Brazil Serie A Pre-cursor for 2008/09

[FC Basher]

Good call with Botafogo,and for the info Merlin

Sport Recife next game is against newly promoted Victoria.

[Merlin]

No prices out yet for next weekends games, but 1.90 and over about Sport would see me frothing at the mouth

However, bet they will be around 1.65 - 1.75

[Merlin]

BRAZIL SERIE A

Preview for Saturday 17th May:

SPORT v VITORIA
Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife - Brazil.
Kick-off time: 10.10pm (UK time)





SPORT
SPORT lost their 2008 Serie A opener, last week, to Botafogo in Rio de Janeriro - no real surprise they went down 2-0.

I did however that day, mark them down as a good bet in their next home game, they in fact obliged on Wednesday night in the Brazil Cup against Internacional, beating them 3-1 - with only 10 men from 68 minutes onwards - not a bad win eh!

I must confess though, that Cup win was a bonus - because when I pencilled them in for a win, it was this game I was thinking of.

Sport are a solid side at home, and other teams do not relish visits to the Northern Lion's den. They scored 40 goals at home last season and in the process, bagged 38 Points.

For sure they will be pushing for a top 10 spot this year - and they have every chance of doing so.


VITORIA
VITORIA are also based in north-east Brazil, not like, Sport, in Pernambuco , but in Salvador, Bahia.

They are in Serie A this season by virtue of finishing 4th in Serie B - and frankly, I expect them to go straight back down.

They had a tough assignment at home last week - and as expected (at least I expected defeat - or a draw at best) were beaten 0-2 by Cruzeiro.

It wasn't that long ago ,they were in Serie C (2006). They have however, tasted the top flight , but were relegated in 2004 - and have not seen top drawer league football since.


ANALYSIS:

If we look at the head-to-head between these two sides, Vitoria are actually superior - but this is so misleading, but we must take a brief look.

All head-to-heads:
Jun 18, 2005 Serie B Vitoria Salvador 3 - 2 Sport Recife
Oct 3, 2001 Serie A Vitoria Salvador 1 - 0 Sport Recife
Sep 2, 2000 Serie A Vitoria Salvador 4 - 3 Sport Recife
Nov 7, 1999 Serie A Sport Recife 1 - 1 Vitoria Salvador
Aug 5, 1998 Serie A Sport Recife 2 - 1 Vitoria Salvador

You will notice that the history between them is not really relevant for 2008 - at least in my opinion it's not - most of the games were pre 2001, and today they are both very different teams!

Sport have a strong squad of players, and whilst Vitoria have improved their team from last season, they will be no match for Sport at home.


VERDICT:

It's Sport all the way - and I must say in advance, I personally don't like Sport Recife, because I support Nautico, another Recife based Serie A team - but there is no getting away from it - they will be superior here - and ought to win comfortably!

BET:
SPORT to win @ 1.75 with Sporting Bet (8 Points)

Other possible bet
Sport to win at half/time and full/time are 2.75 with Stan James

Before betting it's worth checking the odds, because at the time of writing not all bookmakers have the game priced-up.

[AnothrSpacecat]

looks good, ill be on them when the time comes after last night. can only have confidence in a team who can win 3-1 with 10 men against superior opponents than vitoria.

ill await your bet merlin

[Merlin]

Brazil Serie A Fluminense v Nautico Sunday 18th May Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 8.00pm (UK time) Fluminense Fluminense did very well last season, finishing 4th in Serie A. They would have bettered that but for an octet of home draws, which mostly came in the second half of the season - this implies they started better than they finished - and with that in mind, it is probable that they may win this game. Last week, they drew their opener away, 0-0 against Atlético Mineiro - and will without doubt be looking to bag all the points at home. Nautico Nautico are going to struggle again this year, even so, I am quite confident of them avoiding the drop into the obscurity that is Serie B. They could conceivably better their last seasons 15th - but only just! Nautico are in fact a value away team (relative) - but I don't think this is one of the away games they will win - besides,on price alone, they are of no interest for an away bet in this match - the value is with the home or draw. Nautico started the campaign with a 2-1 home win against Goias - but it's a different ball game this week in Rio, and the best they can hope for is a point. ANALYSIS: Last year, this fixture resulted in a 2-1 win for Fluninense, and this scoreline is again a distinct possibility. Further, last term, Nautico lost their first 4 away games,moreover, didn't start winning away until about 3 months into the season - adding more weight to the unlikely away win. VERDICT: I don't think Fluminense are going to hammer Nautico, but ought to manage a win - However, a draw is likely, so will cover that possibility with a correct score side-bet. BET: Fluminense to win @ 2.00 with Bet 365 (6 Points) Side-bet correct score: 2-2 @ 13.00 with Bet 365 (1 Point)

[Merlin]

BRAZIL SERIE A

FLAMENGO v INTERNACIONAL
Saturday 24th May @ 10.10pm (UK time).
Venue: Maracana, Rio de Janeriro, Brazil.



FLAMENGO
Flamengo are a Rio based team who will be challenging for the Serie A title this year.

First 2 games produced 4 points - They dished a 3-1 hammering to Santos, then went to Gremio, Porto Alegre and secured a good point.

They will be pushing for a top 3 spot - for sure (finished 3rd last year), and are a side to back when playing at home - incidentally, they are one of the best supported clubs in Brazil.

INTERNACIONAL
Sport Club Internacional play out of Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Big South River).

They kicked-off their 2008 campaign with a win at home, beating Vasco, 3-1. They were however, dragged into reality the next twice. First in the Cup against Sport (lost 3-1) prior to going down 2-1 to Palmeiras. Admittedly , both these games were away - and it's a very likely repeated script in this game.

ANALYSIS
I must admit, when I looked at the head-to-head I was quite shocked to see that Internacional hold a great historic advantage.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
16 games in total
FLAMENGO WINS = 4
INTERNACIONAL WINS = 10
DRAWS = 2

This is clearly a game whereby Internacional has a good record - even when Flamengo are playing at home:

FLAMENGO HOME GAMES = 7
FLAMENGO HOME WINS = 2
INTERNACIONAL AWAY WINS = 3
DRAWS = 2

Of course, we now have to decide which are the most important factors in considering a verdict. Naturally, opinions will differ, and that's what makes football what it is - particularly from a betting point of view.

Betting decisions have to be made, so let's jump into the verdict:

VERDICT

Before delving into a bit of research, I was full on Flamengo - I still do think they may win, but I confess , as I must be honest in writing a preview - my enthusiasm has been tempered, primarily through Internacionals past performace record against Flamengo.

However, I will still weigh-in with the home win , but at the time of writing this preview (Thursday afternoon)there are no bookies odds available.

I would envisage FLAMENGO to be around 1.90 (top-end) and 1.80 (bottom-end). I will take the best price for 7 points.

I will also side-bet the correct score in favour of an away win, probabaly take 1-2 (best price of course).

BET
FLAMENGO to WIN

Side-bet correct score away win 1-2

[Merlin]

BRAZIL SERIE A

FLAMENGO v INTERNACIONAL
Sunday 25th May @ 9.00pm (UK time).
Venue: Ilha do Retiro, Recife, Brazil.



SPORT
Sport are usually a team to follow at home, although, this season they are yet to win from 2 matches, recording a draw and a loss.

But frustratingly, sandwiched between both league games have been 2 magnificent home wins in the Cup,it was Vasco who received the latest 2-0 blitz, prior to that it was Internacional on the 3-1 receiving end.

What concerns me frankly, is the bounce factor - they have bounced before, in fact as recent as their latest home bore-draw with Vitoria.

FLUMINENSE
I saw these play (on the tv)at home to Nautico, they were dire, and I had set my mind to avoid them. However, they are worth considering when playing away - they lose more games than they should at home, but did beat Sao Paulo in the Cup last week. Further, they done the double over Sport last season.

ANALYSIS
Frankly, this is a tricky affair - particularly as it's so early in the season.

A case can be made for either team to win this match, although, if you put a gun to my head, I would slightly favour Sport - but due to Sport's penchant for dissapointing after an emphatic win, and Fluminense's good away record, I think this is a very likely draw - I don't feel it will be 0-0, probably a 1-1 or even a 2-2 scoreline.

VERDICT
It's a draw prediction from me. But I do like to have a side-bet cover, and on this occasion I will play a very small stake on the draw at half-time, with either team prevailing second-half.


BET
DRAW @ 3.30

Side-bet half-time full-time
Draw - Sport @ 5.00
Draw - Fluminense @ 8.00

Good luck if you play.

[farnerud]

I read that Fluminense will only travel to Recife with 3 regulars and even coach Gaucho won't be there. Do you still back them under this conditions?

[Merlin]

Here's a live online link for the game:
TV virtual

Yeah, they are bringing a second team up - another show of contempt by the southern teams ..

They did the same thing against Nautico last week, and lost 2-0.... so this does put Sport back on the front foot...
Still think it could be a draw though...

[AnothrSpacecat]

Strange that. SUre that makes Sporte a decent price for the game now? Are Fluminense's reserves really that good?

[kompressaur]

Brasileiro Serie A Matches
31 May 2008
22:10 Vasco Da Gama (2.1) Draw (3.25) Gremio (3.6) 106%
22:10 Figueirense (1.7) Draw (3.75) Goias (7) 100%
22:10 Internacional (1.62) Draw (4) Sport (7.5) 100%

1 June 2008
20:00 Nautico (2.1) Draw (3.25) Botafogo RJ (3.5) 107%
20:00 Santos (2.25) Draw (3.25) Sao Paulo (3) 109%
20:00 Ipatinga (2.25) Draw (3.25) Vitoria (2.88) 110%
20:00 Coritiba (2.6) Draw (3.25) Cruzeiro (2.63) 107%
22:10 Atletico-MG (1.73) Draw (3.6) Portuguesa (4.8) 106%
22:10 Fluminense (4) Draw (3.4) Flamengo (2.1) 102%
22:10 Palmeiras (1.73) Draw (3.75) Atletico PR (7) 99%

Serie b
2008-05-31 %
00:30 Sao Caetano (1.67) Draw (3.3) Vilanova G (4.5) View Odds 112%
00:30 CRB (2.25) Draw (3.2) Criciuma (2.8) View Odds 111%
00:30 Juventude (1.5) Draw (3.75) Marilia (6) View Odds 110%
20:10 America RN (2.63) Draw (3.2) Ponte Preta (2.4) View Odds 111%
20:10 Corinthians (1.5) Draw (3.75) Fortaleza (7) View Odds 108%
20:10 Bahia (2.1) Draw (3.25) Gremio (3.2) View Odds 110%
2008-06-01 %
00:30 Gama (2) Draw (3.3) ABC (3.2) View Odds 112%

[bromsgrovegreen]

saw gremio tipped to win at vasco on another forum, any thoughts merlin?