Doo Wah Diddy Diddy Dum Diddy Doo!
Wahey! Tennis Time!
Where's that bastard CJMars? I saw him mention elsewhere he was a bit of a tennis tipster, but we ain't seed head nor tail of him
Wonder if he'll pop in for some fun and frolics on the all singing, all dancing Wimbers thread in its final few days?
Anyhow, here's my effort for tomorrow...
I'm skipping Mauresmo - Davenport match as there are too many question marks over how the two styles/mentalities will match up.
Williams +4 Games v Sharapova
Before the tournament, odds of 1.40(maybe slightly below) and thereabouts on Sharapova could have been considered a fair judgement by the bookies for such a matchup.
Sharapova has a game nicely suited to grass, is loved by the Wimbledon crowds, returns wiser and stronger than last year, and is waiting to take the No. 1 ranking in the world. Venus, like her sister, has suffered and apparent loss of appetite for the game, a fact admitted by her father, ever since the fatal shooting of her sister. She has been well below par over recent WTA seasons, and if we consider that form and motivation are absent from her game, then Sharapova is a worthy favourite.
So fast forward 10 days...
Venus looks hungry, fit, and on form. She has breezed through her rounds so far, without dropping a set, and only really Hantuchova and Pierce offering any resistance. We've also seen slight flashes of the form that gave her the title in 2000 and 2001, and she looks once again to be enjoying it.
Sharapova too has played well, but perhaps not up to pre-tournament expectations. She didn't really show anything special in the first four rounds, although its fair to say she didn't have to do much in those matches. Only Petrova really offered a genuine threat, and Masha saw off her fellow Russian with some powerful baseline play. It is best not to overstress this, as she is still a phenomenal grass court player with superb focus, it is simply worth mentioning that she has not been sensational, and still has some very obvious weaknesses(more on that later.)
So to the matchup itself:
Statistics wise, its very difficult to split the two women, as they have had very similar paths. Neither has dropped a set, with both only really put under pressure in the QFs, where both were taken to tiebreaks v strong opposition.
Both raised their game in the last round, with Sharapova serving a personal tournament high 75% on her first serve, and Williams at a personal tournament high of 82% first serves. Hardly surprising, as we have two big game players here.
Unforced errors once again yield similar stats: Sharapova has been improving through the rounds, with 21 in the 3rd, 18 in the 4th and 13 in the QF. Venus' record reads 21 in the 3rd, 15 in the 4th and 14 in the QF.
In the last three rounds, Sharapova has conceded 7 break points(1 in the Quarter Final), with Williams conceding 9(0 in the Quarter final.)
There's no need to go on, but it is clear that the statistics paint a very similar story, and it couldn't be said that either woman has had a much harder route to the semis than the other.
Of course, we can't go by statistics alone, and there are other things to consider. Sharapova adores Wimbledon, and Wimbledon adores her(grunting aside). She is likely to have the lions share of crowd support tomorrow in her quest for a successful defence of her crown. Also, she has an almost unrivalled focus, and a supreme ability to put setbacks behind her and move on to the next point completely unaffected. If she loses the first set, it will be nowhere near a knockout blow for the Russian.
In these respects, she is a worthy favourite, but I believe some of that advantage could be taken away by Williams' ability at the net. She has had over 90% success with her net play in both of her last two matches, while Sharapova looked uncomfortable when Petrova came to the net. Petrova used the tactic sparingly, showing a bit of tactical naivety in my opinion, as it was working, but if Venus senses a weaknes, we can expect her to pounce on it.
So, with both serving well and conceding few break points, I think we're in for a close match(although I do hope Sharapova wins.) Even if Maria takes it in two sets, its no guarantee she will cover the handicap.
If you fancy a higher risk, take the straight Williams win. A slightly lower risk than that - add a bet on Sharapova 2-1 to that.
But Ill go for:
2pts @ 1.66 @
Bet365 on
Williams + 4 games.
I think the price should be nearer 1.50, or better still, the handicap at 2.5 or 3 games.
GL whatever you take.
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Wimbledon Record so far: 48pts staked / 51.18pts returned
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Discuss.
Wimbledon Ladies Semi Finals
Forgot to do the 
Damn it...missed it again Kiko. It was all the rain breaks that threw me off 
.GIF "Thumb(1)")
