Spanish football 8-9 April

[rcgills]

Alaves v Osasuna:

This game has been declared "high risk" by the National Commission against Violence in Sport. More than 2000 Osasuna fans are expected to make the trip.

Alavés have Martín Astudillo and José María Mena back in the squad, and according to ESPN, the only doubt over their starting lineup is whether Bodipo or Jandro will play up front.

Osasuna will be without Valdo, while Aguirre (the manager) will not be on the bench due to suspension. Ludovic Delporte and Iñaki Muñoz return from suspension.

There are three doubts over the Osasuna starting line up: Ricardo López or Juantxo Elía in goal, Iñaki Muñoz or Raúl García in the midfield and Pierre Webó or Bernardo Romeo up front.

They'll definitely be making two changes, with Miguel Flaño in for Josetxo Romero, who wasn't even in the squad, and Delporte in for Moha.

PROBABLE LINEUPS (ESPN):
ALAVES: Franco Costanzo; Edu Alonso, Juanito, Sarriegi, Ibon Begoña; Astudillo, Carpintero; Quique De Lucas, Nené; Rodolfo Bodipo or Jandro and John Aloisi.
OSASUNA: Ricardo or Elía; Javier Flaño, Cuéllar, Miguel Flaño, Corrales; David López, Puñal, Raúl García or Muñoz, Delporte; Webó or Romeo and Milosevic.
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Given Osasuna's shaky recent form, and the fact that Alaves are 4-2-0 for their last 6 at home (after having failed to win in their first 9 home games), I think Alaves are worth backing here.

Alaves v Osasuna @ 2.60 3pts

[rcgills]

Santander are going to make changes to their line up, with Moratón and Oriol due to start in place of Garay and Pablo Alfaro.

Although midfielder Antonio Tomás has recovered from injury, he's not expected to start.

Barcelona will be without Ronaldinho, having picked up a knock in the Benfica game, they've decided not to risk him. Oleguer is also rested. Giuly should return to the starting lineup.

PROBABLE LINEUPS (ESPN):

RACING: Aouate; Pinillos, Oriol, Moratón or Pablo Alfaro, Ayoze; Damiá, Vitolo, Matabuena, Serrano; Melo and Antoñito.
BARCELONA: Víctor Valdés; Belletti, Puyol, Edmílson, Van Bronckhorst; Deco, Van Bommel, Iniesta, Giuly; Larsson and Eto'o.
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I'm considering whether it's worth opposing Barcelona here. The league is already won, there's no doubt about that (even less doubt if Madrid fail to get a winner v Sociedad in the next 15 minutes), and their focus is now very definitely on the Champions League. Barcelona without Ronaldinho this season have looked a good side, but not a great side. They've not got the best of records away to Santander either, 1-1-2 for their last 4 games, with the 2 defeats being heavy ones, 3-0 and 4-0. Santander aren't the best of sides at home, but they managed a 2-1 win against Valencia, a game which ended Valencia's 16 game unbeaten run. At 6.50, they've got to be worth a point.

Santander v Barcelona @ 6.50 1pt

[mainata]

SPA La Liga, Injuries, April 9 - 08.04.2006

Alaves CARRERAS Lluis D/DMLC * INJURED Alaves POLI DLC * INJURED Alaves PELLEGRINO Mauricio DC * INJURED Alaves BERNHARDT Arthuro FW * INJURED Alaves MENA Jose Maria SC - INJURED Alaves THIAW Pape FW - INJURED Alaves LACEN Medhi D * BACK from injury Osasuna VALDO AM/FRC ** INJURED Osasuna DELPORTE Ludovic D/AML ** BACK from suspension Osasuna MUNOZ Inaki DMC * BACK from suspension Athletic KARANKA Aitor DC ** INJURED Athletic ADURITZ Aritz SC * INJURED Athletic GUTIERREZ Ibon M * INJURED Athletic TARANTINO Francisco DC * INJURED Athletic ESCALONA Miguel GK - INJURED Athletic FELIPE DMC - INJURED Athletic BORDAS Endika M - INJURED Athletic AMOREBIETA Fernando D * BACK from injury Athletic URZAIZ Ismael SC * BACK from injury Mallorca CORTES David D/DMR ** INJURED Mallorca DONI Cristiano AMLC ** INJURED Mallorca FERNANDO NINO DC * INJURED Mallorca CAMPANO Alejandro AMR * INJURED Mallorca POTENZA Alessandro DR ** BACK from injury Espanyol FREDSON DMRC ** INJURED Espanyol MOISES D * INJURED Espanyol MARTIN POSSE FRC - INJURED Espanyol DE LA PENA Ivan AMC *** BACK Atletico IBANEZ Pablo DC *** SUSPENDED Atletico MAXI RODRIGUEZ FRLC ** INJURED Atletico IBAGAZA Ariel AMRC ** BACK from injury Racing DALMAT Stephane AMLC ** INJURED Racing PORTILLA Cristian MR * INJURED Racing PINILLA Mauricio F * BACK from injury Barcelona RONALDINHO FW *** INJURED Barcelona XAVI MC *** INJURED Barcelona MARQUEZ Rafael D/DMC ** INJURED Barcelona MESSI Lionel AM/FRLC ** INJURED Barcelona MOTTA Thiago D/DMLC * INJURED Sevilla DRAGUTINOVIC Ivica DC ** INJURED Sevilla MAKUKULA Ariza SC * INJURED Sevilla PABLO RUIZ DLC * INJURED Sevilla ALFARO Pablo DLC * INJURED Sevilla JESULI AMLC * INJURED Sevilla LOPEZ Jordi DMC * INJURED Sevilla PUERTA Antonio MC * INJURED Zaragoza GIMENEZ Cesar DC * INJURED Zaragoza PONZIO Leonardo DR ** SUSPENDED Zaragoza CANI Ruben AMLC ** SUSPENDED Zaragoza GENERELO David DMC * BACK from suspension Villarreal ALVAREZ Quique DLC ** INJURED Villarreal JOSICO Jose DMRC ** INJURED Villarreal GUAYRE Antonio FLC * INJURED Deportivo VALERON Juan Carlos AMC *** INJURED Deportivo ANDRADE Jorge DC *** INJURED Deportivo DUSCHER Aldo DMC ** INJURED Deportivo ROMERO Enrique DL ** INJURED Deportivo JUANMA DLC ** INJURED Deportivo AMO Pablo DC * INJURED Deportivo TABORDA Sebastian SC * INJURED Deportivo GALLARDO Francisco AMR * INJURED

[GETT1NLOTS]

Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca
The last 6 games for Athletic have all been under 2.5 goals. Mallorca have been involved in 'unders' 8 times out of their last 10 fixtures. The previous meeting between these two ended 1-0 to Athletic. Under 2.5 goals is trading at 1.68 on Betfair at the moment.

Selection - under 2.5 goals.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Edit - I'm talking rubbish.

[GETT1NLOTS]

CD Alaves v Osasuna
Alaves are in reasonable form of late. Their last 6 home games have recorded a 4-2-0 result. Osasuna are a team that rarely draw with only 4 all season out of 31 league fixtures. If we are to hope that this trend continues and discount the draw then Osasunas team selection worries (posted above by RCGills) should persuade us to have a little dabble on the home win.

Selection - CD Alaves - 1 point @ 2.68 (Betfair)

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Almeria are 12-1-2 at home, but Sporting have been picking up a few results away from home recently. 1.66 too short to tempt me on Almeria.

You're not the only one who's been talking rubbish in here, Gett1n. God knows what I was on about earlier in the week, Almeria are playing Ejido, not Gijon

Local derby this one, though, and on that basis I think I'll give it a miss anyway

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by GETT1NLOTS

If we are to hope that this trend continues and discount the draw then Osasunas team selection worries (posted above by RCGills) should persuade us to have a little dabble on the home win.

Maybe wasn't entirely clear in my post, Gett1n, but Osasuna haven't actually got many worries as such, they're only missing Valdo. When I said there are doubts over the starting line up, I think the article I was translating/quoting from meant more in terms of the manager will have to decide, as both are available, rather than that any of those players are actually struggling with injury.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Sevilla v Real Zaragoza
The odds on the home win here are simply ludicrous. Seeing as I don't watch much Spanish football I have to rely on the stats and the information posted up in these threads. But on stats alone you can see that Real Zaragoza have only lost 2 away matches all season and none since the 6th November 2005 where they were beat 1-0 by Real Madrid. The odds are so short on the home win I'll be laying Sevilla in the hope that Real Zaragoza draw fest away from home continues.

Selection - Laying Sevilla - liability 1 point.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Maybe wasn't entirely clear in my post, Gett1n, but Osasuna haven't actually got many worries as such, they're only missing Valdo. When I said there are doubts over the starting line up, I think the article I was translating/quoting from meant more in terms of the manager will have to decide, as both are available, rather than that any of those players are actually struggling with injury.

Cheers RC - I did misunderstand. I'll still be on the home win though as the stats seem to suggest a positive result one way or the other - and I think the home win is much more likely.

[rcgills]

Gett1n, under normal circumstances I'd go along with you there, but bear in mind Zaragoza are playing the Spanish Cup final on Wednesday. They also (according to ESPN) may only be playing their two star strikers, Ewerthon and Milito, for half a game each.

Mind you, who knows what state Sevilla will be in having just returned from a long trip to Russia in the UEFA Cup.

[prinze]

RC what do think of Almeria, they have a couple of teams on their heels and they themselves can take top spot if they win today. Ejido doesnt really do well away. Any major injury worries for Almeria. Thanks buddy

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Of the short-priced homes, Gimnastic are probably the ones that most tempt me. They're 5-1-0 for their last 6 homes, while Albacete have lost quite convincingly in their last 4 aways, 0-3, 0-2, 3-4, 0-3. Gimnastic have also already won 4-1 away to Albacete this season. Will wait for team news, but may well go with Gimnastic here.

I think I will be on Gimnastic here. Albacete will be without two of their top three players in terms of time played this season, defender Peña and top scorer Bermejo. That, together with their poor away form and Gimnastic's excellent home form is enough to convince me.

Gimnastic v Albacete @ 1.66 4pts

[GETT1NLOTS]

Racing Santander v Barcelona
I keep finding reason to bet in this league. Maybe I should come in here more often? Barcelona's price is now 1.78 on the exchanges. That's simply too big a price against a side whose six match home form reads DWDLLL. I realise Barcelona aren't firing on all cylinders at present but I still take this as a value bet.

Selection - Barcelona @ 1.78 (Betfair) - 1 point

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by prinze

RC what do think of Almeria, they have a couple of teams on their heels and they themselves can take top spot if they win today. Ejido doesnt really do well away. Any major injury worries for Almeria. Thanks buddy

Prinze, you must have just missed it, I mentioned it a couple of posts further up the board . Local derby, so for me it's one to avoid. Ejido have been picking up a few points of late too, and although they've mostly been against lower teams, it's still enough to put me off here.