Australian Open 2007

[Hippy Dave]

I'm really tempted by Tommy Haas @ 5/6 to beat David Nalbandian tonight. Nalbandian has got to be feeling it now, after twice coming back from match points to win in 5 sets. The 2nd of these matches was in gruelling conditions - played indoors with broken air-condtioning. Just ignore the fact that he must be tired - he's not actually played that well so far either, Haas has cruised through, and the German leads 2-0 H2H (albeit on carpet and clay).

The only time Nalbandian won two 5 set matches in a tournament (QF and SF of Wimbledon 2002) he capitulated 1-6 3-6 2-6 to Hewitt in the final.

[Hippy Dave]

Davydenko leads Berdych 4-0 H2H (8 sets to 1), yet is 8/11. When you get a H2H like that it can mean that Berdych's game just isn't suited to Davydenko's style of play. Don't read too much into Berdych's crushing win over Tursunov - Tursunov was playing with a badly injured wrist.

[k33nan]

am i correct that blake has been beaten a couple of times by this guy before i think if thats right im gunna go on the 7/4 chance rather than blake and as for murray ive gota bet on him to reach the final of any major grand slam this year but i think nadal will beat him on this one so maybe the bets off fr a couple of months nadal so strong and hopefully murray wil do somet but who knows

[k33nan]

well gonzalez really did beat blake glad i was on the 7/4 altho wen i got to the book it was 13/8.

murry 2-1 down at the mo

[Quandram]

I don't like tennis much but as i'm off work today i took an interest in the Murray match. By christ the little sod is putting me through the mill.

[Beanie]

Good shout on Gonzalez K33nan - didn't see that one coming at all. Haas and Davy progress as mentioned by Dave too.

Murray played well but he never really looked in control...at 2-1 in sets and 2-1 in games he blew 5 break points when Nadal looked a bit rattled. Still I though he played better than Nadal shotwise, was just not as powerful or fit and his serve was a bit too hit and miss as usual.

[ABWN]

Have taken a small punt on Peer to win O/R, certainly capable of beating Serena today and if she goes through she should have an easier match in the semi. 3/10 e/w Peer @ 40/1 Sportingodds (cut it to 33/1 straight after i bet, i must be sharp :booty )

[mrmuzeman]

1.53 is a decent price on Nadal against Gonzalez no?

[Beanie]

Looks good to me Muze but then again so did Blake at 1.56 vs Gonzalez. Watching Nadal against Murray he looked ok - not firing on all cylinders but mentally he's still all there.

Murray showed that you need a little bit of craft to unsettle Nadal - mixing it up with drop shots, serve-volleying and a variety of groundstrokes - I'm not sure Gonzalez possesses that variety. He's good at what he does from the baseline, but if he sits back there then you'd fancy Nadal to outlast him on the long points and frustrate him with the variety of spin he sticks on the ball.

I'll leave this alone as I didn't see Gonzalez v Blake but for the same reasons I thought that one looked good I think this one does too. If that doesn't put you off then nothing will

Fed looked a bit dodgy today - Robredo was garbage for a quarter finalist but there were a few chinks in Fed's armor - he looked irritable and Nadal is just the type of player who could take advantage of that. Let's hope for another Fed v Nadal final.

[mrmuzeman]

3-0 Gonzo (I didnt bet on it). Nadals blaming a leg injury.

and Haas beat Davydenko whats going on Only need Roddick to beat Federer to create another upset. I hope he does cos Roddicks a dude but he wont will he?

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

3-0 Gonzo (I didnt bet on it). Nadals blaming a leg injury.

and Haas beat Davydenko whats going on Only need Roddick to beat Federer to create another upset. I hope he does cos Roddicks a dude but he wont will he?

Roddicks playing some great stuff at the minute Mr M and beat Fed the other week on this courts didn't he?

Remember in Shangai just before last season finished too Roddick had 3 MPS against Fed and ended up losing so he is def capable of mixing it with him thats for sure.

Fed def not back to his best just yet and he wont be relishing this match at all i dont think. Anything is possible for sure. Im going to have a nibble of Roddick anyways.

[mrmuzeman]

Hope so Kiko. But his H2H is pretty woeful against Federer. Its 12-1 to Federer, 4 of which have come in slams in semis/finals and Federer won them all dropping just 2 sets total.

The problem is sustaining it against Federer over the course of a potential 5 sets. Roddick has shown he can live with him for a set or 2 but falls short over a long match. The Roddick win that you mentioned was just a warm up tourny, not even an official tourny doesnt even get mentioned in the stats on ATP. He did still win it though and pushed him in the China Masters as you said (which was their last official match). So there could be signs of him causing an upset, still a big ask though and 9/2 isnt that long really all things considered. Ive been down the betting on Roddick against Federer journey on their last 2 slam finals

[LAMPS]

HOW TO PLAY THIS?

Predicament

3 women to win the Aus Open that are all in the semi finals :D

girls were taken at various times through out the tourni only Clijsters was ante post...

heres how i stand:

• KIM CLIJSTERS 5pts @ 5.5
• and average odds of:
• MARIA SHARAPOVA 3pts @ 3.5
• NICOLE VAIDISOVA 2pts @ 18.9

current lay odds

KIM 3.05
SHARA 2.96
VAID 6

semi finals tonight look like this:

CLIJSTERS - SHARA
VAID - S.WILLIAMS

******

kim was terrible last night but has been flawless all tourni whilst i've been lucky that shara is still there. Vaidisova has done great but im not sure if she can beat Williams.

the plan is lay off and lock profit but just now sure how to do so the most effectively.

******

i predict a final of Kim - Williams but dont want to risk Kim and Nicole going out.

think lay kim's stake so she's a "FREE" bet no loss if she loses to shara, but if she wins then lock profit before the final assuming she faces williams.

vaidisova im looking to trade out now, i cant do it in running because if she loses the 1st set i think her odds will get much bigger in the outright market.

****

so FORUM it's a nice problem to have how should i play this?

all thoughts are welcome

[mrmuzeman]

I think this is a pretty big price, what dyou reckon guys?

Federer to lose 1st set but win the match 9/2 (paddypower)

If Roddick is to stand a good chance here he knows hes gota come out all guns blazing and he will. Of the 12 matches Federer has beaten Roddick in, Roddick took the 1st set on 3 occasions, if that means anything (if it does it means good things cos thats a 3/1 ratio).

The price for Roddick to win the 1st set is 11/4 btw.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by LAMPS

HOW TO PLAY THIS?

Predicament

3 women to win the Aus Open that are all in the semi finals :D

girls were taken at various times through out the tourni only Clijsters was ante post...

heres how i stand:

• KIM CLIJSTERS 5pts @ 5.5
• and average odds of:
• MARIA SHARAPOVA 3pts @ 3.5
• NICOLE VAIDISOVA 2pts @ 18.9

current lay odds

KIM 3.05
SHARA 2.96
VAID 6

semi finals tonight look like this:

CLIJSTERS - SHARA
VAID - S.WILLIAMS

******

kim was terrible last night but has been flawless all tourni whilst i've been lucky that shara is still there. Vaidisova has done great but im not sure if she can beat Williams.

the plan is lay off and lock profit but just now sure how to do so the most effectively.

******

i predict a final of Kim - Williams but dont want to risk Kim and Nicole going out.

think lay kim's stake so she's a "FREE" bet no loss if she loses to shara, but if she wins then lock profit before the final assuming she faces williams.

vaidisova im looking to trade out now, i cant do it in running because if she loses the 1st set i think her odds will get much bigger in the outright market.

****

so FORUM it's a nice problem to have how should i play this?

all thoughts are welcome

My tuppence worth would be that Vaidisova is a bit short at 6s - Williams has plenty question marks over her form/fitness or whatever but this is unchartered territory for a very young Vaidisova and she's got more than just a brute of an opponent to contend with, so I'd agree that just now would be the time to ditch Vaidisova, and trade out for a nice profit on that one, or maybe even back to even on her.

Clijsters v Sharapova is a tough one to call(as the odds suggest) but I'd probably prefer to be showing a bigger + beside Kim as she has been playing far better as you mention, so maybe let that one sit as it is, and look for either to win the final, which they'd be fairly heavy odds on to do.

Just my fairly uneducated opinion so good luck whatever you go with Lamps