Tennis 2006 - Weeks 3 and 4, January 16-29 *Australian Open*

[Beanie]

:

Thanks for that Chaz...i'll go try and find out

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Carlsen v Verdasco - 3pts @ 3.15 with Betfair

Odds seem a little high here in light of Verdasco losing to Juan Monaco in his only match this season. Carlsen is no superstar, but has beaten Karlovic already this season and notched up a few notable victories on hardcourts last year, including Andy Roddick. I think he can cause Verdasco a few problems.

The reason the odds are like that is that Carlsen is a professional 1st round loser when it comes to grand slams.

[Chaz]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Henman's a yellow bellied, lilly livered wee nancy - nae baws!

Sitting here watching the Henman match it would seem as though Tursinov is the yellow belly. 5-4 up and serving for the first set, he was broken twice. All Henman did was get the ball in play. Henman won first set 7-5. Tursinov has some big weapons but his body language looks terrible. Only early though.

[Chaz]

Tursinov starting to warm up,took the 2nd set 6-3. The dude has got some huge groundies and is looking ominous. Over powering Timmy right now.

[edinlichtie]

well played tim, 5-1 up in the 4th set, losing 7-5.



my betfair account nice and healthy again

[Chaz]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Henman's a yellow bellied, lilly livered wee nancy - nae baws!

Yep I think Beanie summed it up perfectly. Tim Tim was 5-2 up in the fourth serving for the set only to blow it. Tursinov in four.

[pistol984]

Congrats Tim!!! That was some inspired bending over :booty

[Beanie]

Never dissapoints! Muller and Blake won too but a lot less comfortably than expected - won't be so keen on either of them in the 2nd round.

[Beanie]

Hmmmm...Starace loses in 5

Poor one that - but a couple of good calls on Kim and Haas dave.

Just one for me today:

5pts Lopez to beat Muller @ 1.63 with Pinnacle

Having back Muller to win in the first round, he turned in a very suspect performance seeing off Mello in 5 sets. If he struggles with a match like that then he will have to improve significantly to get through this one. Lopez looks good coming into this match, and beat Behrend without too much trouble.

[Hippy Dave]

Ok, a small profit on round one, Kim and Haas doing the business in 3 sets, Schuettler beaten in 4 I think. I'll update the 2006 record later in the week.

Round 2

Was tempted to back against Sanguinetti, but opponent Mirnyi has struggled so far, losing to Moodie, and scraping past Ascione in 5 here.

Feliciano Lopez to beat Gilles Muller 7pts @ 1.61 (betfair)
Lopez is the better player, he's the better player on Rebound Ace given past results, and had the easier passage through to round 2.

All those matches, and me and Beanie pick the same selection.

[trickrick]

Nice to see comeback queen Martina Hingis back with a vengence..Don't know what you guys think of her chances, but I've stuck a few quid on her at 22's on Betfair for the outright....Laying possibilities hopefully if she can get to the Quarters?

(Must admit I have a soft spot for the lass since I pulled her absolute double (she was from Philidelphia) whilst heavy drinking in Barcelona a few years ago.......Hmmmmm....Martina....what are you doing now? )

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

I was going in to suggest the same thing and gather thoughts on Martina Hingis's chances.

Watched her match today and after a sluggish first couple of games she really picked up and was hitting some quality shots.

Really took advantage of her opponents lack of speed and was just sitting at the baseline springing the ball from side to side. It was her accuracy that really impressed me the most.

Im with you Trick. On her at 20s with the hope of laying off.

[Beanie]

I think her chances of winning are pretty remote as I don't think she has the stamina to stay at the top of her game for two weeks, something she has admitted herself, but since you are looking at trading that might be what you are thinking too, as she could negotiate another few rounds.

Looking at the draw, and it looks fairly kind to her. Assuming she takes care of Emma Laine, it'll most likely be Mary Pierce after that.

The Aussie open was Hingis' most successful tournament in her prime, with a fairly awesome 44-5 record over the years, while Pierce has gone out by the 2nd round in her last three tournaments here. Hingis leads 8-2 on hardcourts, although its pretty clear these shouldnt be given too much importance as that was a while ago.

Two of those were in melbourne with straight sets Hingis wins both times. Hingis was though easily beaten by Henin in Sydney, and could find herself up against it versus Pierce, who finished 2005 reaching 4 finals out of 5.

However, having not played prior to Melbourne this year, and at one of her weakest Slams, maybe Hingis has found one of the most vulnerable high seeds here, and has a fighting chance, and if she comes through v Laine quickly she should still be fresh enough to give Pierce a good game.

If Hingis were to get through v Pierce, the draw could open up a little - with Clijsters very vulnerable to injury in her quarter.

So back to the question - I think it all depends on how the market moves. There's a chance that given fitness concerns the odds on Hingis winning wouldn't move much even if she managed to beat someone like Pierce, so as always its a case of weighing up the pros and cons of backing her in her matches, or trading on the outrights.

Hmmm, so thats not really reaching a conclusion

If anything I might have left the outrights until after her next match - Laine beat Vives 6-1 6-1 in the first round, while it took Hingis 3 sets to beat the same opponent a few weeks ago, and given the odds of just 1.13 and thereabouts on Hingis for this one the outright odds won't move much even if she wins.

[dj_mercury]

Long time no see, don't even know why I didn't posted here lately...

Anyway:

Maria Sanchez Lorenzo - Anna Lena Groenfeld 1 @ 3.00 William Hill 3/10

Anna Lena Groenfeld struggled in the first round and won only in three set against Laura Pous Tio, while Maria Sanchez Lorenzo has played a really good match and made the surprise by beating the young rising star and in-form Safarova. Groenfeld has difficulties to recover her best form since she got injured in the end of the last season and her disappointing results in the Hopman cup two weeks ago proves this. Sanchez Lorenzo is a tough player to face, because she commits few mistakes and rebounds everything to other part of the net, and if she is able to be consistent in doing this like against Safarova, Groenfeld has for sure to cut down the large ammount of errors that she made in the first round and that almost costed her the match. Personally odds over 2.6 for the spanish lady are value, this is why I will go with 3 units on this offer by William Hill, it should not last long really. Pinnacle opened with 3.2, but now they are down to 2.75.

[trickrick]