ATP Masters, Monte Carlo 20/27.04.2008

[frank69]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Virtually nothing grabs my attention today, so I'm going with a double just for some interest.

Monaco to beat Lee and Murray to beat Volandri @ 1.85 6pts

Lee has a fairly unimpressive record on clay, and I'd be amazed if he even keeps it close against a player like Monaco. Murray looked fairly impressive yesterday against Lopez, and the last time he met Volandri on clay, he raced into a 5-1 lead before getting the injury that kept him out for a fair amount of last season.

Only other bet I'm considering is Karlovic to beat Grosjean. Much is made of Karlovic having a big serve and not much else, an advantage somewhat reduced when playing on clay, but he doesn't actually have all that bad a record on clay - he's got an ATP title (Houston 2007) to his name and has beaten the likes of Haas (3 times), Davydenko and Robredo on clay. The nagging doubt though is the fact he retired through injury in Estoril last week. Will wait to see some of this in-running before making up my mind, should be able to watch the game and if Karlovic is looking fully fit then I think the 3.15 currently on Betfair looks a decent price.

EXCELLENT. Compliments and thanks to everibody

[rcgills]

Quite a few for me today:

Lay Davydenko 2-0 v Bolelli @ 2.02 liability 3pts

Saw some of Bolelli's 1st round game against Chela and he looked pretty good, coming through comfortably 6-2 6-2. Clay is his preferred surface, and with the doubts over Davydenko's fitness after he retired during the Estoril final, think Bolelli can at least nick a set here. Bolelli took a set off Davydenko and kept the 2nd tight in their only previous meeting in Miami last month, despite hard courts being Bolelli's weakest surface. Obvious risk here is if Davydenko goes behind and is struggling with injury, he may retire again and the bet will be voided, but I'll take the chance.

Lay Gasquet v Vliegen @ 1.45 liability 2pts

Was shocked to see Vliegen actually leads the h2h 3-2 against Gasquet, 2-1 to Vliegen on clay including wins at last year's French Open and the 2006 Hamburg masters. Not sure about Gasquet's frame of mind at the moment either, he refused to play against Roddick in the Davis Cup a couple of weeks back in a crucial rubber, claiming injury and saying he wasn't confident he could beat Roddick, for which he's been heavily criticised in France. Vliegen has already seen off 3 handy players in Pashanski, Garcia Lopez (both in qualifying) and Santoro (1st round), all in straight sets. He's made the last 16 in Monaco in each of the last 2 years, losing to Nadal both times, but beating the likes of Safin, Mathieu and Nieminen along the way. Worth a shot here.

Kohlschreiber v Kiefer @ 1.53 4pts

Clay clearly Kiefer's weakest surface (32-38 career record), and this is his first clay tournament since the 2006 French Open. Kohlschreiber saw off Acasuso in straight sets in round 1, and can't see him having too many problems with Kiefer.

Lay Nadal 2-0 v Ancic @ 1.36 liability 1.5pts

Obviously Nadal is clear favourite, but 1.36 to win in straight sets is very short IMO. Ancic is a tough draw for Nadal to get in his first match here, and his first clay match since July. Don't expect Ancic to beat him, but I think he stands a chance of keeping it close, and if Nadal's not on top form from the start, wouldn't rule out Ancic nicking the first set.

Kohlschreiber/Ferrer/Monfils @ 2.86 2pts

Kohlschreiber I've already dealt with. Ferrer faces Safin, much depends on which Safin turns up, but with Ferrer in the form he is, I think he'll have too much for the Russian. Monfils is up against Karlovic, from what I saw of their first round matches, Karlovic struggled for much of his game against Grosjean, while Monfils was pretty comfortable on the whole against Verdasco.

[rcgills]

Might also have been interested in Monaco against Almagro, but as I've already got Monaco on the outright betting I'll just leave that one.

[engineer]

Missed the beginning of the early games, may have some in-running bets there. May be tempted to lay Tipsarevic if the price stays around 1.45

I'll be on Kohlschreiber also - to win 2:0 @2.28 - 4 pts

The lay of Nadal 2:0 @1.38 I quite like too - my stake is 2pts (liability)

[engineer]

The price for Andreev dropped dramatically and now he's the odds-on favourite against Youzhny. Absolutely correct for me. Yesterday I managed to take Andreev @2.38 in bet365 and I staked 4.5 pts there.

[engineer]

To be honest I liked Ivo Karlovic's performance yesterday against Grosjean. Don't think Monfils is much better clay courter and I don't see big Ivo as an underdog here.
The bet I fancy is:
Karlovic to win 2:1 @6.2 - 0.75 pts

[engineer]

Some more to come later, just don't have more time right now.
Good luck RC

[engineer]

BTW there's still available 2.10 for Andreev in Bluesquare, I can't make a deposit there, but someone may take that offer.

[Martens]

i dont underestimate Soderling

i think he can prevail against robredo, but i am not sure if i place any money on it...

my best bet of today is Rochus to beat Nalbandian

in my eyes, nalbandian continues to struggle, and what happen in madrid and paris las year, is just a tennis paradox, the guy doesnt deserve to be considered as huge favourite against so good and impressive sometimes player, like rochus is

not much money of course, my wagon of money is loaded, and is on the way to Barcelona, all my money is there tonight
Barca to beat Man Utd ole ole ( off topic sorry)

[rcgills]

Mixed day there. My biggest stake bet won, my biggest priced bet won, but the other 3 were all losers to leave me slightly down for the day.

Federer came incredibly close to a shock defeat today, 5-1 down in the deciding set, Ramirez Hidalgo twice failed to serve out the match, he never even got a match point in those two service games.

Short list for me tomorrow of Kohlschreiber, Monfils and Querrey, will look into them more tomorrow.

[Beanie]

I watched the Fed game this morning - amazing stuff. At 4-0 in the third, Fed was looking pretty disinterested and making an UE every 2nd or 3rd shot. Can't remember the points score, but Ramirez-H went for a ridiculous raquet behind the back and through the legs shot when I'm 90% sure a simple forehand was on.

I'm not sure Rog was too happy at that kind of disrespect and almost at that exact moment looked a completely different player, remotivated and playing at nearly his best. Hidalgo should still have served it out, but can look back on that point as the main moment he lost it.

[engineer]

Interesting point, Beanie, didn't watch it myself, only the tiebreak and the Spaniard looked pretty disappointed after it. I don't know whether Fed will get together or he'll be a candidate for the major upset another time.
Facing Monfils today, I'm still not convinced of the Frenchman's consistency but he could give Roger a nice performance I reckon.

[engineer]

OK, made up my mind and here's what I'm going for today:

Strong double:
Ferrer 2:0 and Federrer 2:0 @around evens - 8 pts

Decided to give credit to Federrer, if he repeats the same performance from yesterday, then he's really in a trouble but I don't think so. Federrer in two for me that one.
It should be easier for Ferrer I think. Tipsa had two very tough 3-setters and I just can't see him resisting today against the in-form Spaniard.

In the other games I'll go for the value.

Initially liked Almagro more against Andreev but at that price I may change my mind.
Moreover the Russian has won their last two meetings. A close game and I'll have a nibble on Andreev @3.15 - 1.5 pts.

Also:

Kohlschreiber to beat Davydenko @2.86 - 2.5 pts

Robredo to beat Bandy @2.72 - 1 pt

Murray to beat Djoko @3.45 - 3 pts (what a game that will be, looking forward to it)

Querey to beat Gasquet @4.7 - 1 pt

Lets see if these come in

[rcgills]

Agree on Ferrer 2-0, Engineer, have gone with 4pts @1.63 - really can't see Tipsarevic troubling him given the trouble he had with Lapenti last round. Will look at the other games later, no time at the moment.

[rcgills]

No time for much of a write up today, but am on:

Kohlschreiber @ 2.84 2pts
Lay Davydenko 2-0 @ 2.34 liability 4pts

H2H 2-1 Kohlschreiber, including a win on clay in the DC in Russia. Even in the defeat he took a set off Davydenko.

Lay Federer 2-0 @ 1.66 to win 4pts
Federer v Monfils > 20.5 games @ 1.833

Not impressed with Fed of late, and has dropped sets to the likes of Rochus, Gremelmayr and Hidalgo in the last 10 days or so. No reason why Monfils can't take a set too IMO.

Lay Nalbandian @ 1.56

Think this will be close, Robredo finding some form at last after a poor run of late.