Wimbledon 2006

[Beanie]

Uh Oh - 1 set up, 1 break up, 0-40 on the Sharapova serve, and Mauresmo loses that and gets broken...hang oooooooooonn

[mrmuzeman]

Standard Mauresmo choke is it? Ive not watched but she used to be known for it as was Clijsters

[CJ Mars]

Mauresmo did her level best to lose it as usual but she won it comfortably in the end. JHH should eat her alive Saturday. I can’t imagine her being as forgiving as Sharapova.

Federer goes off at 1.01 on Betfair tomorrow against Bjorkman. This must surely be a record price for a Slam semi final

[mrmuzeman]

Nice one guys, maybe Mauresmo aint such a choker anymore. Womens tennis betting is probably better heart attack material than a double fried breakfast every day of your life though I would say

Yeah that price for Fed but the thing is barring and injury is it possible for him to lose that? Price is about right in all honesty! 1.02 at WilliamHill

Baghdatis any good at 2/1 guys? He gave Hewitt a schooling and id rate him as good or better as Nadal on this surface no?

[CJ Mars]

I swore it was my last Wimbeldon bet but just can't help myself after making a small bit today

Baghs a bit of value against Nadal IMO. Wins against Hewitt, Murray and Grosjean are easily much better of the very weak quarter Nadal came out of (Nieminen, Labadze, lap of honour Agassi, Kendrick and Bogdanovich). Baggy willd efinitely make him work for this. Both seem to be very fit and this one could well go the distance. Baghy for me at 3.00.

I've had a very small dabble in the mens doubles where the top seeded Bryan brothers take on Knowles and Nestor. The latter came through the 1/4 s via the longest doubles match at Wimbeldon (finished 23-21 on the second day of play ). Knowles played mixed doubles today but was easily beaten. My main reasons are (1)although the Bryans are 7-4 in the H to H, Knowles and Nestor won the last two in 2006. They also have very similar grass records (29-5 Bryans, 21-5 Knowles/Nestor). As I said fatigue will probably be a big factor (hotpots Bkorkman and Mirnyi went out very tamley today in the 1/4s) but at 3.1 worth a very small interest.

[CJ Mars]

Womens tennis betting is probably better heart attack material than a double fried breakfast every day of your life though I would say

Yeah . There is a massive favorite longshot bias in women's tennis. If you could stomach the shock upsets betting top 10 players (uninjured) weak in week out against all bar top 10 players and surface specialists would make you cash. I made nearly 11% over around 300 bets in 2004 but liquidity was crap and I have pretty much stopped until recently. Have to say betting underdogs in the womens section this Wimbeldon has (bar Mauresmo) done me no favors. I'd forgotten how dominant the big guns are.

[asto85]

I like Baghdatis.
But I urge caution on punting on him against Nadal .
Baghdatis is in top gear and has a good all round game ,BUT Nadal
is hungry, competent and probably has another GEAR .

[CJ Mars]

BUT Nadal is hungry, competent and probably has another GEAR

Thats why Nadal is 1.5 and Baggy is 2.98. This should be an absolute cracker with two aggressive players going all out. As we speak poor Bjorkman is being ritually torn apart by Federer in the greatest mismatch since the Texans thought the Alamo was a good place to set up camp against the Mexicans

[mrmuzeman]

Whats thoughts on the mens final guys? I was thinking Nadal to cause an upset at the right price but as hes done so well his odds arent as long as I was thinking, hes about 9/2ish on betfair. The other I was considering was to lay the Fed 3-0 if it was odds on but you can actually get as big as 11/8 on it at sportingodds.

Does nadal stand a decent chance? He has faced Fed 4 times this year already and won all 4 times but obviously grass is Feds home and Clay Nadals but there could well be a mental edge with Nadal as hes the only guy who beats Federer.

[igor5]

i think thet fedex gonna deliver this time in 3 sets...

[Beanie]

As good as Nadal looked today, I still doubt he can live with Fed.

Nadal makes few errors, even on grass, always makes the opponent win the point, and more often than not gets really good depth on his shots. Those qualities have troubled his opponents up until now as they haven't really been able to sustain a long rally without making unforced errors, or haven't been able to get back in points if Nadal gets inside the baseline.

I don't think any of that will trouble Federer - who can usually dominate grass court rallies within one or two shots of the serve, and while Nadal will run down anything he can I think it will be Fed bossing most points, and unlike on clay he will find his shots zipping down the lines for winners rather than holding up and allowing Nadal back in the point. The long rallies which work for Nadal against Federer on clay wont work for him here, so he'll probably have to come into the net, and Federer has already showed he's just as comfortable dealing with serve and volley players.

The only thing I think that could worry Fed is the amount of spin Nadal is getting on the ball. His topspin forehands and his serves leap up remarkably - really noticed it today and it might pose a new challenge and a few problems to Fed.

However as good as Nadal was today, Federer looked even better, and he didn't even have to get out of first gear.

Don't think the H2H record will bother him - infact I think at the start of the fortnight he was probably quite looking forward to facing Nadal on grass in order to get a little revenge. He knows this is a totally different ball game to clay, Nadal knows that too, and given that players have psychologists and how many times Fed has faced big matches, I'd be surprised if the H2H record played any bigger part other than giving Fed even more motivation.

Having said all this, Fed is 1.20 so I'm not saying anything new - just that I don't see any chance of an upset here...maybe 1 in 10 at a push.

However, Nadal is a tenacious bastard and his serve has been surprisingly solid this week, so I'm a bit concerned that he could nick a set on a tiebreak, so I'm not sure if I'll be set betting yet. Would be interested to see the thoughts of CJ or ed or anyone with a view before going any further.

[asto85]

I am going on Hennin- Hardenne today. Cant see it being an easy for her SO not going for 2 straight but the 1/2 on offer for the outright is tasty to me.

(Cue another cj mars response) !

[edinlichtie]

Found what i thought is a tasty bet.

i quite fancy Henin-Hardon, but the odds are a bit short for tasty profits, so...

Mauresmo to get most double faults @ 2.2 centrebet

I have a feeling H-H will be on top, and when the pressure's on, Mauresmo is prone to many a mistake and double fault.

In their last matches, Mauresmo had 7 fouble faults, while H-H had 5 (granted, H-H played a set less).

I just feel for the value, it's a very nice bet!

[CJ Mars]

(Cue another cj mars response)

Wimbeldon's been a disaster for me so I should just shut the fcuk up . I thought Baggy might make it akward yesterday but having seen the highlights he looked disinterested beyond belief. 3 clay events next week so hopefully I'll pick up after the good show in the French Open.

JHH should win but the price looks right. The H to H are only 5-4 in her favor which surprised me but Mauresmo's "choker" tag is well merited and she showed nerves again yesterday versus Sharapova in letting her back into the game despite being well on top. JHH has won 5 of her last 6 slam finals (the retirement in Oz being against Mauresmo this year being the odd one out) and she should have the big match experience here.

Tomorrow I'm just going to avoid punting the match and enjoy what should be a good one. I can't bring myself to punt against Nadal @ 1.20 on any surface.

GL

[asto85]

[quote=CJ Mars]Wimbeldon's been a disaster for me so I should just shut the fcuk up .

Well, personally I feel sorry for anyone who may have acted on your advice!