Women's volleyball - Olympic qualifiers, Germany 15-20 Jan.

[rcgills]

Germany 1.20
Turkey 4.00

Croatia 2.20
Romania 1.62

Netherlands 1.71
Poland 2.00

Bet 365

[rcgills]

Some outrights from Sporting Odds

Russia 1.925
Netherlands 3.80
Germany 5.20
Poland 6.50
Serbia 7.50
Turkey 51.00
Romania 201.00
Croatia 301.00

World rankings here FIVB World Ranking - Women

Have to admit I'm not too sure of how strong all the teams are here. I know Netherlands are the World Grand Prix champions from last year though, where they beat Poland 3-0 in the final group stage. They also beat Russia 3-2 in that final group stage, so they could maybe be worth a shot for the outright betting.

You know anything about the teams, any important missing players, etc., Engineer (or anyone else )?

Might consider backing the Netherlands in their game with Poland, but for the other 2 games I'll be steering clear for now I think, know nothing really about any of the sides involved.

[rcgills]

Have seen nothing to put me off Holland, so have backed them in the outrights at 3.8, also had a smaller interest in Germany given their home advantage for the tournament.

Holland @ 3.8 4pts
Germany @ 5.2 2pts

[rcgills]

Actually, thinking on it now, that Germany bet doesn't look a particularly good one really Even if they have got home advantage, they're going to have it tough to get out of a group with Poland and the Netherlands.

Have added 2pts on Serbia too @ 7.5. They didn't take part in the World Grand Prix won by the Netherlands, but then they finished runners-up in the European Championships shortly afterwards, followed by a 5th place in the World Cup. They're the 2nd highest ranked side in this competition after Russia.

Actually, haven't listed the groups yet. Groups (and rankings in brackets):

Germany (15)
Turkey (22)
Poland (9)
Netherlands (10)


Serbia (7)
Russia (5)
Croatia (=44)
Romania (=48)

Also seen that Poland beat the Netherlands 3-1 in the European Championships, so the game between those 2 today may be closer than I'd previously thought. Think I'll just leave all of today's games, see how the sides all start off.

[engineer]

OK, time for some women's volley...

Really, today's set of games looks tricky and I'm getting involved for interest only.

Quite competitive tournament and in fact I like Russia and Serbia's chances the most.
Russia's the best team by any means, but the price is too short, Serbia @7.50 worths a few quid.

If the tournament was in Turkey and they were full squad I'd give them decent chances, but not now. Their best player is out due to pregnancy and the Turkish team will struggle against the others in the group.

Croatia is in Germany with something that looks like their second team and I could like Romania today but not at that price.

About Holland - Poland:
This will be a close match that could go both ways. Without knowing what teams will look like I can't make any prediction.

So for me today it's:

Germany -1.5 games to beat Turkey (still waiting for best odds and bookmakers)
Germany to win 3:0 - I'll be glad to take it @2.00, but still only 1.85 available at BF.

Netherlands to win 3:2 and Poland to win 3:2 (in other words 5 games to be played there).

[rcgills]

Nice start for you yesterday with the 3-0 Germany, Engineer

Have to say I wasn't all that impressed with the Netherlands yesterday. Apart from a brief revival in the 3rd set they looked second best for most of the match. Leaves them almost certainly needing to win their 2 remaining matches if they're going to qualify.

Serbia and Russia both very short prices for today against Romania and Croatia respectively, I'm not getting involved there. Poland are available at around 1.9 to beat Germany on Betfair, and I could well be tempted by that. Poland looked good against the Netherlands yesterday, while from the bits I saw, I didn't think Germany were all that convincing against Turkey, but Turkey seemed to lose their nerve or lose concentration at the key points of the game. I'll wait until the bookies prices come out before deciding on that one I think.

[rcgills]

Bookies seem to make Poland narrow favourites, not so sure I agree with that.

Poland v Germany @ 1.8 4pts
Poland (-1.5 sets) @ 2.55 2pts

[engineer]

Not much of betting material today.
I'm not touching the Germany v Poland game, won't be surprised if the Germans prevail somehow.

The only bet for me seems to be Russia to win 3:0 against the Croats @1.36.
Can't see how Croatian players can win a game there, so I'll take that short prize (watch me now ). Only the beauty of Sania Popovic won't be enough I reckon

[engineer]

It was hard to find a decent bet yesterday, but today it's impossible

Good shot with Poland, RC, the Germans should be very disappointed for losing that one.

Russia walked over Croatia easily, but the Serbians were close to a shameful defeat, Romania's players missed the opportunity to end it up 3:0 and were punished. But if the Serbian team plays like that in the rest of the games nothing good will happen to them.

So, today's fixtures:

Turkey - Holland 10.50 - 1.09

Serbia - Croatia 1.06 - 8.60

Romania - Russia 10.0 - 1.03

[engineer]

Turkey might give some resistance to the Netherlands and my only bet for that game could be lay 3:0 for Holland. I'd like to lay it at 2.10 or lower.

Serbia should beat Croatia 3:0 but after the poor match yesterday I can't trust the Serbian girls now.

Russia is a class, from what I've seen till now I think they are the only team to win that tournament. Unfortunately there is no antepost betting now as I would pile on them for the outright win.
Today Russia to win 3:0 is my call and the price is again 1.35.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by engineer

It was hard to find a decent bet yesterday, but today it's impossible

Agree with that, Engineer. Three teams at very short prices, but Holland did nothing to impress in their first game, Serbia were terrible from the parts I saw of their game v Romania, and Russia did what was expected of them, but I'm reluctant to get involved with them on the basis of that game as they were never really challenged at all yesterday, would prefer to see how they react under a bit of pressure.

No bets for me today.

[rcgills]

Some strange results yesterday (to my uneducated mind at least). Turkey beat the Netherlands which leaves the Netherlands virtually out (from what I can gather I think they'd now need to beat Germany 3-0 today to qualify).

Serbia were poor again at the start against Croatia, losing the first set and going 7-0 down in the second before fighting back. And Russia dropped a set to Romania

Serbia and Russia both already qualified for the semi-finals, regardless of what happens in the game between them this afternoon. Maybe in that case worth a slight interest in Serbia as the outsiders for what is basically now nothing more than a warm-up game.

May be interested in some kind of bet on Turkey to at least keep it close against Poland. Turkey lost 3-0 to Germany, but from what I remember they were in a strong position in a couple of the sets and seemed to lose their nerve and/or concentration towards the end of those sets and let Germany back in, and then I thought they looked pretty impressive yesterday in beating the Netherlands. If Poland had been guaranteed to make the semi-finals, I'd have been tempted to back Turkey outright, but as Poland need a win to make sure, I may lay Poland 3-0 or take Turkey on some kind of sets handicap, depending on the prices once they're out.

[rcgills]

Have taken 2pts on Serbia @ 3.75. This is purely a theory on my part, rather than based on any kind of knowledge, but given the way they've played so far, I don't really think they're in much of a position to take this game lightly, they need to try and find a bit of form ahead of the semi-finals. Fingers crossed the Russians are more relaxed going into this game

No bet yet on the Turkey v Poland game as Sporting Odds, for reasons best known only to them, are only offering 1 handicap bet at the moment, and that's giving Turkey a -1.5 set handicap Prices Turkey (-1.5) 9.0, Poland (+1.5) 1.03. Surely if they're only going to offer 1 handicap bet, it should be with the favourites having a handicap, not the underdogs? Still, I'll wait and see if they add anything else, if not then I may have a little interest in a 3-1 to Poland (@ 3.5).

[engineer]

Originally Posted by rcgills

No bet yet on the Turkey v Poland game as Sporting Odds, for reasons best known only to them, are only offering 1 handicap bet at the moment, and that's giving Turkey a -1.5 set handicap Prices Turkey (-1.5) 9.0, Poland (+1.5) 1.03.

Here's my view about today's games:

If Poland play like they can Turkey has no chances imo. Poland can afford to lose it 3:0 but I don't think they want to be second in the group and face Russia in the semis. So I give Poland credits to score another victory today and do a favour to the Germans.
Russia should see Serbia off and I think the most probable result there is Russia to win 3:0, comparing current performance and class. that's why I think Russia will sit on the top of that group.
And the late match will be quite interesting. Both teams will be motivated to win it, but I see the Germans as a favourites (the bookies also). Surprisingly for me the Dutch players are pathetic and very weak mentally. Can's see them getting together for that match against the solid Germans.

So, I'll go for a treble at Betfair (rarely betting multibles there) with Poland, Russia and Germany @~3/2 - 5/10