Spain 19/20 May

[rcgills]

In the Primera, think I'm going to have to go with Real Sociedad. In decent form, 5-1-4 for their last 10, while Celta are in freefall, just 1 win in their last 10, and they've lost 8 of their last 9 aways (strange, as they made an excellent start away from home, 4-3-1 from their first 8 away games). A draw is no good really to either team at this stage of the season, 40pts is usually the target for safety, and these two are both on 30pts with 4 games to go, so whoever loses here is as good as relegated. 2.2 with Betfair looks too big for Sociedad IMO.

Sociedad v Celta Vigo @ 2.2 4pts

Have gone off Getafe a little bit. Still think they stand a chance of winning, but even though Espanyol are planning on making quite a few changes, their weakened side had a great performance at the Bernabeu last weekend, and they may feel they owe a performance to their fans for the way they supported them throughout the week. They may not of course , but I'll leave this one.

Think Villarreal should be able to see off Racing Santander too. Villarreal set to be unchanged from last weekend, while Racing will be missing Munitis, one of their key players this season. Momentum is definitely with Villarreal, they've won 4 in a row, including against Barcelona and an impressive 4-1 demolition of Osasuna away from home. Racing meanwhile have gone 4 games without a win, which has near enough killed off their chances of a UEFA Cup place. Defeat today would pretty much confirm that they'll miss out.

Villarreal v Racing Santander @ 1.75 4pts

Only game in the Segunda that I may possibly be interested in is Castellon v Valladolid. Valladolid have relaxed since securing promotion, and have now gone 3 games without a win. Castellon need 3 more points to ensure safety, and although they've got an easy looking run-in which should give them more than enough points for safety (Lorca A, Ponferradina H, Elche A, Malaga H), they'll want to get it sorted out as soon as possible. Quite a few players missing for Valladolid, no Llorente, Pedro López and Álvaro Rubio (all first teamers, and Llorente is top scorer), plus Mario Suárez, Dani Kome, García Calvo and Óscar Sánchez.

Castellon solid enough at home, 8-6-4, and I think their desire might just be that little bit greater than Valladolid's.

2.84 on Castellon at Betfair looks a nice enough price, although I'm going to think on this one a little more yet.

[Monty H.]

Cheers rcgills, bets allready placed but have come off on Getafe myself

Sociedad v Celta Vigo
Gonna have to go with overs here and the odds are simply irresistable @ 2.2
Sociedad are playing excellent footy and Celtas attacking play is delicious..
h2h has a strange pattern so to speak and both teams have to attack..
Looks to me likeits time for overs.

20-12-06 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 0 : 0 Primera Division 2006
07-05-06 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 2 : 2 Primera Division 2006
08-01-06 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 1 : 0 Primera Division 2006
25-01-04 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 2 : 5 Primera Division 2004
02-09-03 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 1 : 1 Primera Division 2003
15-06-03 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 3 : 2 Primera Division 2003
18-01-03 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 1 : 0 Primera Division 2003
26-01-02 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 3 : 1 Primera Division 2002
16-09-01 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 0 : 0 Primera Division 2001
04-02-01 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 2 : 2 Primera Division 2001
17-09-00 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 4 : 1 Primera Division 2000
13-02-00 Celta Vigo Real Sociedad 4 : 1 Primera Division 2000
26-09-99 Real Sociedad Celta Vigo 0 : 2 Primera Division 1999

[rcgills]

Following on from the Talavera bet above, the team currently in 4th and level on points with them is Ferrol, who are away to Atletico Madrid B. Atletico B are 5th from bottom, which is a relegation play-off place, so they badly need the points too.

Atletico B's home record is a fairly poor 7-4-7, while Ferrol away from home are very hard to beat, 7-9-2. One key piece of team news though is that since Atletico Madrid's first team keeper Leo Franco is out for tonight's game v Barcelona, the B team keeper Roberto will be on the bench for the first team, meaning they'll have the B team's 2nd choice keeper in goal tonight.

Am going to wait just until the final score is confirmed from the Talavera game, but last I saw, with 18 minutes to go, Talavera were winning 1-0. Unless that changes, it's going to mean that Ferrol will temporarily drop out of the play off zone, and only a win would be good enough to get back into it. Only one game left after today, and Talavera's looks winnable, home to mid-table Leganes who have nothing to play for. Ferrol's last game is at home to relegation threatened Celta B. Basically, if Talavera hang on to their lead then this becomes a must-win game for Ferrol, and I fancy them to do it.

Actually, in the time I've been typing this, it's been confirmed, Talavera won 1-0.

Atletico Madrid B v Racing Ferrol @ 2.5 3pts

[perke666]

neither do I want to Barca win the tittle, but as u said RC Atl hates Real more than Barca, and everything is possible. bloody real B took me away pretty much money yesterday and it's definite I am gooing to play Texas Hold'em instead of betting. my bet for today is Osasuna DNB, 4pts

[blackadder]

I am on Castellon @ 2.6 locale with 5 pts.
Castellon are tight to beat at home and i think they have enough quality to win against the leader.
Current form is good and they should be more motivated to get all points here.
Murcia lost their home game so still 6 points advantage of Valladolid on the top.

[Bigkegman]

I've dabbled with both Real and Barca. Real are playing good football where as Barca are struggling but think both will scrape results tonight and as they're both on the box

[rcgills]

Villarreal, Real Sociedad, Portuense, Talavera and Ferrol all win I'm never satisfied, mind you, I'm still kicking myself for not going with Getafe . Ended up not going for Castellon either, they're 2-1 up for Blackadder though at HT.

Nice call on the Sociedad overs, Monty

Did you take Osasuna in the end, Igor?

[Bigkegman]

Real scrape a win indeed - they dominated but couldn't find the killer instinct and when they went 2-0 up that was it basically game set and scratch or so it was thought. went to 2-2 and carlos scored a fortunate winner in the 91st minute

C'MON BARCA

this game is 24 minutes oled and chances have been very few and far between - madrid probably just shaving it

[rcgills]

Looking a bit better for you now, Kegman Christ almighty though, what a mare Atletico are having in defence. Pichu in goal and Eller at the back are fucking awful. Watching the way they played there towards the end was almost enough to get me thinking Perke may actually have been right. To be honest, the only thing stopping me thinking that is the fact that goal difference makes no difference to Barca now, so if Atletico had agreed to throw the game, surely they'd only go for a narrow defeat, rather than getting hammered and annoying their fans who are sitting there in the pissing rain, and getting booed off at half-time.

No, I think Atletico are just shite

One bet at half-time for me - a red card to be shown, 3pts @ 3.1. The conditions aren't helping at all, but there've been some nasty tackles going in during the first half. If I had to choose I'd say Eller could be the one to go, he's hardly put a foot right and is already on a booking. Although if I was Aguirre I'd sub him now before he can do any more damage.

Having said all that, I'd love it if the ref abandoned the game due to the pitch becoming unplayable

[Bigkegman]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Having said all that, I'd love it if the ref abandoned the game due to the pitch becoming unplayable

- NO WAY


Ath Madrid have been so awful I think this has been laid out and that it's all ready been set up becuase their defence cant be that bad CAN THEY ??????

Didn't they have one of the best home records up to date

[Bigkegman]

nice 4th goal from Barca mind

[rcgills]

Sorry Kegman, I just want Barca out of the title race, and this looked like their most difficult game left.

The conditions haven't helped Atletico, but they have been awful today.

Their home record's not bad, 8-6-3, but they've always had the capacity to fuck up - the likes of Sociedad, Nastic and Betis have all got away from there with draws this season. This is quite spectacular though, even by their standards.

[Bigkegman]

i should actually look up myself but as i'm half pissed you'll be able to answer the questin

how does the final league positions end up being decided cause it's obviously not on Goal differenece

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

One bet at half-time for me - a red card to be shown, 3pts @ 3.1. The conditions aren't helping at all, but there've been some nasty tackles going in during the first half. If I had to choose I'd say Eller could be the one to go, he's hardly put a foot right and is already on a booking. Although if I was Aguirre I'd sub him now before he can do any more damage.

Bingo Possibly the most predictable red card of the season.

Kegman, it's decided on the H2H between the two sides this season. As Madrid beat Barca in the Bernabeu and drew in the Nou Camp, that's why they're above Barca despite being level on points.

[rcgills]

Pichu (the Atletico keeper) is going to be mentally scarred from this game, isn't he?