very solid win for Fedak 3 & 0 against countrywoman Fedak who has caused her lots of problems in the past. Dementieva did enough to beat the big serving (and very tall) Kitova but she served up 7 doubles and faced 10 break points which a more experienced player would have capitalised on. Dementieva’s ground strokes are up there with the best but the Achilles heel of her serve will never go away and against a ough battler like Bondarenko I can’t have her going off at 1.35

Lay Dementieva @ 1.35 0.50 Units Risked

[Martens]

yes, achille's heel

is the syndrom, coria/dementieva syndrom as somebody discribed it elswhere, a player thinks too much while waiting the ball to hit, tennis and all sports, and all human activities are based on the automatical reaction of the sub conciousness, which is always 5 seconds ahead of the "reality" we understand, meaning, if you think " hey, how i hit the ball to overpass the net" then you are lost, because you are acting on consiousness level, the automatic reaction is gonne...


bondarenko is very good choice, i watched her against petrova-bad petrova- and i think she can do it

[Viktor]

Hello guys,

I hope you've catched Horna at 2,6. Now it's already down(around 2,2). Despite negative H2H. This is Davis Cup, home field, strong motivation. I expect strong performance from Horna and suraly the upset is possible here. It's only first match for Almagro in DC. Good luck.

[Wittmann 44]

2 from 3 today. Might get back to a break even if I can keep this up. Woo Hoo.

1.50 Units Amamuradova @ 1.66 +0.94 Units
1.50 Units Bartoli @ 1.61 +0.87 Units
Lay Dementieva @ 1.35 0.50 Units Risked -0.50 Units

WTA Staked 3.50 Units
WTA Profit +1.31 Units

WTA Event Staked 22.25 Units
WTA Event Loss -2.51 Units


From Paris

Bartoli-Chekevatdze

Bartoli ran out a more comfortable winner than the score would suggest over a flagging Razzano. Chekevatdze just about came out on top in a very messy error strewn game against Mauresmo – the sole meeting so far has been a win (indoors) for Bartoli and while I don’t think that either player is playing as well as last year Bartoli’s service game looks far more solid and with the crowd behind her I’d make this a 50:50 game.

1 Unit Bartoli @ 2.30

Svzazy_Dementieva

Excellent performance from Savzay who looked down and out in the first set to rally and outscore Hantchova comprehensively second set – the Slovak had a medical timeout for blisters on her racket hand which probably contributed to her collapse but Svazay still served well and generally tried to dictate play. Dementieva faced a set pointfirst set but raced away after getting the first – her serve held up fairly well but at the same time it was under very little pressure. I would be on Svazay here but she has played a lot of tennis in the last week between here and Fed Cup. She has the ability to punish Dementieva’s second serve and she doesn’t seem to fear the big players – since 2007 she is W7 L 6 against top 25 players and she has managed a set in 3 of those defeats. This is not her best surface (and probably is Dementieva’s) but I am expecting a close run thing here.Trading this one looks good.

1 Units 9-10 games first set @ 10/11 (Powers)
1 Unit Svazay @ 11/8 Bet365

[Wittmann 44]

Making a decent comeback second half of the week. Unfortunate with Bartoli who pulled her back (or else gave up to nerves) when a set up.

1 Unit Bartoli @ 2.30 -1 Unit
1 Units 9-10 games first set @10/11(Powers) +0.91 Units
1 Unit Svazay @ 11/8 Bet365 +1.38 Units


WTA Staked 3.00 Units
WTA Profit +1.29 Units

WTA Event Staked 25.25 Units
WTA Event Loss -1.22 Units

1 Final bet for this week – hoping to bring myself into a (very very small ) profit which would be a great achievement after being down 7 units end of the third day.

Chakevtadze-Svazay

Both women came from a set behind to win yesterday – in Chakevatdze’s case she took advantage of Bartoli’s usual physical and mental fragilities while Svazay who was a break down in the third took advantage of an all too typical collapse in Dementieva’s serve. The latter game was an ugly affair with Svazay herself making 9 dfs and serving quite poorly. Chakevatdze not playing as well as summer 2007 I would be opposing but Svazay’s games I think are going to catch up with her – this will be her 9th match in 10 days after 4 Fed Cup matches and she has been on court here in France almost 2 hours longer than her Russian opponent. Their sole meeting was a tight 3 setter in Roland Garros (2007) won by Chakevatdze but I think the Russian (who is 6-0 in WTA finals) will have alittle bit more in the tank. Expect plenty of breaks and probably a third set.

2.00 Units Chakevatdze @ 1.72

[Martens]

you are correct

the russian with the difficult name ( i can not spell it), is favourite here, 1.72 is decent price mate, i stopped betting online, after betfair banned me for racist ! posts in forum ( jesus christ thats the reason they gave me, i wrote that i dont like france because is half nigeria, one idiot passed it over to one administrator, and they banned me)so i have only 1.6 for russian to win

the young hungarian was impressive somehow against dementieva, but this woman-dementieva- is always a double fault candidate, otherwise, with a reliable serve she would be number one of the world

[Wittmann 44]

It wasn’t pretty but Chakvetadze did enough to win it – Svazay looks set for the top 10 if she can keep this up.

Delighted with my week finishing ahead after a horrible first few days even if the profit is minute.

2.00 Units Chakevatdze @ 1.72 +1.37 Units

WTA Event Staked 27.25 Units
WTA Event Profit +0.15 Units (+0.55% Yield)


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

YEAR TO DATE

Match - Bets

Year to Date Staked 213.00 Units
Year to Date Profit +1.24 Units (+0.58% Yield)

Ante Post Bets

Year to Date Staked 5.00 Units
Year to Date Profit +3.75 Units (+75% Yield)

Total Bets

Year to Date Staked 218.00 Units
Year to Date Profit +4.99 Units (+2.29% Yield)