Spanish football 8-9 April

[rcgills]

8 Apr-17:00	Malaga v Getafe		2.37	3.20	2.62
8 Apr-18:00	Cadiz v Real Betis		2.37	3.20	2.62
8 Apr-20:00	Real Madrid v Real Sociedad		1.30	4.33	9.00
8 Apr-22:00	Celta Vigo v Valencia		2.40	3.20	2.60
9 Apr-17:00	Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca		1.83	3.25	3.75
9 Apr-17:00	CD Alaves v Osasuna		2.40	3.00	2.60
9 Apr-17:00	Espanyol v Atletico Madrid		2.30	3.20	2.70
9 Apr-17:00	Sevilla v Real Zaragoza		1.72	3.25	4.50
9 Apr-19:00	Racing Santander v Barcelona		6.00	4.00	1.44
9 Apr-21:00	Villarreal v D Coruna		2.10	3.25	3.00

Segunda

8 Apr-17:00	Real Madrid B v R Ferrol		1.80	3.00	4.33
8 Apr-17:30	Castellon v Levante		2.60	2.80	2.60
8 Apr-17:30	Ciudad de Murcia v Sporting Gijon		2.00	2.75	3.80
8 Apr-17:30	Xerez v Eibar		1.61	3.25	5.00
9 Apr-11:00	Almeria v Poli Ejido		1.66	2.87	5.50
9 Apr-11:00	Huelva v Murcia		1.61	3.25	5.00
9 Apr-16:30	Gimnastic v Albacete		1.66	3.25	4.50
9 Apr-17:00	Hercules v Valladolid		2.20	2.80	3.20
9 Apr-17:00	Malaga B v Elche		2.50	2.60	2.80
9 Apr-17:00	Numancia v Lorca		2.20	2.80	3.20
9 Apr-18:00	Tenerife v Lleida		2.10	2.75	3.50

Odds from Bet365

[rcgills]

First thoughts are that I very much like the look of Deportivo to win at Villarreal. Villarreal will be buzzing after making the Champions League semis, and I think Deportivo may be able to bring them back down to earth. Deportivo are the second best away team in the league behind Barça, and they've also won on their last two visits to Villarreal, 2-0 both times. Will wait for team news before deciding anything though.

If Osasuna play anywhere near as badly as they did last weekend then Alaves are well worth considering.

Atletico seem to have hit a slump after their excellent form for a couple of months. But Espanyol haven't won in 4, and will have their minds on the final of the Copa del Rey, to be played next Wednesday 12th April. Tamudo is struggling with injury at the moment, and the manager has made it clear that he wants him fully fit for the Cup final.

Zaragoza will also no doubt have the Cup final in mind, but Sevilla will be coming off their UEFA Cup game tomorrow, so I'll be avoiding that one.

In the Segunda, the main one that grabs my attention is Numancia v Lorca. Numancia are on an amazing run, 9-3-1 for their last 13 games, and they've won 6 in a row at home now. Lorca are also in excellent form, 10-2-3 for their last 15 games, but those 3 defeats have come in their last 3 away games. Two have been against teams in the top 3, Gimnastic and Almeria, but the other was against second from bottom Malaga B.

I think Numancia are better prepared to cope with the pressure in this one. They were in the Primera last season, having finished runners-up in the Segunda the year before, so they know what it takes at this stage of the season. Lorca meanwhile are a bit of a revelation, as this is their first ever season in the Segunda, they've never previously been higher than the Segunda B. It'd be a fairytale for them to make the Primera, but I think the pressure may start showing on them soon, if it hasn't already with that run of away defeats.

Lorca will be without Jurado (midfielder, 13 games played, so not a regular, although of the games he's played, they're 10-1-2, for game without him they're 5-6-7), suspended. Rubén López (defender, 13 games played) will be out for Numancia following an operation, and will be out for 6 weeks. Juanpa twisted his ankle on Tuesday, and Hamilton Ricard has shoulder problems, but both should be available for this game, as should Tarantino, who missed the last three games through injury.

Numancia are expecting their biggest crowd of the season for this one, with just 2000 seats currently available, from a capacity of just under 10000.

Numancia v Lorca @ 2.20 6pts

In the other games, Xerez bounced back to form tonight with a 3-0 win at Hercules, and should be too good for Eibar, although at a fairly short price. Mind you, Eibar are capable of keeping things tight away from home, just 17 goals conceded in 16 games, and they're 1-9-6 away from home, so maybe best to steer clear of that one.

Almeria are 12-1-2 at home, but Sporting have been picking up a few results away from home recently. 1.66 too short to tempt me on Almeria.

Of the short-priced homes, Gimnastic are probably the ones that most tempt me. They're 5-1-0 for their last 6 homes, while Albacete have lost quite convincingly in their last 4 aways, 0-3, 0-2, 3-4, 0-3. Gimnastic have also already won 4-1 away to Albacete this season. Will wait for team news, but may well go with Gimnastic here.

Well, that's a few early thoughts, more over the weekend once more team news is known.

[farnerud]

Hi rcgills, I'm interested with A.Bilbao home win.

[farnerud]

Suspended Players
(Alaves) Gaspar
(At. Madrid) Pablo
(Cádiz) Fleurquin
(Getafe) Contra, Gavilan
(Malaga) J. Rodriguez, Morales
(Real Madrid) Roberto Carlos
(Zaragoza) Cani, Ponzio

[rcgills]

Hi Farnerud,

Tricky one to call for me, Bilbao v Mallorca. Both teams are in reasonable form, Bilbao just one defeat in 8 games, and Mallorca just one defeat in 9. I'd be surprised if Mallorca won, but I wouldn't rule out the draw there, it's a definite no bet for me.

[rcgills]

Some team news so far:

Celta Vigo v Valencia:

Valencia squad:

Porteros:Cañizares, Butelle.

- Defensas: Miguel, Curro Torres, Albiol, Ayala, Moretti, Marchena, David Navarro.

- Centrocampistas: Albelda, Hugo Viana, Edu, Baraja, Regueiro y Angulo.

- Delanteros: Aimar, Villa y Mista.

Missing: Jorge López, Kluivert, Mora, Carboni, Fabio Aurelio, Vicente and Rufete

Celta squad:

Esteban	Portero
Pinto	Portero
Contreras	Defensa
Méndez	Defensa
Lequi	Defensa
De Ridder	Centrocampista
Ángel	Defensa
Núñez	Delantero
Gustavo López	Centrocampista
Roberto	Centrocampista
Canobbio	Centrocampista
Perera	Delantero
Baiano	Delantero
Sánchez	Delantero
Placente	Defensa
Jonathan	Centrocampista
Iriney	Centrocampista
Oubiña	Centrocampista
Jorge Larena	Centrocampista

They'll be without David Silva (midfielder, missed just 3 games all season), and Jose Enrique (defender, 14 games played) for "contractual reasons", which I assume means they're in some way connected with Valencia.

[rcgills]

Malaga v Getafe:

Malaga squad:

Arnau, Goitia, Litos, Alexis, Gerardo, Antonio Hidalgo, Jesús Gámez, Edgar, Nacho, Valcarce, Manu, Salva, Pablo Couñago, Fernando Sanz, Juan Rodríguez, Bóvio, Gabriel and Antonio López

Morales is suspended.

Getafe squad:

1.Luis;32.Sito;7.Mario Cotelo, 10.Pulido;23.Tena;24.Alberto;14.Paunovic;3.Pernía; 11.Riki;6.Diego Rivas;5.Cubillo;16.Vívar Dorado;17.Pachón;19.D. Güiza;21.Nano;
18.Redondo;15.Paredes;9.Jajá.

No Gavilan there for Getafe, he's suspended, as is Contra. Gavilan has just been called up to the Spanish squad too.
----------------

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad:

Real Madrid squad:

Porteros: Casillas y Diego López.

Defensas: Míchel Salgado, Pavón, Cicinho, Sergio Ramos y Raúl Bravo.

Centrocampistas: Diogo, Gravesen, Zidane, Robinho, Guti, Adrián Martín y Baptista.

Delanteros: Raúl, Ronaldo y Cassano.
Missing: Helguera (manager's decision), Roberto Carlos (suspended) and Beckham, Pablo García, Woodgate and Miñambres (injured).

Think I read somewhere earlier in the week that Woodgate is now due to miss the rest of the season.

Sociedad:

- Porteros: Alberto, Riesgo.

- Defensas: Aitor, Cifu, Labaka, Ansotegi, Garrido.

- Centrocampistas: Xabi Prieto, Novo, Mikel Alonso, Viafara, Garitano, Stevanovic, Larrea, Gabilondo, Mark González.

- Delanteros: Gari, Nihat, Skoubo

They've named a 19-man squad due to worries over Gari Uranga and Mikel Alonso, although both were training normally today. The changes with regard to last week's squad are the return of John Viafara from suspension, and the addition of Igor Gabilondo and Gorka Larrea.
---------

Cádiz v Betis:

Cadiz squad:

Limia, Navas, Vella, Varela, Paz, De Quintana, De la Cuesta, Berizzo, Suárez, Bezares, Morán, Enrique, Estoyanoff, Oli, Sesma, Pavoni, Lobos and Ania.

Injured: Benjamín, Medina, Raúl López, Mirosavljevic and Mario Silva.

Suspended: Fleurquin

Betis squad:

Contreras, Doblas, Arzu, Assunçao, Edu, Joaquín, Juanito, Luis Fernández, Melli, Miguel Ángel, Nano, Óscar López, Rivas, Xisco, Rivera, Robert, Tardelli and Varela

Dani is out injured.
---------------

Nothing really grabs my attention from the Saturday Primera Liga games to be honest. Real Madrid should beat Sociedad, but I'm not interested at that price. Getafe are now safe and so I'm not sure how motivated they'll be. The other two games, for me, could go any of three ways.

[rcgills]

One game in the Spanish Segunda B Group 4 which caught my eye. Having seen team news, I'm a bit less confident than I was before, but still worth small stakes, I think. Linares are 3rd, they're at home to Cordoba who are 8th. Cordoba are 10 points off of the play off places with 8 games to go, so they're looking unlikely to be going anywhere this season.

Linares have a superb home record this season, 11-3-0. Cordoba have a pretty decent away record, 5-8-2, but I think by now a draw's going to be no good to them, and I think that might play into Linares' hands. Linares will be without Romerito and Chus through suspension, while Chico and Bordi, their joint top scorers (despite Chico being a defender) with 7 goals were doubtful during the week, but are now expected to play. Cordoba will be without Pierini injured, while their first choice keeper (whose name I've now forgotten, think it was Valle or something similar) has been struggling, but is expected to play.

As I say, the team news has left me less confident than I was before, but I think odds of 1.90 for a team that's 11-3-0 at home for the season are worth taking.

Linares v Córdoba @ 1.90 3pts

Was also originally interested in Cartagena away to Diter Zafra. Cartagena are top, with 57 points from 30 games, Diter Zafra are bottom, with 24 points from 30 games. Cartagena's away form isn't the best, 6-4-5, but Diter Zafra's home form is very poor, 3-4-8, and they've taken a few real thrashings there too - 0-5, 1-5, 0-4, 0-3.

I've already had a nibble on this one myself yesterday when the odds came out (Cartagena @ 1.90), but I've since found out that they'll be missing top scorer Sanchez Parra (14 goals) through suspension, so I wouldn't recommend this one now.

Edit - By the way, the Linares game is Sat evening, the Cartagena one is Sunday afternoon.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by farnerud

Suspended Players
(Alaves) Gaspar
(At. Madrid) Pablo
(Cádiz) Fleurquin
(Getafe) Contra, Gavilan
(Malaga) J. Rodriguez, Morales
(Real Madrid) Roberto Carlos
(Zaragoza) Cani, Ponzio

Where did you get that list from, Farnerud? There's no mention of Rodriguez being suspended for Malaga on www.lfp.es, and he's in the squad. Mind you, there seem to be quite a lot of suspensions get overturned in Spain, maybe he made a successful appeal or something.

[igor5]

cuidad murcia-sporting gijon

cuidad is playing exelent in last couple of round in 4 games they won 10 points ,cuidad is playing in series now they are on fire

gijon is plaing very decadent footbal with very little goals(80,6% of the games finish under) cuidad is having 14 draw ,in 31 games goal difrence is 29:24

h2h 0:2 3:2

if suidad score goal they should win this ,i think that they are in beter form so probable gonna win this

suidad murcia@2.10 4 pts


xerez- eibar in this game xerez is favorite ,but i am not gonna put my money om xerez in that low price 1.6 there is no value on this game........


real b-ferrol
i was loking on this game for away win ,ferrol is above the line every point is important for them,thay are playing beter away from home ,real is in the midle of the table save from relegation but real is unpredictible ,i am gonna look for more info away win have good odds 4.5 so maybe 1-2 pts on them just for fun....

castelon -levante is game that could go any way,something is not right with levante i don`t now what but in last 3 games levante recive 9 goals!!!
maybe over is good option

[farnerud]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Where did you get that list from, Farnerud? There's no mention of Rodriguez being suspended for Malaga on www.lfp.es, and he's in the squad. Mind you, there seem to be quite a lot of suspensions get overturned in Spain, maybe he made a successful appeal or something.

it may be as you say, i checked again and rodriguez's name has been removed.

http://futbol.sportec.es/competicion...onados.asp?c=1

[bajbos]

What do you think about bet against Malaga B?

Malaga A will probably move to second league and then Malaga B will automaticly go to the third league! So, Malaga B can sell(lose) next matches!

Tell me, what do you think about this theory?

[igor5]

there is good posibility that malaga will be going to secunda so what you saying is very posible , i wos thinking of that couple weeks ago when malaga b lose home game from poli ejido thad they maybe not gonna put a god games anymore beacouse that they alredy are in lower league beccouse of malaga A situation

i am thinking of put some cash on elche away they are not so good(3-3-9 13:25)but in last 3 games they draw with leida 0-0,and lost only 0-1 from gimnastic & murcia
elche is 5 points from the line so maybe 3 points from this game will be just what they need to stay for sure in secunda

maybe rc gonna help us with this

[rcgills]

I'd be very surprised to see any throwing of matches going on. If Malaga B were found to have thrown matches, presumably Malaga FC as a whole (i.e. the first team too) would be punished for it, so let's face it, it would be a pretty stupid thing to do.

Malaga B have been very poor this season in any case, let's face it, half the teams they've played at home this season have beaten them without having to pay them for the privilege.

I'm sure they will lose a few more games between now and the end of the season, but I'm equally sure it'll just be because they're a poor team rather than because they're throwing their matches.

[rcgills]

Villarreal v Deportivo:

Villarreal will be without captain Quique Alvarez and José Moreno Verdú 'Josico' through injury tomorrow.

Gonzalo Rodríguez is also doubtful, although included in the squad, and they'll be leaving the decision until the last moment. If he's out, together with Alvarez's injury, that'll leave them with just Juanma Peña as a recognised centre back, and it would probably (according to ESPN) be César Arzo (just 13 games played this season) who would play alongside Peña at the back.

They've also announced that Mariano Barbosa will be taking over in goal for the next three games, since first choice keeper Viera will be suspended for the first leg of the Champions League against Arsenal, and so they want to give Barbosa some match practice ahead of that match.

Deportivo also have injury problems. Aldo Duscher is out, along with Juanma Delgado and Francisco Gallardo (who missed the last game too), plus the long term injured players, Jorge Andrade, Juan Carlos Valerón and Sebastián Taborda.

ESPN also say that Deportivo have decided that Diego Tristán will be on the bench, with Javier Arizmendi playing up front, but then they go and include Tristan in their probable line up .

Duscher will be replaced by Canadian international Julien de Guzmán.

PROBABLE LINE UPS (ESPN):

VILLARREAL: Barbosa; Venta, Peña, Gonzalo or Arzo, Arruabarrena; Tacchinardi, Senna, Román, Sorín; Forlán and Guille Franco.
DEPORTIVO: Molina; Manuel Pablo, Coloccini, Héctor, Capdevila; Víctor, Sergio, De Guzmán, Munitis; Iago and Tristán.
---------------
Given Deportivo's injury problems, I think I'll have to give this one a miss, no bet for me.