Portugal - 1st division 7-10/4

[nasty_nas]

	Nacional - Belenenses	72	1.95	3.20	3.49	07.04.2006 - 22:30
	Leiria - Guimaraes	70	2.40	3.17	2.64	08.04.2006 - 18:15
	Sporting Lisbon - Porto FC	72	2.26	3.10	2.87	08.04.2006 - 21:45
	Coimbra - Naval	70	1.95	3.16	3.52	09.04.2006 - 17:00
	Ferreira - Rio Ave	69	2.09	3.15	3.16	09.04.2006 - 17:00
	Gil Vicente - Amadora	71	2.09	3.18	3.13	09.04.2006 - 17:00
	Benfica Lisbon - Marítimo	71	1.32	4.34	8.05	09.04.2006 - 19:30
	Setubal - Braga	68	2.61	3.15	2.43	09.04.2006 - 21:45
	Penafiel - Boavista Porto	62	4.39	3.38	1.69	10.04.2006 - 21:30

Odds taken from betexplorer.com


Vitoria Guimaraes needs 3 point badly,
while Leiria's playing for nothing...

any info about this game?
i'm thinking of backing Guimaraes here...

[igor5]

yes leiria is in the midle of the table but leiria is not a team against i gonna put my money ,they are inpredictible ,they smash benfica couple weeks ago but also are capable of losing from poorest teams in the league
but guimaraes is playing good in last 7 games(home 2-1-1 7:2 away 0-3-0 3:3)they lost last weekend at home from sporting 0-1, odds are great for guimarzes ,maybe some team info gonnna help us

interesting game is Nacional - Belenenses
both of the team are playing like shite in last couple of round( maybe Belenenses is little better) nacional is having good chance for plaing in uefa next year 3 pts behind boavista ,but form in last 2 mounts is terible in last 3 home games 0-2-1 3:4 defence is not so good like in the past mounts ,so maybe is some value is this game on Belenenses ,beaucuse they are fighting for his life,away form in last 4 games 2-0-2 5:4 ,4 point above the line so every point is important ,maybe here is the place for same points

3 pts @3.50 Belenenses

derbi of the weekend is the game for the title and first thouth is home win ,sporting is playing exelent 10 wins in the row ,more info later ,from the team news

[kompressaur]

just reading this-

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[font=']Round 30[/font][font='][/font]

Last round was a negative one for the first time in a couple of weeks. There were no major surprises though, but in these last rounds we always have more problems, because most of the teams are still fighting for UEFA Cup places, or to avoid relegation, therefore, we will still see many unpredictable matches right up to the end.



Nacional - Belenenses 07-04-2006 22:30

My pick: home win 4/10



Nacional lost at Braga, in yet another poor match. They were outplayed for the most of the match, and if there was to be another goal, it would have been for Braga. Nacional clearly shows bad form and tiredness. For Belenenses’s visit, Coach Manuel Machado has midfielder Juliano Spadacio out trough suspension. Furthermore, midfielder Miguel Fidalgo is out injured and influential midfielder Bruno should be kept aside for this match to take a rest. Forward Serginho Baiano is still doubtful but should return in time to play this Friday.

Belenenses deserved at least the draw at home against Benfica. They were better than Benfica for the whole second half, and a bad decision by the ref cost them a penalty that could have made the game level. Now this visit to Madeira comes in a bad time for the Blues, since Couceiro has a couple of unavailable players: midfielder Sandro Gaucho and defender Ruben Amorim are suspended, and wingers Paulo Sérgio and Ahmada are doubtful since they are still recovering from injuries.



Nacional is simply falling apart, they are now 1-2-7 from last 10 matches, and here are included a couple of home defeats to opponents with the likes of Belenenses. However given their magnificent performance in the 1^st round of the league, they are still in the fight for a UEFA Cup place with Boavista who is 3 points above, but still has very hard matches to play. Belenenses is 3 points above the relegation zone, and despite facing this match as a final, I think their situation is not as bad as it seems, given the fact that they have 34 points, but still have 2 matches at home in which they can reach the 40 points lifeline. For Nacional it is a last chance to get themselves together and make a final sprint. It is not a confident bet, but I am taking Nacional to come back to winning ways.



U.Leiria – Vit.Guimarães 08-04-2006 18:30

My pick: away win dnb 5/10



Leiria was a major disappointment at Penafiel. The team looked lust and took this match for granted. The fact is that they only avoided the loss in the dying minutes of the game, but deserved to loose, not only because they were outplayed, but also because of their attitude. Now they will be hosting Guimarães, a match in which coach Jorge Jesus will be without forward Maciel suspended for 2 matches, and midfielder Hadson and winger Touré although questionable should be a part of the squad. The only confirmed absentee is forward Ferreira who has been sidelined for a couple of weeks now.

Guimarães lost at home to Sporting in a very nervous match by both teams. Vitória wasn’t quite up to their best, and a silly mistake at the back by both central defenders, offered Liedson the only goal of the game. For this difficult trip to Leiria, Coach Vitor Pontes has a full squad to choose from, as there are no injured or suspended players.



Very hard match to predict here. Leiria is in a bad period, and is now 3 matches without winning, however their 37 points gives them enough space to make mistakes. On the other hand, Guimarães is in a dramatic situation, they have only 30 points and are 4 points under the relegation zone, which means they must win the game if they want to keep their hopes alive. By my estimations, Leiria needs only 3 more points to guarantee a non-relegation place, and Guimarães needs at least 8 … So I expect that Guimarães will be looking for the win more than Leiria itself. Of course it can go either way, but Guimarães needs the win more than Leiria, so I am going to take them on level ball



Sporting – FC Porto 08-04-2006 21:45 (Title match)

My pick: under 2.5 goals 4/10 and away win dnb 5/10



Sporting survived the last test before this decisive match by winning at struggling Guimarães. They were lucky, but they also were very calm trough the whole match, and defended very well once again. Liedson took an offer from the opponent defence and did the rest. Paulo Bento has a full squad to choose from, because Liedson’s minor injury is not a worry, since he will be 100% for the derby.

FC Porto easily disposed of Gil Vicente like expected. It was however a more easy job, with a penalty and against a 9 men team of Gil to get the win. Once again Porto seemed to play just enough, although they really looked solid and in total control of the match right from the beginning. In this decisive trip to Alvalade, Co Adriaanse welcomes back star player Lucho Gonzalez after injury, with the exception of long term injured players Sokota, Bruno Moraes and Cesar Peixoto, only left back Marek Cech is doubtful, but he should be OK to take his place this Saturday evening.



Both teams are in full force coming into this match, with the best players available, and in good form. Sporting comes from 10 straight wins, and Porto’s last defeat was at Benfica with an unfortunate error of Vitor Baia. The two teams are very solid at the moment, with perfectly designed formations and tactics, which means we will see a very careful match. Given Porto has two more points than Sporting, it will be more important for Sporting to win, since they will be dependent of Porto’s results until the end. But they will have to be careful, because if Porto wins, then Sporting looses all their chances to be champions. Porto will be looking to take control of the game, and defend well.

I think we may see a surprise here, with Porto coming to Lisbon and wrap the league here. Sporting should appear confident, but nervous, and Porto is much more experienced in these kind of matches, and has very good wingers upfront that will disable Sporting’s right and left back from moving too much up field. With Helton in goal, I think Porto has much more chances to win at Alvalade, especially if they can take care of Liedson and Moutinho, I think Porto has a great chance to win this match. I am taking the under 2.5 goals, and a Porto win on level ball, since I rate this match 50-50, so odds on Porto are value IMHO.



Paços Ferreira – Rio Ave 09-04-2006 17:00

My pick: under 2.5 goals 4/10 & draw 2/10



Paços comes from a defeat at Figueira da Foz against Naval. It was another pretty hard fought match, in which Naval was luckier, and managed a late goal and won the game. In this weekend home fixture against Rio Ave, coach José Mota welcomes back powerhouse forward João Paulo after a 3 week absence trough injury. However, adding to central defender Geraldo’s injury, defender Edson has also been injured and is likely to miss out on this Sunday’s match. Midfielders Freddy and Rui Dolores are back after injuries and are ready to play.

Rio Ave grabbed a precious win against Setubal, in another pretty dull match, in which they scored an early goal, but did nothing more since. It was a boring match, but the win was more important and they got it. Coach João Eusébio will be once again without midfielder Delson who has sustained an injury and has returned to the injured list. Striker Evandro is also likely to miss out this Sunday’s clash trough injury.



It will be another dramatic match this one. Paços is more will than quality, just like Rio Ave, and if it wasn’t for such poor defences I would go for a high under 2.5 goals bet, so I will lower a bit that stake. Looking at 1X2 perspective, I think this is a triple match, since Paços is nowhere near past year’s quality, and Rio Ave will be looking for a draw here, taking advantage of set pieces to try and score. I think we could see a one goal margin win for either side, but the odds on the draw do push me to try it out.



Académica - Naval 09-04-2006 17:00

My pick: home win 5/10



Académica lost 2-3 at Amadora after a spectacular recovery by Estrela. The truth is that Académica was unfortunate, they were ahead for the whole game, but two goals in 2 minutes turned the match around and inflicted them a morale destroying defeat. For this visit of Naval, Coach Nelo Vingada has got a lot of problems, since he will be without defenders Pedro Silva and Gélson both suspended. But the worse comes with the injured list, since there are 5 regulars in the injured list: Nuno Luis, Dionattan, Sarmento, Danilo and Paulo Adriano.

Naval managed a moralizing win over Paços de Ferreira with a late goal by Fajardo. Coach Rogério Gonçalves has much less problems in his squad for this match at Académica since the only new absentee will be influential defender Nelson Veiga suspended. However, defenders Saulo and China are back from injuries, just like forward Gilmar who has just returned from an injury.



Académica has to capitalize on home factor here. These are two neighbour city clubs so it is a regional derby, in which everything can happen. Académica has been unlucky in a couple of matches, but there has also been some lack of concentration on their defence that has been costing them points. This is a match that is worth quite a lot for both teams, but the win is crucial here for Académica given that they only have 33 points, and a defeat here may put them in relegation places. I am anticipating a good match, with Académica attacking all the way, and maybe with an inspired Joeano they can easily solve this match, against a not so good defence like Naval’s.







Gil Vicente – E.Amadora 09-04-2006 17:00

My pick: home win dnb 4/10



Gil Vicente was easily beaten by Porto last Sunday. Despite being pushed back by the ref, and no point during the game did Gil Vicente seemed like they could do anything against a much better opponent. Rookie coach Paulo Alves has a few problems to solve with regular midfielders Bruno Tiago and Braíma suspended after being sent off at Porto, and goalkeeper Paulo Jorge is also a confirmed absentee trough injury. The good news is the return of central defender Grégory after serving a one-match ban.

Estrela managed an impressive comeback after being 0-2 down, the team showed great fighting spirit, and supported by an inspired Rui Borges, turned the match around in the final two minutes of the game. There are a couple of good news for this weekend : defenders Mauricio and Amoreirinha, and midfielder Emerson are fully fit from their injuries, and defender Hugo Carreira and forward Andre Barreto despite still returning from injury should also be available. On the injured list remain N’daye, Bruno Santos and Valdir.



Capital match for Gil Vicente who has only 29 points and are already 4 points behind the life line, so anything other than a win puts them in a very problematic situation. Estrela is a bit more secure with 36 points, but they still aren’t safe, although a draw should be more than enough in a match like this. I think Gil Vicente will go all out to try and win this one because they really have no other option; the problem is that Estrela is a perfect team for these matches, because they have good and fast forwards that could kill Gil Vicente on the counter. Given the need for the win, I will risk a few stakes on a Gil Vicente win, I can’ back them much, as they simply have played awful soccer during the last few rounds.



Benfica - Marítimo 09-04-2006 19:30

My pick: under 2.5 goals 4/10



Benfica comes from a suffered win at Belenenses where they were down by a goal but managed to comeback to get a 2-1 win. However they played very bad for most of the 2^nd half. They have their most important match of the week tonight against Barcelona, so they may appear tired this Sunday. For this Sunday, Coach Ronald Koeman has central defender Anderson suspended, and Nuno Gomes is doubtful, and probably will miss out this Sunday’s visit of Marítimo. The good news is the return of midfielder Manuel Fernandes after suspension and winger Marco Ferreira is fully recovered from his injury. Defender Alcides continues to be the only injured player and therefore unavailable.

Marítimo managed a crucial point at Boavista, but they were quite lucky because they were outplayed for the most of the match and still managed to get a point. For this visit to Benfica, Coach Ulisses Morais has no suspended players, but defensive midfielder Willians and offensive midfielder Caíco should be absent trough injury. The good news is the return of forward Sergipano and midfielder Fahél after being some weeks absent from the first team.



It is a rough match to bet on. Benfica should be tired after the visit to Nou Camp, but they will play after Sporting v Porto match, and they can capitalise on this match, since one (or both) of the teams may loose points, and therefore Benfica can still have some hope to get closer to the first 2 places. On the other side Marítimo has a 4 point margin over relegation places, but a draw or a win here gives them a great room and breathing space. It seems Coach Ulisses Morais has given a new morale to the team as they come from 2 consecutive good results.I am convinced that they will travel to Benfica to try and get a point. I reckon it will be a hard fought match between two not so in-form teams, so I am taking the under 2.5 goals outcome, but low stakes, since a Marítimo goal can change everything.



V.Setubal – Sp.Braga 09-04-2006 21:45

My pick: away win dnb 7/10 and under 2.5 goals 5/10



Setubal went down at Rio Ave 0-1 in a pretty boring match. Again Setubal proved to have lot of problems to create chances upfront, and after being 1 goal down, they never seemed like they could come back. This weekend coach Hélio sees the return of midfielder Nandinho and therefore has a full squad to choose from with the exception of long term injured forward Fábio Hempel.

Braga won 1-0 over Nacional, but despite the single goal margin, the fact is that they had most of the match under control. They had some big absentees, but still they were superior to a mediocre Nacional team and clearly deserved the win. For this visit to Setubal, Coach Jesualdo Ferreira still has a couple of headaches to solve: Marinelli, Hugo Leal, Davide, Paulo Jorge and Cesinha remain injured and will be away from this match. 3^rd choice keeper Eduardo has picked up a knock but should return. The good news is the return of striker João Tomás and right back Luis Filipe after serving a match suspension.



I believe Braga can grab a good result here. Setubal is a bit asleep, probably already preparing the Cup final just like they did last season. Of course that a win for Setubal here, puts them back in the fight for 5^th place, but they are already guaranteed of a UEFA Cup place next season, so their motivation is not the highest. Braga on the other hand, need the win in order to stay in touch with 3^rd place Benfica, and still dream of Champ League shot next season. If it weren’t for all the absentees, I would go for a straight Braga win, but given the circumstances, I am taking Braga on dnb, and of course since we have two typical under 2.5 goals teams I am also taking this chance to make a few bucks.



Penafiel – Boavista 10-04-2006 21:30

My pick: away win dnb 10/10



Penafiel comes from a surprising performance against Leiria, where they lead for the most of the match and were unfortunate not to take the win, because of a late Leiria goal. Still Penafiel deserved the win, they played without any pressure, and this was good for them. For Boavista’s visit, Luís Castro will be without suspended Bruno Amaro (regular midfielder) and forward Zé Rui. Furthermore, central defender Odaír remains suspended for 6 months after seeing his appeal denied, and striker Roberto also continues suspended after failing a drugs-test.

Boavista was unlucky against Marítimo, because they attacked for the most of the match, even when they were 1-0 up, they continued to look for goals, and they eventually conceded the draw in a counter attack, which is strange, especially for a team that is already on top of match to concede a goal on the counter. Coach Carlos Brito has winger Manuel José unavailable has he is serving a one match ban. Goalkeepers Marco and William have resumed training, and especially in William’s case he should return to the starting eleven this Monday.



Penafiel is already relegated with only 14 points and have nothing to play for. However under the exact same conditions they performed very well last week and they could do the same this week, because they have no pressure on top them. Boavista comes to this match with only one thing on their minds, and that is to win. They are now 5 matches without a win (including a semi-final knock out of the cup) and therefore the league is their only chance to get to a UEFA Cup spot. They are 3 points above Nacional, and a win here, away from home, should be decisive in order for them to secure them the 5^th place. Boavista still has matches against Benfica and Porto, so they can’t afford to drop points here.

There is a big class difference between both teams, and I think Boavista has a good chance of taking the win here. Good odds on this one, and the need for a win, drives me to a solid stake on Boavista.

from http://benfikistaportugal.blogspot.com/[/font]

[igor5]

for tomorrow bet of the week shoud be boavista,no need for too much of explanation ,penafiel is is on the road for the second league they playing for there pride!!!!but boavista needs points for uefa cup.

boavista is curently fifth, last place that ensure uefa cup with same number of points like nacional

penafiel home record is 2-4-8 ( 3 of that draw in last 3 games with leiria 1-1: gil vicente 1-1 : pacos ferrera 2:2)
baovista away record 4-6-4
boavista in the last 6 games is playing very bad 4 draw & 2 loses,but before that they have on exelent run with 8 wins in a row, boavista is a team that don`t recive many goals,on the other side is penafiel with only 19 goals scored in 29 games

boavista did`t have any problems with ingures and suspensions so full squad for this game
coach of boavista is saying that only win is option in this match to keep up uefa spot ,next week bovista is playing at home with benfica ,and after that vitoria guimaraes on the road ,and they visit nacional ,so they need this win to meke some gap from nacional for that uefa spot


boavista@ 1.75 8 pts

[lili1974]

i totally agree with u guys on the Penafiel - Boavista game.
Penafiel is the weakest team in the league. They can only play very physical football. They face several absences!!
Boavista on the other hand needs the win for their UEFA cup spot.
IMO they will take 3 points. Only ref or a magic evening could save Penafiel.
Im taking Boavista with full confidence.

[Zozo the Duke]

Penafiel - Boavista - 2 (1.70) 5/10

Boavista is chasing spot on the table that brings UEFA Cup matches next season. Now they are playing against the poorest team in the league, Penafiel. Penafiel are playing very bad physical football with making a lot of fouls and receiving many yellow and red cards in their matches. Boavista has tough schedule in the next weeks playing against Benfica and Porto in their next 4 matches and this is great opportunity to take some points in eyes of that matches.


Penafiel will relegate for sure and get back in the place they belong. They are not first league material for sure. They are in their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 22 in that matches.


Boavista is only under the big trio according to the form in the last 10 matches. They took 18 points in the last 10 matches but they only managed to score 10 and to concede only 5 goals. But I think that even reserve team of Boavista will be too much for poor Penafiel.



These teams meet eachother four times in recent history and Boavista won three of that four with only one draw, last season’s one at Penafiel 1:1. In first match this season Boavista won 2:1 at home and I believe that they will take all three points tonight too