ATP Masters Madrid & WTA Zurich

[engineer]

A bit late, but we still have 1st round games, and some good offers today.

[engineer]

My main bet today will be Llodra against Ginepri at odds against. Yes, the French is struggling recently, but I expect some improvement from him as he started the year in great way and on indoor hard courts, so he should find some form to finish the season in style. Don't think Ginepri should be a favourite here, he's not shining with great form also and isn't a big fan of the indoor courts. If Llodra keeps a decent 1st serve percentage and his net approaches work well it can be easier for him than many expect.
Llodra @2.15 (Expekt) - 6pts

[engineer]

I'm a bit concerned of Llodra's physical condition BTW, and if he's not to finish the game I'd suggest if anybody follows him to chose the bookie carefully.

[Rafa Nadal]

Kohlschreiber v Moya

I fancy Ginepri to take Llodra.

[szczwanylis]

Nalbandian - J del Potro
Today, 12:30
Tennis - ATP


Pick: Nalbandian ML Result: Pending
Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.69
Bookmaker: Pinnacle




argie vs argie contest rising star vs good reliable one

h2h from exactly year ago won by nalby
del potro is in life-form no doubt but if we look closer he beat or underperformers (davydenko andreev ferrer unstable roddick or unstable gasquet )or just medium level players.
when he played vs top 10 level players (murray berdych) he lost
Nalby is great player when is neded and in this tournament he needs defend pts as he is defending champion and needs them in race system to get one of the last tournaments at the end of the year if possible

also I watched mtch vs berdych where it was nalby vs himself mainly when he got the rhytm and cut Ue's he was unstoppable great cross shots net play serves tactics all what you want and berdych is at his best so it was awesome to me
also motivation can be doubled by that to show who is best in Argentine as del potro in davis cup vs russia was better than nalby
time to show who still is a boss






A Radwanska - K Srebotnik
Today, 15:15
Tennis - WTA


Pick: A Radwanska ML Result: Pending
Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.77
Bookmaker: Nordicbet




i predicted Srebotnik to lose and will follow Bacschinsky was too poor and it was easy to see that no practice after us open and pressure of home public (she made qf in 2007 as unknown player) catched her she had4 bp and failed also her serves were unstable
Radwanska took care of in-form Dushevina and it took her some time but when she put gas she won comfortably also motivation is on her side as she is qf from last year and if she manage to go deep here she can make Doha masters at the end

as from the game she is patient good tactician and returner and very calm and has steel nerves
too good offer to miss



G Simon - R Ginepri
Today, 12:00
Tennis - ATP


Pick: R Ginepri ML Result: Pending
Stake: 4/10 Odds: 2.50
Bookmaker: 5dimes





magic word 'value'
simply Ginepri just flies here Tipsarevic Schwank LLorda (this match watched and it was total control from Usa player in this match at the most important points)and out of form Davydenko are his victims so far and all matches without dropping a set and he gets 2,5 odds? dont get this

Simon is defensive olayer but has been more lucky than good so far IMO
Andreev missed some MP and lost Blake in last match has something like 25-1 backhand Ue's to winners rate and so on.


also H2h is from 2006 where both were unimpressive but it was in France and Ginepri won it here he is very good on serve and when needed he gets some nice shot out of nowhere
Simon serev is quite weak and his play is based on constant baseline frustrate opponent and top-spin play and this tactics cant bring here fruits IMO
lower stake as Ginepri can have "after winning vs top player" syndrome



all hours are CET:danc e

[Beanie]

Nice post szcz

I think that Ginepri's odds are because he had the trainer out twice near the end of the match with Davy - i'm not sure how serious any niggle was(he appeared to be moving fine) but the rallies with Simon are sure to be pretty long and so there would have questions over Ginepri's stamina in a 3 setter today.

Nalbandian's 3rd set v Berdych yesterday was superb, best tennis i've seen at the Masters this week. He really seems keyed in for this week(and after last year's win, why not?)

[Rafa Nadal]

Nadal

Murray

Nalbandian

Monfils

All to win, 5-1 bet 365.

[engineer]

Can't really see a reason not to back the Frenchman Simon against big Ivo tonight. I just can't agree that Karlovic is the favourite in this game, despite his impressive success yesterday. Simon is one of the most boring players in the ATP world, indeed but he's pretty consistent also. Obviously his bad period is behind him and he's showing some good tennis in Madrid. He even tries to go for winners and keeps the number of the unforced errors quite low. This could be very important in the game against the Croat. He also shows some great mentality and overcame many difficult situations. Simon's serve works pretty well and I just can't see a way Karlovic to break him. Yes, big Ivo burried Djokovic under a sea of aces but but I reckon Simon is more capable of opposing such game style. The French had three long matches, but Karlo played till the late evening yeterday and he's never performed well on the next day after such a late game if my memory serves. He will be struggling with his movement on court. So, most probably 2 or 3 tiebreaks will decide the game but I believe that Simon's strong mentality, consistent game and great passing shots will tip the balance in his favour.

Several large bets for me:

Simon @2.50 - 6 pts
Simon +2.5 games @1.55 - 10 pts
Over 24.5 games - 8 pts

[szczwanylis]

gl
hate them both so cant see fav
equal game so 2,5 on simon worth a try

[engineer]

Absolutely cracking game between Karlo and Simon and the French won this thriller. This guy came from a break behind several times and I hope he can cause Nadal troubles today.

[engineer]

Cheers, RC

Watching an absolutely impossible match between Simon and Nadal at the moment. This Frenchman is awesome, I reckon he should be the leading racket of France rather sooner than later !