Tennis 2006 - Weeks 3 and 4, January 16-29 *Australian Open*

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

Long time no see, don't even know why I didn't posted here lately...

Anyway:

Maria Sanchez Lorenzo - Anna Lena Groenfeld 1 @ 3.00 William Hill 3/10

Anna Lena Groenfeld struggled in the first round and won only in three set against Laura Pous Tio, while Maria Sanchez Lorenzo has played a really good match and made the surprise by beating the young rising star and in-form Safarova. Groenfeld has difficulties to recover her best form since she got injured in the end of the last season and her disappointing results in the Hopman cup two weeks ago proves this. Sanchez Lorenzo is a tough player to face, because she commits few mistakes and rebounds everything to other part of the net, and if she is able to be consistent in doing this like against Safarova, Groenfeld has for sure to cut down the large ammount of errors that she made in the first round and that almost costed her the match. Personally odds over 2.6 for the spanish lady are value, this is why I will go with 3 units on this offer by William Hill, it should not last long really. Pinnacle opened with 3.2, but now they are down to 2.75.

Nice to see you here again dj

We sure could do with a ladies tennis expert as I ain't got a clue about it(too much time spent looking at them and not the tennis I reckon )

[trickrick]

Go Martina...Do it for trickrick and Kiko...

[dj_mercury]

Hehe Beanie, I follow both, men and women competitions, but both not good, lol. Well this is just the second tennis bet of the season (the first was Pennetta over Hingis won with a huge ammount of luck), so as you see I am trying to be the more possible selective, at the end of the season I will see if this conservative and disciplined betting strategy will work. From last season Us Open on I have read every day the tennis picks of an italian forum and their explaination and I have to say I have learned a lot about this sport and how to bet on it, hope I will be able to apply all what I have read there day after day and to close the season in profit.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by trickrick

Go Martina...Do it for trickrick and Kiko...

Stick me on that list too trick I hope she wins as it would be a great story, and she's always had something about her(although maybe that's just because Seles and Graf were about the only people she was compared to

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

Hehe Beanie, I follow both, men and women competitions, but both not good, lol. Well this is just the second tennis bet of the season (the first was Pennetta over Hingis won with a huge ammount of luck), so as you see I am trying to be the more possible selective, at the end of the season I will see if this conservative and disciplined betting strategy will work. From last season Us Open on I have read every day the tennis picks of an italian forum and their explaination and I have to say I have learned a lot about this sport and how to bet on it, hope I will be able to apply all what I have read there day after day and to close the season in profit.

I don't think being more selective is ever a bad thing dj. I don't usually stray outside the 4 majors nowadays as its only these tournaments when I get to watch enough of the action.

Good luck on Lorenzo though and I'll follow you on that one.

[dj_mercury]

yeah, well I have to better explain what I mean by selective, obviously as the word says not a huge ammount of bets every month, but especially carefully evaluation of the odds. For exemple I will never bet on short odds, you will not see me take less than 1.5 odds if it's not Federer (so impossible if it's not against Nadal or Coria on clay) or Nadal on Clay, I have learned that the bet you made yesterday Starace at 1.6x on hard, is wrong even if it wins because a clay court player like Starace can never be worth 1.6x against an atp player on hardcourt, even if he has just won some important matches the week before (sorry for not warning you about this yesterday before Starace lost). Because what is difficult to understand is that this sport is really amazing competitive, from number 3 to 150 (I excluded Federer and Nadal on clay, hehe) there is not a huge difference like someone may think, if one of this players has a bad day he will loose if the other is in better conditions, most of the time (this is not the case of a team sport, where the individual performance can affect the whole team, but not always in a decisive way), this is why I think that on the long run by betting on short odds it's really difficult to make profit, especially if you bet also in the non-grand slam periods.

[dj_mercury]

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

Long time no see, don't even know why I didn't posted here lately...

Anyway:

Maria Sanchez Lorenzo - Anna Lena Groenfeld 1 @ 3.00 William Hill 3/10

Anna Lena Groenfeld struggled in the first round and won only in three set against Laura Pous Tio, while Maria Sanchez Lorenzo has played a really good match and made the surprise by beating the young rising star and in-form Safarova. Groenfeld has difficulties to recover her best form since she got injured in the end of the last season and her disappointing results in the Hopman cup two weeks ago proves this. Sanchez Lorenzo is a tough player to face, because she commits few mistakes and rebounds everything to other part of the net, and if she is able to be consistent in doing this like against Safarova, Groenfeld has for sure to cut down the large ammount of errors that she made in the first round and that almost costed her the match. Personally odds over 2.6 for the spanish lady are value, this is why I will go with 3 units on this offer by William Hill, it should not last long really. Pinnacle opened with 3.2, but now they are down to 2.75.

Huge odds dropp, now Lorenzo is exchanged at 2.3-2.4 on Betfair and Groenfeld odds are rising. For sure value is in our hands with that offer by William Hill.

[Hippy Dave]

Ok, Lopez won in 4, time for an update after 3 winners from 4 in this tournament.

Tennis Betting 2006
Starting Bank = 200pts
Bets = 20
W/L = 10/10
Staked = 148pts
Returned = 140.91pts
Profit/Loss = -7.09pts
Yield = -4.79%

One match I very nearly bet on tonight is Chela to beat Hewitt - Hewitt taken to 5 by Vik, and in earlier tournaments beaten by Kohlschreiber and Seppi, and taken to 3 by Hernych and Spadea. But with Hewitt in his home slam I don't quite think Chela's 3.00 is good enough. As I said yesterday I'm also tempted by Mirnyi, due to Sanguinetti's inability on Rebound Ace, but Mirnyi's form doesn't justify the bet.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

Long time no see, don't even know why I didn't posted here lately...

Anyway:

Maria Sanchez Lorenzo - Anna Lena Groenfeld 1 @ 3.00 William Hill 3/10

Anna Lena Groenfeld struggled in the first round and won only in three set against Laura Pous Tio, while Maria Sanchez Lorenzo has played a really good match and made the surprise by beating the young rising star and in-form Safarova. Groenfeld has difficulties to recover her best form since she got injured in the end of the last season and her disappointing results in the Hopman cup two weeks ago proves this. Sanchez Lorenzo is a tough player to face, because she commits few mistakes and rebounds everything to other part of the net, and if she is able to be consistent in doing this like against Safarova, Groenfeld has for sure to cut down the large ammount of errors that she made in the first round and that almost costed her the match. Personally odds over 2.6 for the spanish lady are value, this is why I will go with 3 units on this offer by William Hill, it should not last long really. Pinnacle opened with 3.2, but now they are down to 2.75.

Back with a vengeance dj

[dj_mercury]

hehe, thx again, mate. I stayed up to follow the livescore of the match, although I had to wake up early because of the university. I am bloody tired now, lol.

[Kombinator]

Here is a something to chew on for this slow betting day:

Hantuchova - S. Williams 1 @3.00(Ladbrokers)
and
Kirilenko - Devenport 1 @8.75(Pinnacle)

Those are not my picks... I just adopted them cause I feel confident about them.

[Hippy Dave]

The two selections that I nearly took, Chela and Mirnyi, both won

Round 3

Mario Ancic to beat David Ferrer 10pts @ 1.55 (betfair)
It seems like I back Ancic every time I post here, but yet again I have to repeat, on hardcourts he only loses to big servers and (I have said in the past world class players, but will modify slightly) players in world class form/world class players. Ferrer is a solid player, but isn't a player who will beat guys that are quality on a surface. Ancic won 6-1 6-1 in their only previous meeting.

Feliciano Lopez to beat Ivan Ljubicic 5pts @ 3.85 (betfair)
Ljubicic isn't a good grand slam player - never made it past the 3rd round. Lopez beat Ljubicic in their only metting (start of 2004) and, crucially, it was on Rebound Ace, the same surface as is being used here. Can't leave a price like this alone, despite Lopez's slow start to 2006. Could see a 5 setter here, so should be a good one for the traders too.

[edinlichtie]

Originally Posted by dave (without a capital d)

Mario Ancic to beat David Ferrer 10pts @ 1.55 (betfair)

ferrer wins 6-3 6-3 6-3, eek

[dj_mercury]

Originally Posted by Kombinator

Here is a something to chew on for this slow betting day:

Hantuchova - S. Williams 1 @3.00(Ladbrokers)
and
Kirilenko - Devenport 1 @8.75(Pinnacle)

Those are not my picks... I just adopted them cause I feel confident about them.

good choice to adopt the Hantuchova pick.

[Beanie]

Superb Komb(or whoever it was with the pick )

Strange result for Ancic

I'll have a wee browse of tonights ties later.

[Kombinator]

Yeah, it was fun!
For today this is what I am adopting:

Clijsters K - Vinci R 2 @8.2(Pinnacle) for 0.8/10

Clijsters K - Vinci R(+6.5) 2 @1.9(Fonbet) for 2.2/10

Mauresmo A - Krajicek M(+4.5) 2 @1.82(Fonbet) for 3/10

Good Lucky Luke!